Totally agree with you on Ivanovic. Saw some of her matches late last year and she looked very impressive.

Thanks for the link to the live TV coverage. I wish I had of known about that earlier in the week, watching a live scoreboard update can be quite agonising.

Cheers,

Mark

Gald to hear we're on the same side Sparks - always nice to have a bit of solidarity.

If Ivanovic wins the profit should just about cover the cost of my therapy sessions after Craybas @#!*ed me.

I think every man and their dog was on Cervanova yesterday, somehow I think Craybas will get her just desserts from Safina tonight though.

Anyways, let's go Ivanovic. Looking forward to watching the match

Update

Bets 85; Won 61; Lost 24
At Flat Stakes: Bet 85 units; Won 13.87 units; ROI 16.3%


Greatful for the win last night but Ivanovic will find it much harder today. Her price came in a bit so, to make it fairer, I'll reduce it to $1.45 in the record.

I have to use early lines as I won't have time to post later today. Prices may shift so I'll adjust during update if needed.


Dulko v Safarova
SF: Estoril

Experience vs inexperience a big factor here. Dulko not only has a better clay record but also has made many more final appearances than her opponent today. Safarova, who has only played 18 rated clay games, has performed extremely well to get this far in the tournament. However she has yet to meet any one in Dulko's class and will find it a lot harder today. Moreover, most of her form comes form the Challenger circuit. Dulko's running hot this week having had 3 good wins agianst Bondarenko,Zheng and Foretz. While none of these players are superstars, they're ceratinly in the same class, if not better, than 18-year-old Safarova. One also has to remember that Safarova was easily beaten by the 254 ranked Vesnina on clay during the first round of the Civitavecchia Challenger less than 2 weeks ago. My program rates Dulko a 76% chance of wiining.


Dulko $1.40
(available at a few smaller bookies but fair indication)


Henin-Hardenne v Ivanovic
SF: Warsaw

Ivanovic may well be exceeding expectations this week but she has yet to meet someone of Henin's temperament and class. While the Serb won yesterday, Dechy was definitely in the game while also managing to expose a few of Ivanovic's frailties. Ivanovic is, without doubt, an up-and-coming talent but Henin will have a potential final against mega arch-rival Clijsters clearly in her sights. Short odds, but Henin's clinical dispatch of Schydner yesterday points to her current form. As a point of interest, Henin said in a post match interview that the heavy/wet conditions evident during her match with Kabchi were very hard to deal with and that they hindered her power game. The forecast is clear today but I think she'd still prevail either way.

Henin $1.24
(available at a few smaller bookies but fair indication)

Agree with both of those picks mate.

I only saw bits and pieces of the Ivanovic match last night and from what I saw she seemed to lack the killer instinct to put her opponent away. Too many unforced errors on key points and if she does that again tonight against the classier Henin-Hardenne she will be looking at a very lopsided scoreline.

Cheers,

Mark

Update

Bets 87; Won 62; Lost 25
At Flat Stakes: Bet 87 units; Won 13.12 units; ROI 15.1%


Henin did enough to beat Ivanovic without looking too convincing while Dulko put in an absolute shocker. One has to question her temperament after such performances - a mental note for another day.

Na Li v Sfarova.
Estoril Final

I'm not convinced Safarova won on her own merits yesterday - more an instance of Dulko losing the plot with a large number of unforced errors. One thing I strongly believe is that Na Li will not 'fold' and will play to the very end. She's proved my assessment of her from wrong this week with a clinical display of power shotmaking - amply displayed in her 6:1 6:1 demolition of the classy yet fragile Safina. I didn't think Li's game was suited to clay and she has little experience on the surface but again, I was clearly wrong. There's been plenty of upsets this week so anything can happen yet I'm still confident enough to take the short odds.

Li $1.27 @ 5Dimes


Note: According to my program Kuznetsova is value around the $3 mark that is currently on offer. However I personally don't like betting against Henin. One thing my algorithms don't factor is finals pressure and I'm sure Justine will be keen to beat Kuznetsova who bested her arch-rival Clijsters. I'd like to bet on Henin but she's too short and was a little up and down yesterday by her high standards.

Bets 88; Won 62; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 88 units; Won 12.12 units; ROI 13.8%

Peng lost last night so a poor end to a poor week.

More chaos today as bookies are excruciatingly slow to price up. I'll list bets and very early lines as there's only about 2 hours before the start of play and only a handful of bookies are online for WTA. I'm still crunching numbers but have placed the following bets.

Garrigues v Panova
Berlin: Round 1

Clay specialist v returning from illness and hard-court specialist Panova.

Garrigues $1.50


Pierce v Chakvetadze
Berlin: Round 1

Experience vs inexperience. But for 1 game, Pierce has been in solid form over past 2-3 weeks.

Pierce $1.45


Peschke v Sucha
Berlin: Round 1

Solid clay-couter who cruised through qualies up against out-of-form Sucha coming off a double bagel last week.

Peschke $1.50

Bets 90; Won 64; Lost 26
At Flat Stakes: Bet 90 units; Won 13.02 units; ROI 14.5%

Two wins and a void as Sucha withdrew and was replaced by LL Haynes.

Very jumbled start to the week in terms of bookies prices. There was a wide discrepancy in the early odds yesterday and some very attractive early prices - even a few arbs available. I'm not sure why, but there was also a lot on money traded on Betfair - again some very interesting prices. It's a pity there aren't more days like it!

Garrigues' price came in fairly quickly so I'll record her at $1.45 in the record as opposed to the early $1.50.

Please note: I'm going to introduce half-unit stakes for betting purposes. Flat stakes are a great means of comparing various tipping systems but it makes it difficult to back outsiders on a consistent basis. This also permits a little conservatism during the topsy-turvy changeover between surfaces.

My personal betting stakes are proportional to my perceived overlay - it's a modified form of Kelly betting.


Randriantefy v Dechy
Berlin: Round 1

Dechy's a good chance of winning this but the price on Randriantefy is too high. Randriantefy played one poor game against Na Li last week so I feel her price is an over reaction. Remember Dechy was beaten on red clay by the unheralded Muesberger in the Fed Cup less than two weeks ago. She also played poorly against Paszek in the same series. Her record on clay is a competent 60/49 compared to Randriantefy's 114/59. Punters are probably reacting to Dechy's solid showing in her loss to Ivanovic in Warsaw but I wouldn't be taking the low odds on that result alone. Like all players Randriantefy can have bad days but there's no way she should be rated a 30% chance of winning as the average prices suggest.

Randriantefy $3.35 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT.

Savchuk v Tanasugarn
Morocco: Round 1

Not too many bookies pricing this up but Savchuk's a real chance. Tanasugarn may be about 100 ranking places higher than her opponent but nearly all her form is on hard. Her clay record stands at 12/33 and she only plays two or three torunaments on the surface each season. Savchuk is a young up-and-comer who played in Warsaw last week where she won three qualies and her first round match against the highly-rated Pennetta. It's true that Pennetta has been troubled by injury but Savchuk has also cruised through the qualies this week and should be well used to the conditions. This is Tanasugarn's first WTA game on the dirt since last year's French Open.

Savchuk $1.80 @ Interwetten 1 UNIT
(There could be better prices later - Interwetten have poor margins but not that many books are posting lines on Morocco)

Sorry for the late info but there's still 2.5 hour for the first game and about 4 hours before the second game. (My internet server dropped out this arvo).

Peng v Vento-Kabchi.
Berlin: Round 2

Peng may not be a superstar on clay but then neither is Kabchi. The Chinese player is improving with every game and she always display a great deal of tenacity. The surface isn't made for her power game but she often makes up for it with good movement. Her 30/7 clay career record is improving each week while kabchi's is still as poor as ever (27/44). The prices are on the value line for Peng but she has made great strides in the past few weeks.

Peng $1.60 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Peschke v Zvonereva
Berlin: Round 2

The question here is whether Zvonereva's dreadful form slump will continue. The last few weeks of the hardcourt season were poor by her standards and her efforts in Charlston and Warsaw were very ordinary. On her day she has a great clay game so today's outcome will depend a lot on her attitude. She sounds very 'disappointed' during post match interviews. To be sure, Peschke is no superstar but she's been playing well over the past few weeks and has the benefit of some solid wins in the qualies. She also played well at Amelia Island reaching the third round after coming through qualies.

Peschke $2.70 generally available HALF UNIT

Bets 94; Won 67; Lost 27
Units Staked: 93 units; Won 15.64 units; ROI 16.8%

(the above format has changed very slightly as I've added the use of half units)


Three wins and a loss so a good night. Funnily enough the bet I was most confident of - Savchuk - ended up being the loser. Randriantefy drifted to $3.60 at some books and Peschke got close to $3.00 but I'll leave them as they were in the records.

I'll post early lines and can adjust prices in the record if they come in. Probably better to get info out early after my ISP's dropout yesterday.


Pierce v Likhovtseva
Berlin: Round 2

Pierce has been in good form recently and has only had the one poor game during the clay swing (losing to the in-form Vives at Charleston). Judging by her interviews she's very determined to have a good clay season and has high aims for Roland Garros this year. Pierce has a solid 90/41 record on the surface and relies on her power as her 'large' frame means she's not the best mover. Likhovtseva is a real journeywoman who, at age 29, is nearing the end of her career. She doesn't seem to favour any surface and is a competent 65/54 on the surface. Both players are known to throw in shockers every now and again but Pierce has the form and mental edge for mine.

Pierce $ 1.68 @ 1 Unit.
(I don't bet at Hills but this is an early line - should be others soon)


Randriantefy v Shaughnessy
Berlin: Round 2

I wrote about Randriantefy yesterday so won't repeat it here. She comes up against Shaughnessy who was very nearly beaten by the lowly-ranked Prusova yesterday. Much of this rustiness may have been due to a nagging back injury that has forced her to retire twice in the past month. Ive never rated Shaughnessy on clay as she relies too much on her serve and is far more at home on hardcourts. Her career record is an average 60/53 with far fewer wins over competent clay-court specialists. Huge odds in my opinion.

Randriantefy $1.83 @ Will Hills 1 Unit.


Pennetta v Jankovic
Berlin: Round 2

Pennetta has won two tournaments on red clay this year and though the fields weren't that strong, she is still a classy player on the dirt. Her carrer record stands at 85/38 compared to Jankovic's 34/25. The only cloud over Pennetta is a recent foot injury but judging by her result and general play yesterday, she seems to be over it (she withdrew form Charlston 3 weeks ago). Jankovic's a tenacious competitor and this game is sure to be close, but the odds on her are surprisingly low. This would have been a full unit but for the small injury concern.

Pennetta $2.50 @ Will Hills HALF UNIT.


Martinez v Dulko
Berlin: Round 2

Martinez has been a bit up and down over the past few weeks after a great start to the hardcourt season. Having said that, Dulko is one of the moodiest players on tour - as a seen by her total capitulation in losing to safarova last week. After losing the first set tiebreak she just spat the dumy and stopped playing - going on to lose 0:6. Dulko goes ok on clay and although she has a 40/23 career record her best results have come on hard. This match should be another close encounter - Martinez definitely has the game to win but there is a small question mark over her form.

Martinez $2.30 @ Will Hills HALF UNIT