Favourites Dry results for July at NSW/Sp div - Bets 36 wins 13 SR 44.4% POT 0.42%

On the face of it it might look like the Dry Favourite system is not working, however we should remember that this month has seen many meetings postponed and run on water affected tracks. Also there has been a large number of trials canceled. All of these factors play havoc with horses preparation. Which may explain the result. Note also that there are about half the number of selections that we expected and as such the result may be just experiencing variance. If you recall we also lost a few good winners including a $5.5 win to equal favouritism and changes to track conditions. Even just today, my farewell 3 from 3 result has been reduced to 2 from 2 because of track changes

We introduced the Wet Favourite System back in June and have been giving the selections out through out this month as well, it's only fair to include them in the result.

Combined Favourite system July results - Bets 50 Wins 25 SR 50% POT 10.4%

Recognising that different conditions need different tools and as such using both systems run together produced better then long-term expected results.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

This post will summarise the over all result of the whole exercise that we have run here, while in the search of the answer to the question if it is possible to make profits, long term from favourites.

The test was carried out by posting all the selections each morning prior to races with the only remaining filters to obtain the actual qualifiers being that the selection must be favourite and in the case of the 'Dry' system must be run of Good or Dead track. From our research we determined that the expected result would be a winning strike rate of 46.4% and POT of 4.56% based on NSW/SP and about 2 bets per day as pointed out in post 5 of this thread. We opened ourselves to criticism and the forum curse to see if a well constructed system can indeed deliver long-term profits and here are the results:



After 2 months of live testing we delivered and exceed what we promised and gave all those that took our selections a profit from free tips. This system has proven to be safe with the risk to bank at just 10% draw-down. I hope that we have proven that with the right horses that are favourites it is possible to make a profit.

Of course it is not very inspiring to watch a system being tested with $1 level stake bets so lets have a look at some other possible and realistic alternatives. Using a $10,000 bank and better div model it becomes very evident that this is a great start toward profitable punting.

Proportional Staking to take out 4% - 8% POT Profit $2,372 with 17% max bank risk
Level Stake 1% of bank - 10% POT Profit $1,497 with 10% max bank risk

These are very conservative betting models, based on the fact that these are favourites we can safely increase the bets and still be able to get on without effecting the price or experiencing liquidity issues.

This system alone could easily help cover the monthly subscription to our Axis program and allow it's user to generate these selections for themselves together with all the other profitable systems that could be constructed and with all the benefits that Axis has to offer. If you are looking to change or simply improve your punting and are looking for the right tools then evidently Axis is the right tool; our transparent results speak loud and clear and anyone can replicate them!

We want to thank all those that have supported and encouraged us along the way and look forward to the challenges of the next test.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Hi LG,

Thanks for your comment, it means a great deal coming from you. It is the point of difference in this industry that we strive for. Integrity and transparency; we let our successful results do most of the talking and are happy to help others achieve success and share our experience with all.

Michal

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Was long odds on to succeed in my opinion.


Filters within your data base would improve profits,
As would taking better odds available elsewhere.

Can't fault your honesty and integrity.

Good luck with your product in the future.
For what it's worth i would be aboard if i ever started losing.

Praise from me is as scarce as hens teeth, you now have it.

Cheers.
Garyf.

Hi Garyf,

Thank you, you are right, there are many strong pockets of profits withing that system which could be refined. Having smaller systems based on a solid foundation like this system would make it very possible that these would continue even though the number of bets would decline. Our intent is to show large sample system possibilities. I will be able to show a few more pricing options over the next few days as we are about to release something that will allow me to do more with our betting analyser; so it will be interesting to see where and how we can improve.

I hope that that if you ever chose to utilise our services it won't be because you are loosing! I appreciate your kind comments, we post and show and try to educate punters. We realise that we don't know everything and we also know that many that post here are successful within their own right. Our intention is not to 'turn' people from their methods or tools but rather to just show who we are, what we do and what Ratings2win stands for and then let people decide if they can benefit form our products.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Here is the results of our Favourite System over the month of August.

Bets 52
Wins 24

Strike rate 46.2%

POT 6.44%

Another solid month at about the expected figures based on the long-term average. Remember this is a mechanical system created in our R2W Axis program. What is especially good to see, is the performance is maintained long-term over 3+ years and over 3000 bets.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

What is the strike for the Place over this period, may I ask?

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Hi LG

Place strike rate over the 3,000+ bets is 76.2% and over August 2013 68%.

__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

September results

115 selections 50 wins for 0.09% POT; a break even result at our NSW/SP. It seams to be that kind of month, a first in 6 months where we didn't make a profit, but no damage done and we look forward to another profitable month in October.

If you take out the wet tracks, which may be a reasonable thing to do since the 'wet season' is over then the normal 'DRY' system makes just under 1% POT profit.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Hi All,

Not sure what button I pressed, but the results in the previous post are not from the September favourite system. Having just come back from a months leave of doing the files I am a bit rusty

September Favourite System
Selections 59 wins 26, SR 44.1%, POT 1.25%

A little better!

At fixed prices (available at jump) this climbs to 2.98% POT
At best of best (in our pricing categories) this climbs to 5.53% POT

All the best

Michal

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/