You make a good point crash when you say that most "class" horses are identified by the general betting public therefore the dividends can be a bit cramped sometimes.
However, I emphasise that the astute punter, if they do their form study can identify runners in Class1,2,3-6 etc generally at very attractive odds which are overlooked by the "pundits" thereby presenting very attractive betting opportunities for the alert investor.
I must disagree with your assertion that "class" stands out like "a sore thumb" as in my experience most punters at most venues do not appreciate the difference between Cl6 and open company or being beaten 6len in a Cl1 and running 2nd in a class4 race beaten 0.2len.
Good to speak to you.

Cheers.

xanadu,

I don't think there was anything 'astute' about accepting the odds on MA today. Sure she won, but it was a bad value bet considering the competition.

'Any price a winner' is flawed punting I think.

crash, CP:

Aren't we on the same side........ie. hard-nosed punters trying to extract a profit from our punting, which, if you view my other threads today would confirm that I have had a very "interesting" ie. profitable day.
To explain my position....if the astute punter identifies a potential "class" runner currently paying overs does that not fit in with your justified stance that value is the over-riding factor?
Invariably, if the "class" runner is not identified by the general betting public doesn't that provide opportunities for the astute investor to take advantage...just like the ASX, my other pastime.
In my opinion they complement each other but many of the general betting public cannot identify this and therefore we "value" or "percentage" punters find a way to get an edge.
The fact that I am a form student and identified this runner as practically unbeatable(IMO) then how do you know that I did not secure "value" odds with the plethora of betting agencies available-I only quote NSW divs because I reside in this "premier" state(only joking!).

Cheers.

are you telling me that backing an unknown kiwi sprinter is smarter than backing the best sprinter in australia around a corner, crash

by the way i think $5 @ 3.20 (Sportingbet) beats 1x4 @3.60

i think EVEN MORE supposedly 'value' runners get beaten down the track than true 'CLASS' horses get beaten

i think a win is a win is a win, isn't it?

they're all 'value' as long as they get up

Interesting point of view, I have to agree with both views in a way.

The obvious class runners are more often than not poor value.
The apparent "overs" horses are often lacking in performance.

The firmers win and the drifters lose overall in the scheme of things.
The problem being, selecting the value class horses and avoiding horses that are unders.

I recently did an exercise in comparing the drifters and firmers which were favourite at fixed odds.

All horses returned $317.40 out of 322 possible bets.
Drifters returned $139.75 out of 177 possible bets.
Firmers returned $177.65 out of 145 possible bets.

Knowing the movements or anticipating them in advance is quite a difficult task, but overall it can be done to advantage.

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That 'unknown' kiwi sprinter was a 1000m specialist winning in NZ in low 54's [3 times] on NZ tracks with up to 57kg on board, which if anyone with access to a decent form service would have known. The fastest 1000m [until the Lightening] of any of the runners in the race on Sat.

2 weeks ago Ticklish finished very close up to Darci Brahma in the 1200m [not her distance] G1 Telegraph stakes. At 20/1 in a 1000m event her odds were a massive overlay as just look at the class she beat home! Unlucky not to have won the Lightning, but MA produced an incredible 53.9 sec. track record. At 20/1 and the light weight Ticklish was the biggest overlay in the race [because she was 'unknown'] and was a great e/w bet :-)

yeah, but they time them with a stopwatch over there don't they ?

and no, i don't have access to a decent form service (i'm just a humble teacher) but i can read a paper - times don't always translate (on this occasion they happened to)

by the way, Miss Mario clocked 57.22 (they actually time them using reliable equipment over here or the tracks are measured properly anyway) not 54!

Crash, i AM impressed with your outsider (would've put been good 'value' in the summer comp) and would have loved to had him as my third in my tri
Had the first two with VDF
Maybe you could have had the trifecta in my comp

i'll be expecting your tips next week!

[QUOTE=Spartacus]yeah, but they time them with a stopwatch over there don't they ?
QUOTE]

LOL !

don't keep those longshots all to yourself now, crash

i need a good one or two for next week

the kids are taking me to the Orr Stakes
(they're in the clip clop club)

I'll have to share a bit of homework to make sure you collect a few pennies from something then.