You can find me here :-)

http://home.iprimus.com.au/atreus/

Kind regards,

Roger Biggs

Roger,

I don't want to side track this thread. My comment was in regards to evajb001's comments on being due for a few winners strike rate wise.

Ratings are only as good as the person using them and how they apply them to the odds available.

I only rate Saturday metro and yesterday was a great day, 35% top raters winning for a 30% POT at level stakes on all 41 races rated. Best was Classics $9.20 and Dolly Dolly $9.10 (when Marked was late scratching). Some very good 99 point raters as well including Akhedasset $7.10.

Without going into too much detail on the specifics of equations etc, how do you go about doing your ratings mattio? Mine are highly correlated to form, class and fitness which largely takes into account the horses last 3 starts. I'm interested as to how others approach it, I think my biggest drawback is I don't have a database to work from.

Todays Plays:

Hamilton - Race 6

No.
5 Gold Bridian

Scone - Race 5

No.
3 Domuar Miss

Hi evajb001,

I notice today's selections are between BM60-BM68. I think I recall previously you were restricting your bets to BM70+. Was this just for overlays or have you changed your minimum?

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi Schmile,

I've always worked on anything above 62 (not including 62).

Here are today's plays after its been slim pickings the last 2 days:

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 3

No.
2 Clanga's Glory

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 5

No.
4 Aliberani

Sandown-Lakeside - Race 6

No.
1 Khalifa

Newcastle - Race 3

No.
6 Note To Bee

Newcastle - Race 4

No.
2 Boston Tea
Newcastle - Race 5

No.
1 Kukri

Newcastle - Race 7

No.
8 Fireball

Gawler - Race 7

No.
2 Eclair Rally

And Ascot:

Ascot - Race 7

No.
3 Terkel

Ascot - Race 9

No.
7 Not So Sweet

I don't work from a database either, I only have the records of my past ratings which is how I made changes to the formulas over a period of time. Basically I use multiple ratings methods to form an overall rating for each horse, each method is done differently and the final rating is designed to take the best elements from each method.

Track conditions play a part for me too, I lost Akhedasset as a top rater when I changed the track conditions but overall it doesn't matter because a 99 point overlay winner is just as good as a 100 point winner.

Keep at it mate, you are well ahead of the majority.

Thanks for the kind words mattio, i'm currently working pretty hard at trying to get a model together for the NBA to automate some bets on that. I've been succesfully betting it so far this season (Roughly +8 units) but enjoy the challenge of trying to find an edge with numbers and statistics. I'm way way behind the ball game compared to some of the guys on a forum I read though - apparently NBA is one of the hardest sports to build a model for as there is so much interest, any angle you think of to approach has already been done in one way or another. But i figured i'd give it a shot.

Once i either fall over or am successful with that, whatever comes first, I think i'll take another look at my horse ratings method and see where improvements can be made. For now i'm going to ride it out, i'm only betting small money anyway and don't want to give up on it just cos i've hit a rough patch.

Anyhow here are today's bets:

Rockhampton - Race 5

No.
1 Speeding Dragon
Naracoorte - Race 6

No.
1 Hasta La Shamer

Albany - Race 6

No.
1 Nigel's Gold

Albany - Race 7

No.
4 Xaarablaze

Hi Evajb001,

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Have you stopped the overlay approach, or is that another strategy entirely?

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty