I'm not all that convinced that Northerly will race anywhere near his best (if that's possible, he is getting on) in next 2 or 3 starts. Big risk IMO.

i think its great to see Northerly racing..
He's going to be backed by the public even if he rolls out there in a wheelchair so they'll be value in other runners in the race..and if he wins it'll be the first time ever i won't be all that upset about losing my money :smile:
This is Australia's very own Sea Biscuit..pity we dont have a broken down jockey to ride him..Give Bernie the ride ! now that would be a fairytale..

For what it is worth I've rated Northerly's run on Saturday 2.75 lengths below his best ever rating over 1600m in Perth.

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All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-13 13:41 ]

Similar here Sandgroper.

WOW. I'm used to traveling around Europe following my soccer team, but I had know idea people would turn out to see a horse in the way I saw Saturday at Belmont, Their was even "Go Northerly" T-shirts and caps for sell. I must admit I did get caught up in all the cheering on for Northerly, even if I did back Royal minx. I would not have been upset if Northerly had won.

What a great day.

Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing! In an effort to improve my strike rate I’ve just started analysing any ‘good field’ race result where I’ve been way off the mark with my predictions. I am hoping this will broaden my understanding of what to watch out for, when doing pre-race form.

For example, didn’t even look at Violent Wind in the Cup but looking back over the form now, did have a good EW show. In between country stints back in March, had 4 starts at Ascot over middle distance, beaten (in order of starts) 1.25L, HD, 1.75L and 1.25L

Then if you look at last 2 starts prior to the Cup, ran last of 16 (1600m) beaten 5.75L but “raced wide from the 700m” then ran 6th in the Boulder Cup (1760m) beaten 3.5L but again “raced wide from 800m crowded and bumped concluding stages.”


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[ This Message was edited by: Geez on 2004-09-13 22:34 ]

Do similar when a horse performs well above expected rating either winning or finishing close to winner. Keep a bit of a scenario snapshot in case there is some pattern I'm not accounting for. Also observe very closely next couple of starts. Doesn't happen a lot, and where there doesn't appear to be any valid reason for the sharp improvement, around 80% of the candidates never reach that level again, which does make you wonder a bit.


Anyway, Pat Carbery to ride the champ on Sunday, Greg Childs booked for the Cox.

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-09-14 10:16 ]

Would be great to see Pat also get the ride on the champ in Yalumba if he starts in that race.

can't believe they put carvery on. what about a rawiller boy.

if they are going to run northerly in a wheelchair perhaps he would be better placed in the metropolitan.

(just a joke)