Saturday's Result: 4.27 unit loss

Sunday's Result: 3.13 unit loss

May Tally

986 wagers
17.58 units profit (less 5% commission)
1.78% POT

April May Tally

1889 wagers
109.76 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.81% POT

Going to add a slight revision to the rules in June - just a marginal adjustment to the percentages

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

My guess would be lowering the drift % for a back, to say 30.

O.K. Here's the long explanation.....

I had stopped betting yesterday after May's profit evapourated to nil, as I wasn't about to give back any profit from April.

There have been some really strange results for May that defy all previous trends, so we must be flexible and adapt. Rather than backfit or completely change a previously winning formula, I have merely shifted the parameters slightly to smooth out the radical highs and lows to return a more consistent result.
In other words, take a little off the very high profits, to put back into the high losses.

I'm now laying ALL firmers and DRIFTERS under 41%, and backing only DRIFTERS over 40%, so the Drift component remains unchanged.

* I have to reiterate that this has nothing to do with strike rate, it's to do with average dividend, people have been pounding the firmers in May, unlike anything in the last 58,000 races!!!

Here's how it pans out using the original rules:

1930 wagers
85.38 units profit
4.42% POT

The POT here is less than half of the previously published POT, so it tells a very descriptive story.

Here's how it pans out using the revised rules:

1930 wagers
90.17 units profit
4.67% POT

This translates to an April profit of 35.34 units and a May profit of 54.61

So the massive profit in April, won't be seen again unless people abandon plunging onto firmers. I did say that people should be taking the available price or better and not taking less, but it hasn't worked out that way at all - it appears people have been taking a lot less just to get set. It may not be those following this method, it may in fact be others as well - who knows.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

As previously stated, I stopped betting yesterday and resumed today under the new parameters, this resulted in a 12 unit loss today, but half the races were abandoned.

The new approach should translate well to previously ordinary Saturday's as well.

Time will tell.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Chrome

Just so I've got this right, you'll be laying all opening favourites unless they drift by 41% or more.

Did you lay Amberino on Saturday? If so, are you able to have a look at your stats for lays that drift less than 40% and are no longer favs. I think the problem is that some favs drift into the 'too big to lay' region, but you are still laying them. How much have you lost since 'black' Saturday 19/5. Not bragging but I'm ahead 15 units since then, not great but better than losing.

Mark

Yes Mark you've got it right.

Yes, I layed Amberino on Saturday as the drift was only 30%

Since black Saturday I've lost 23.39 units sticking to the rules.
You've done very well being selective, and I suspect you've got some better prices than me.

I've checked the "too big to lay" suggestion, but the overall stats aren't reflecting that, although May certainly is.

Taking all lays greater than $5.00 at the jump, the profit is some 22 units for 78 wagers. Whereas May, it's breakeven.

However, I do think you're onto something.
I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible, but perhaps when the lays get to $5.00 and upwards, the price accepted on Betfair should be within a certain percentage of the final IAS price.

Definitely food for thought, but I've only recorded the Betfair prices on the actual winners.

I don't know how we should tackle this, but probably avoid the lay if you can't get within 20% of the final price????

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Make that 10%

Actually you could make a case for running two strategies under the one banner - the fluctuating parameter and then the price available parameter.

I think your own decision making process may have subconsciously or consciously been doing this anyway, so you are some 35 units better off than me now

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

This is where I admit that although I have been using your idea, and thank you for it, I have still been doing my ratings, and then betting accordingly.

The 'too big' principal is what I thought you meant when you said not to go chasing prices. As the main aim (I believe) is to mostly lay favs that perhaps shouldn't be, then chasing them out for the sake of laying doesn't sit well. I used Amberino as an example because if my memory serves me correctly you would have had to have gone to something like 8.20 to lay it. To me that is madness, as after all, IAS did have it opening fav, and again if I remember correctly if it had drifted one more tick it would been a back. But I don't know that laying every fav unless they drift 41% is the answer. Think back to last Wednesday when Blue Grouse won the last at Ballarat. It opened equal fav and even after firming I was able to get 5.80. Under your revised rule this would become a lay, and a terrible result. I realise this is only one example but I think you can see what I'm getting at.

I don't think that I've been getting better prices than you but I agree I have been very selective. Today I bet in only 6 races for a 1 unit profit, but I think that betting in every race would have yielded a loss of approximately 12 units. (just remembered you've already said this). On Monday I had 11 bets for 1 unit profit, where betting in every race I would have lost roughly 20 units, and probably given it away.

I sort of use the 20% rule but am not rigid about it. If I like a horse and the system says lay, I simply wait for the next race, similarly if the system (original rules) says back and I don't like it I won't bet. This in particular has saved me from backing a lot of shorties that have been beaten.

I've also had some "half bets". The last at Wyong was a good example today. The opening fav was Enz Of Time @ 4, it blew to 8, and I took 12.5 on BF even though I gave it little chance of winning. So I had half my normal unit.

You may not be interested but you've done me a favour with this system so I will hopefully be able to return the favour. If you like I will email you my ratings for tomorrows races and you may want to incorporate them into your betting. In the last 2 days I have had 3 half bets and got it right twice, and I've passed on 24 races and been right 16 times. Fluke that they're both 66% in my favour. You don't have to be right that often when you're staying out of lays that win.

Mark,

Well that answers one of my queries, I couldn't get my head around how you must have been getting such better prices than me, other than you were filtering further from my criteria.

When I mentioned chasing prices, I meant basically take the offered price but if it goes against you too dramatically or you can't get matched, don't comprimise more than a few cents. But yes, it does apply as far as percentages go.

As far as Amberino goes, I got stung for $8.40, the final IAS being $6.50, so in retrospect and considering what we've posted today, it should have been a bet rather than a lay. Take just a few of these each month and it makes a big difference.

As a matter of fact, there have been quite a few of these such cases in May that could have been profited from.

Come In Spanner
Lakeful
Gunna Happen
Danzylum
Banksdale
Char

etc etc just in the last few days.

And of course Ocho Rios today

I'm glad that no matter how you use it, it's been of some benefit

You've already helped me refine some things in return, so thanks to you also!

I have a feeling that the initial theory still stacks up, but is predominantly dependant on the price you get or have to lay at, and depending on what's available, can reverse the strategy purely because of prices and value.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Thanks again Crome as you said I have used your system and have found another one by doing so.
ps. don't lay those 100 raters