Bets 160; Won 105; Lost 55
Units Staked: 150.5 units; Won 17.19 units; ROI 11.4%

An ordinary couple of days going 2-3 and recording a loss.

Petrova v Bovina
Round 4

Bovina did the job for us last night but this will be much harder. Petrova is an experienced clay-courter who's in very good form at the moment. She made the final in Berlin - losing in a hard fought 3-set contest against Hardenne - and dispatched her 3 opponents here at Roland Garros in straight sets. Bovina is a handy enough player but she's less successful against Top 10 players tyhan the likes of Golovin whom she beat yesterday. She also has a tendancy to 'drop off' if she gets to far behind.

Petrova $1.53 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit


Schynder v Peirce
Round 4

This should be a cracker of a game. Both players are in very good form and both are very good on clay though Schnyder has the edge. Patty's had recent wins over Sharapova, Kuznetsova and Clijsters (though Kim retired during a massive Schynder comeback). She's cruised through the early rounds and this will be her first real test. Pierce certainly won't be easy as she's played some good tennis lately but against lesser opponents than those Schnyder has faced. Mary relies on her power game as she's not such a great mover on the dirt but Schydner is a good returner and has a deft touch so should be able to make Pierce run.

Schnyder $1.55 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

Bets 162; Won 106; Lost 56
Units Staked: 152.5 units; Won 16.72 units; ROI 11%


A disappointing evening with Schnyder bowing out though Petrova managed a narrow win.


Schiavone v Ivanovic
Round 4

This delayed match was close to being a bet yesterday, but Schaivone has now drifted overnight to a very good price. Ivanovic was certainly impressive in beating Mauresmo - though Amelie is a notorious choker at Roland Garros. Ivanovic isn't a particularly good mover on the dirt but has a lot of power for a 17-year-old. Her record is also good though nearly all her clay form is in lowly-ranked Challenger tournaments. Schiavone has the game and experience to win today. She's a real grinder who has tons of patience and the ability to return a lot of balls. She's not as flashy as her opponent but she has managed to reach the QF's at Roland Garros before. This will be closer than the prices indicate.

Schiavone $3.26 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT

NOTES: Mary Pierce has a fairly good shot at the finals. The top half of the draw has Davenport, 15-year-old Karatancheva and the ageing all-rounder Likhovtseva. Pierce plays Davenport next and is a real chance of winning if she can repeat her form from the Schnyder match. You can back Pierce around 11/1 and if all goes well, there's the possibility of laying her back in the final if desired.

Your form has been fantastic to date but I really don't see the need to be backing $1.13 favourites. Seven winners out of eight only breaks square taking $1.13. Leave them for the bookies.
You are doing great with your $1.50+ plays.

Bets 163; Won 106; Lost 57
Units Staked: 153 units; Won 16.22 units; ROI 10.7%



Can't take a trick at the moment as Schiavone lost having led 3:1 in the third set before losing 6:3

It's certainly been a poor French Open from my point of view.


Petrova v Ivanovic
QF

I've covered these two in previous write-ups but I still think Ivanovic is over rated on clay despite her performances this week. Petrova's in great from and while this should be close, the Russian has the experience and game to win.

Petrova $1.83 @ Pinnacle 1 UNIT


Henin-Hardenne v Sharapova
QF

A difficult pick risk as Justine is carrying a back niggle and is not at her best. However her champion qualities were on display during her Third Round fightback yesterday and I doubt her ultra-competitive nature will want to lose to 'glamour girl' Sharapova. Henin's done enough this week without been her dominant self while Sharapova has yet to face any stiff opposition. Sharapova
doesn't have a particularly good clay record and has fared poorly against top ranked players.

Henin-Hardenne $1.72 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit.

I'm adding one more bet as the price has moved sufficiently.

There's still more than 5 hours until this game starts.

Pierce v Davenport
QF

Two similar players on clay - lots of power and not much movement. Both have solid records though Davenport tends to avoid red clay with her best wins coming on the faster American green clay (ie Har-Tru). Pierce has had the better form prior to Roland Garros as Davenport avoided all the red clay tournaments post Amelia Island/Charleston. Pierce has also had the better performance in the first four rounds with her win over Schnyder being her stand out match. Davenport had 'lucky' escapes against Peng and Clijsters both of whom she trailed by good margins. This will be a close match but I've been waiting to oppose Davenport and tonight's the night. Davenport's also carrying a slight knee niggle but it didn't seem too problematic over the past few days.

Pierce $2.34 @ Pinnacle HALF UNIT
(prices have been fluctuating all day so Pierce may drift some more).

NOTES: I'm thonk the winner of this match will reach the final so keep an eye on the outights. Pierce is around 11/1 while Davenport is around 7/1. If Hardenne loses tonight, these prices will disappear in a flash.

Fantastic night Marco. Three from three and all good odds. Keep up the great work. Have you ever thought of starting a subscription service privately? Another website charges big dollars for ATP tips and is currently losing about 80 units for 2005.

Marco, Do you think Mary will choke under the pressure if she makes the final?
Home town girl etc. She got really nervous in her previous match when she failed on numerous match points before eventually pulling through.

I'm on Henin at $3.00 and am thinking about laying some back at the Fair now that she is odds on. Schnyder was my best result at $31 but not to be. She blew a wonderful opportunity to make a Grand Slam final with the way the draw opened up in the top half.

Hi Macca - I think you still have value with your Henin selection so I personally wouldn't lay the bet off. She's a red hot chance of winning though Petrova won't be as easy as some people think.

My outright on Pierce had more to do with the draw opening up and the chances of her reaching the final after beating Schnyder. If Pierce makes the final I'll let the bet stand if she faces Petrova but will lay back the stake if she faces Henin.
Should be value either way.

Bets 166; Won 109; Lost 57
Units Staked: 155.5 units; Won 18.44 units; ROI 11.9%

A better evening going 3-0.
All 3 players were also widely available at better prices than those posted (though I'll leave them as they were in the record).

Peirce V Likhovtseva
SF

Likhovtseva is the real surprise package of this tournament. She's basically a 29-year-old journeywoman who has achieved little on the dirt but has beaten Dementieva, Farina Elia, Diaz-Oliva and Fedak thus far in Paris. On these performances she has claims today but will have to be at her very best to win. Thirty-year-old Pierce is on a real roll. Her pre Roland Garros form was strong - despite a couple of minor hiccups - while her form during this tournament has been outstanding. Likhovtseva's problem today is that she doesn't have any real weapons to win - she more or less relies on her opponent making mistakes. However she usually makes quite a few herself as her unforced error count is, more often than not, very high. Pierce may be a tad nervous as she's the last Frenchy in the tournament but she should have enough experience and desire to get home tonight.

Pierce $1.40 @ Pinnacle/5Dimes

Thanks Marco. I am actually more worried about Petrova beating Henin than the other two ladies. Petrova is a solid claycourter but at this stage I will hope Henin gets through and avoiding laying off now.