Remember that you put your tips in early last week and you went from bottom of the ladder to the top!

You come up trumps with much of your reasoning last year Mugsy,but your credibility is certainly on the line here.
Let the Saints go my good man.
They peaked last year!.And still weren't good enough!

Never easy for yours truly

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Ta me go maith

YES i'll post my tips early again .Dont want to ponder this round too much .

round 4

Kangas 25+
Brissy 25+
West C 25+
Geelong 1-24
Port 25+
Sydney 1-24
Freo 1-24
Melb 25+ (26)

Yeah, I thought it would be something like that. Well, I still don't really agree with it.

I think some REALLY huge margins in some games tend to skew the results. For example, Rd 3 was one of the closest rounds you could possibly imagine. 5 games were decided by 8 points or less, yet the overall average margin was 20.3 points. So I can see that in a normal round with not so many close finishes, the average probably would be close to 40.

I still think that a margin of 24 or 30 points offers a better balance between 'under' & 'over'. I know we've only had 24 games this year so not a huge amount to go on, but it's 19-5 in favour of under 39.5 as opposed to over 39.5.

Not a bad idea marko, not pondering too long.

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Ta me go maith

Sheedy says no Hird says yes
Time will tell!

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Ta me go maith

I think they are starting to find a bit of form. If it was just Riewoldt, I would not be that concerned, I believe Kositchtzke could fill the gaps. But he is gone also, and Gehrigs fitness basically puts him at about 70% effectiveness. Leaving a forward line with few targets. Our focal point will be Hamill who would be struggling to be 6 foot ?

However, I think the midfield will now be more likely to fire a few more shots towards goal themselves. They are all capable, and I think the best way to beat Melbourne is to make their midfielders accountable, and put them in a defensive mindset. Also, Moloney out will help.
With that in mind, here are my tips......

Round 4

Kangaroos (1-24)
Brisbane (25+)
West Coast (25+)
Geelong (1-24)
Port Adelaide (25+)
Sydney (1-24)
Richmond (1-24)
St Kilda (1-24) 19

And Moeee, remember, the Saints played that way last year having to rove to the opposition. Now they have a capable ruckman, although he is no Spider Everitt, but capable and quite mobile all the same. Don't write them off just yet.

collingwood 1-24
brisbane 25++++++
west coast 25+
geelong 1-24
pt adelaide 25+
sydney1-24
freo 1-24
melbourne1-24 (24)

KANGAROOS 25+
BRISBANE 25+
W/COAST 25+
PORT ADEL 25+
GEELONG 1-24
SWANS 1-24
FREMANTLE 1-24
MELBOURNE 1-24 [19]