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#1632
28th September 2005, 04:49 PM
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What a crap day
 .. made more with my past the time play bets than i did with me system bets, ...alot of close calls at good odds ...frustrating day.. Seamer has seemed to of lost form..maybe has lost alittle strength because of the break he had..but he doesnt seem to have that urgency or confidence..one of my favourite riders and i'm sure he'll come back.. good to see Palmer with a double ..we'll be seeing alot of the young fellow in town..Triechel who's another coast rider that wont be far behind him... Hope you guys had a win or few ... Good to see Sporty is still as consistent as ever.. Isnt Saturday looking like a huge day...i'll be there in the thick of it in Sydney ..hopefully i wont be so drunk that i'll remember it .... Going to be a huge GF aswell,,, i'll need the week off to get over the hangover and we always end up at some dingy hole (excuse the pun) at the Cross at 3 in the morning ..where they charge $10 for the one beer they have that comes from some ?? actually i dont know where it comes from...tastes like poluted creek water,,, always a great time..  
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#1633
28th September 2005, 04:52 PM
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bad luck stix.
we'll get them back.. cant keep a good man down and all that.. good thing about racing is theres always tomorrow
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#1634
28th September 2005, 04:55 PM
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Quote:
Gday Sportz... Stop the Traffic was miles ahead of the rest of the field on ratings... miles.. so I think $1.9 was about a fair price.. not ridiculous... What do you base that on? (the ridiculous price comment) I have often said on this forum, odds on horses, even those that deserve to be odds on DO get beaten at times.. this was one of those times I agree (sort of) about Fabiarna.. but it would only have been about half a point under a fair price.. Again it was clearly the best rated horse in the field, altho not as clear as STT, and deserved favourtism.... tho $2.4 was a bit short, IMHO a fair price was about $3
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#1635
28th September 2005, 05:46 PM
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XPT,
This is what I was referring to. I'm certain that one of the main reasons behind the short price was that every man and his dog seemed to tip those horses today. Actually, that really should have been a good enough reason to leave them alone, as those over-tipped horses so often lose. That's what I meant by a ridiculous price. I'm certain Stop The Traffic would have been at least $2.50 if it hadn't been so heavily tipped today. And likewise Fabiarna would have been $3.
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#1636
28th September 2005, 05:55 PM
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By the way, all things are relative. I personally thought Graphical would have and should have been around $1.30, so despite being shorter than either of those other two horses I mentioned, I thought it was actually a pretty generous price!
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#1637
28th September 2005, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
Gday Sportz, thats the nature of the para mutuel markets... I am not sure about the tipping being the main cause , but I wont argue that..., I will say however that my priceline was 1.9$ STT... thats why I questioned your reasoning, because u are usually close enough to the mark... the weight of money from punters had STT at tomato sauce odds, and you are right, that is the signal to move on... As you know I dont take odds on.. even if they deserve to be odds on... they don't win often enough long term to make a profit.. I am sure someone wll either shoot that down or suppport it.. The last in mel, Fabiarna was a lil bit short but not by a whole lot, again it was no bet because of the short price I think that these 2 favs going under make the case for setting a floor price for what punters will accept as fair risk... I think a min of $4 is a good starting point maybe even 5 or 6... What do others think? backing those shorties, when they fall over is a short cut to the poorhouse.. and they fall over often enough Just my opinion
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#1638
28th September 2005, 06:11 PM
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Quote:
gday Sportz, you rated Graphical a lot stronger than I did... I still had it on top from Benevole.. but not at 3's on... not with my money Again IMHO that horse was pretty short and didn not deserve to be that short... so I lost on that race... But Hell, thats racing we all have differing views and thats what keeps me interested Race 5 4 86 Graphical 1 69 Benevole 2 69 Middlemarch 8 48 Indicates 6 44 Mandezvous
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#1639
28th September 2005, 11:57 PM
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I agree with alot you've said X .. I'll take a horse at 2.40 but it would need to rate a good deal higher than the next horse in the race..
Scenic Assault and Daka's Gem both Wa horses that usually start at very low odds have been good to me....I trust the shorter priced favourite over there and Sa as the pool of horses are smaller and the form is alittle more true..easy to rate the race aswell.. I think the key word is value....and as Sportz said Graphical at 1.60 was probably just that.. Personally i love the short priced horses running around..it helps with the odds on my selection..i dont have any fears taking on Shorties that i dont think deserve to be... Have a couple running around tomorrow. Gosford *Walarah Boy (good track) Ipswich *Moonbi Nymph, *Aretino NZ *Jezadane Confident about Moonbi ..will be my first full stake selection for a week and a half....should of won last start but got smashed..has been scratched from SC to target this race ...was close up to Natural Blitz in a barrier trial not to long ago..Katsidis knows the track well...others are ordinary.. Good Luck All
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