Bets 167; Won 110; Lost 57
Units Staked: 156.5 units; Won 18.84 units; ROI 12%


A good night with Pierce crushing Likhovtseva. Interestingly, Pierce drifted to $1.46 at the bookies and $1.50 at Betfair (net of commission) though I'll leave the original price in the record.

Final
This should be a cracker of a match but only a brave person would bet against Henin-Hardenne. That said, Pierce is in absolutely sensational form at the moment and is playing some of her best tennis in years. She can definitely win but I don't think she will - Henin-Hardenne is just an extraordinary champion. She says her goal is to finish the clay swing undefeated and not too many players have achieved that feat (or even been in a position to say it). The favourite backers have hammered Henin's price and despite everything I've said, I wouldn't be taking the $1.29-ish on offer. Hopefully some of you will have outright bets still running. Henin was my pre tournament tip and Pierce was my QF tip (see earlier posts).

We're on to grass next week so an interesting challenge changing surfaces.

For a player who a year ago looked finished she has made a remarkable comeback.

Although I think the Denamrk lass will win as I think she is near best in world when fit.

I will have to hope Pierce wins out of loyalty.

ABout 5 or so yrs ago in my first ever tennis mens/womend title doubles, at the French I took $50 worth of Pierce and Gostavo Kirten ( or whatever ) to win @ 175 to 1 10 days before start. --$8750 to $50 with Qld Tab.

Have since tried 16 doubles for 5 collects but never as good price as that french one.

Sitting up at 2 am in morning cheering Pierce and then watching Kirtens nearly throw away 2 set lead against some swede.

Go Mary, Go Mary


Cheers


Jaffa

__________________
I have interests in racing and all sports. Especially interested in Barrier Trials and willing to contact fellow punters in all states to set up australia wide database of all trials

Justine was a clear and obvious selection in this tournament. Amazing that someone could be overwhelming favourite but only 10th seed. As for Pierce, a great effort to come back from where she was a year or two back. I remember seeing her at the Australian Open last year and you would have got pretty big odds on her ever reaching a grand slam final again. She's lost a fair bit of weight since then.

This week sees the start of the short but intense grass season. Form is always tricky at this time of year as many players have limited histories on grass. Moreover, the most recent grass games were played this time last year.

Birmingham is an important event because it's the only grass tournament many women will get to play before Wimbledon (Eastbourne's Tier 2 status limits the field while Hertogenbosch doesn't play qualifiers). Thus the 56-women field is larger than the usual 32 for this type of event.

Sharapova is the No. 1 seed and a successful defence of her title will keep her within striking distance of the No. 1 WTA ranking. There is only one other Top 10 player this week in Alicia Molik, a competent grass-courter who is returning from a 4-week absence with an inner ear infection.

Some of the seeds to watch include last year's finalist Tatiana Golovin and Shinobu Asagoe who enjoys the surface. Lisa Raymond, the 2000 champion, is seeded 14.

A few of the outsiders may also play well. These include Daniilidou who, as always, has had a poor clay swing (she won Hertogenbosch in 2002). However she faces a tough first round match against Cho who reached the semi-finals of last week's grass court Surbiton Challenger.

Tanasugarn is another who hates clay but goes ok on grass as does Kristina Brandi who just won the C25 Surbiton Challenger. Both should improve their results over the next few weeks.

Lets hope the bookies get their lines out early - if they can do it for the French Open , they should be able to offer good service each week.

Birmingham

Bookies very slow to price up so I have to use Centrebet prices. I imagine there'll be better lines later as Centrebet have poor margins.

Half units today as grass form very hard to read first-up.


Kremer v Perebynis
Round 1

Both players have been in poor form during the clay season but this is nothing unusual for Kremer as she prefers faster surfaces. Her 34/20 record on grass is very good and compares favourably to the records of much better players. She tends to do well in Birmingham having reached the QF's in 20002 and 2004. Perebiynis is better suited to clay though she's a respectable 11/7 on grass. The quality of the opponents she has beaten however, does not match those of Kremer.

Kremer $1.87 @ Centrebet HALF UNIT
(will probably be better prices elsewhere within an hour or so)


Panova v Washington
Round 1

Two more players who have been in very ordinary form lately. However Panova has the edge on grass with a superior record and better movement on court. Her 23/17 record includes a few wins over good grass-court players plus she beat Washington 6:3 6:4 at Wimbledon last year. Washington has only played Birmingham once before (2002) when she was knocked out in the first round. Most of her wins on grass have come in Wimbledon qualifiers though she only went on to win one first round match in those tournaments

Panova $1.68 @ Centrebet HALF UNIT
(will probably be better prices elsewhere within an hour or so)


NOTES: I'd avoid the very low prices ($1.20 - $1.30) on players such as Stosur and Morigami. While they are deserved favourites, no one should be that short at this point of the season. Past results show quite a few First Round upsets - though they're not easy to pick. Also players like Mirza and Groenefeld have no WTA records on grass to speak of so their favouritism may be based on their hardcourt results. Too much of a gamble for me.

Bets 169; Won 111; Lost 58
Units Staked: 157.5 units; Won 18.77 units; ROI 11.9%


The results went 1-1 last night with Kremer playing well and Panova playing poorly. Some interesting results and a few upsets so a cautious week ahead. Mostly half units again during early stages.

I'm a bit under the weather today so will keep things brief.


Brandi v Jackson
Round 1

Brandi's just won the grass-court Surbiton Challenger and has an impressive 39/19 record. She's reached QF's of Birmingham twice before and generally plays well at this time of year. Jackson won two qualifiers against reasonable opposition so shouldn't be underestimated. However she has very limited experience on grass.

Brandi $1.44 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Granville v Keothavong
Round 1

Granville was a beaten finalist in last weeks Surbiton Challenger. She beat Keothavong in the Second Round of this tournament 6:1 3:1 ret. Keothavong only made Birmingham as a wildcard (she's ranked 238) and has a negative 12/19 grass record

Granville $1.30 @ 5Dimes (and others) 1 Unit


Fujiwara v Jidkova
Round 1

Fujiwara is a better grass player with more experience on the surface than Jidkova whose record is a poor 6/13. Fujiwara cruised through qualifying in straight sets - albeit against easy opponents - while Jidkova is first up on the surface. The Russian is also coming off an extremely poor 3 months so I'm not sure where she is mentally.

Fujiwara $1.64 @ 5Dimes (and others) HALF UNIT


Obata v Vento-Kabchi
Round 1

Looking for an upset here. Obata's come through qualifiers, Vento-Kabchi's first up. Obata has a 22/18 record, Vento-Kabchi has a 24/19 record though her best performances were more than 4 years ago. A fairly even match-up so i'll look for value on Obata.


Obata $2.30 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
($2.50 available at smaller bookies)


Tu v Weingartner
Round 1

Tu has come though qualifiers against a couple of reasonable opponents. She has moderate 13/14 record but has beaten a couple of good players over the years and likes it fast. Weingartner, who is first-up, has a 10/14 record and has put in a few good games at Wimbledon but she's coming off a run of 5 first round exits dating back to Indian Wells in March. Her last win was in February.

Tu $1.55 @ 5Dimes Half Unit
($1.60 available at smaller bookies)

Bets 174; Won 114; Lost 60
Units Staked: 160.5 units; Won 18.66 units; ROI 11.7%



3-2 last night for 0.11 unit loss.

There's been a lot of price fluctuation in the market which may reflect uncertainty over player form. Most of yesterday's picks could be found at better prices so I assume it will be the same today.

I'm still under the weather so keeping it brief.


Daniilidou v Vaidisova
Round 2

Vaidisova ahs a good junior record on grass but it's 2 years old. She has little experience at WTA level on surface and meets Daniilidou who is 22/10 on grass.

Daniilidou $3.00 Pinnacle Half Unit


Jackson v Kirilenko
Round 2

Kirilenko is another player with good junior form on grass but little experience at WTA level. She's an up-and-comer but Jackson is in good form at the moment. She came through qualies here and made SF of Surbiton last week (including win over strong grass player Tanasugarn).

Jackson $3.12 Pinnacle Half Unit


Dominikovic v Stosur
Round 2

Stosur's the better hardcourt player but far less separates them on grass. Stosur is 8/11 on the surface while Dominikovic, who played ok at Surbiton last week and came through qualies here, has 20/17 record. Their previous encounters, though not on grass, have been close (H2H equals 1-1)

Dominikovic $2.64 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Vento-Kabchi v Fujiwara
Round 2

Vento-Kabchi has a slightly better record and played had the better first round match. Fujiwara struggled with Jidkova who is an inferior player to Vento-Kabchi on grass.

Vento-kabchi $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Tanasugarn v Bartoli
Round 2

Playing doubles together this week but Tanasugarn is the better grass-courter. She has far more experience and better results. Bartoli has been in and out of the game with a series of knee injuries this season and has only played 1 singles game - a loss - in 2 months.

Tanasugarn $1.72 @ Centrebet Half Unit


Granville v Molik
Round 2

Molik's been out of the game for many weeks with an inner ear infection. She's a better grass-courter than Granville but is first-up on grass and first-up since playing Amelia Island in April. Granville made the finals of Surbiton last week and demolished Keothavong - as expected - in the First Round here. A small chance of an upset so taken on price.

Granville $3.54 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

Just noticed I forgot to add the live scoreboard link:

Website: http://birmingham.lta.org.uk/

The livescore scoreboard is well done for such a small tournament. Games start at 8pm AEST.

Bets 180; Won 118; Lost 62
Units Staked: 163.5 units; Won 21.35 units; ROI 13%


A good evening going 4-2 with the 'dogs' returning a very nice profit.

Plenty of upsets yesterday making for a tough round today (half units again).

These are early lines - there's been plenty of fluctuations over the past few days so it's worth keeping an eye on the market.



Jackson v Granville
Round 3

Granville deserves to be favourite but is way too short. These two played each other in the semi-final of Surbiton last week with Granville winning 6:4 7:5 in what was a close match. Granville was then beaten by Kristina Brandi in the Surbiton final - however Jackson beat Brandi in the First Round this week. Sure, Granville beat the highly rated Molik yesterday but Molik said her vision is still blurry from her ear infection and that she was happy just to finish the match. Both Granville and Jackson have similar overall records on grass so I think this will be closer than the prices suggest.

Jackson $2.70 @ Centrebet Half Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Sequerra v Jankovic
Round 3

Jankovic is ranked 20th in the WTA but most of this comes from her hardcourt and clay records. She has only played 9 games on grass at WTA level for a 5/4 record. As we've seen this week hardcourt form doesn't necessarily translate into grass court form, especially this early in the season. Sequerra is no superstar but she's played well over the past week-and-a-half competing in 7 games during this period for a 6/1 record. Her overall record on grass is 17/10. Jankovic is certainly an up-and-comer but so are Vaidisova and Kirilenko both of whom lost yesterday.

Sequerra $3.80 @ Centrebet Half Unit


Asagoe v Chakvetadze
Round 3

Youth versus experience and I'm going with the latter ss Asagoe has an impeccable 37/17 grass record. She wasn't at her best against Tu yesterday as she was first-up on the surface but despite the rustiness, she was never in trouble. Chakvetadze is yet another young player with a lot of potential but like others, she is largely untested on grass. She's played well enough this week but she's only ever played one grass tournament prior to this week (the 2004 Surbiton Challenger where she was beaten in the final). She can win today but it will be her toughest test thus far.

Asagoe $1.72 @ Centrebet Half Unit
(may be better prices later).


Washington v Parra Sontanja
Round 3

Should be a close match and will come down to who serves the best. Washington's been on top of her game this week beating both Panova and Razzano without too many problems. Sontanja got past the highly rated Hantuchova yesterday so she must have a chance today. However I'm of the opinion that the rusty Hantuchova who was first-up did more to beat herself. This should be close but Washington has been more impressive this week.

Washington $1.85 @ Interwetten Half Unit

Bets 184; Won 119; Lost 65
Units Staked: 165.5 units; Won 20.27 units; ROI 12.3%


A poor night going 1-3 and dropping a unit.

Tanasugarn v Granville
QF

Tanasugarn can be a frustrating player to back as she's prone to throwing in a 'shocker' every now and again. However such performances are less likely on grass as it's her favourite surface and scene of her best wins. Her 47/26 record points to her skill and preference for the surface. Granville's being playing well over the last week-and-half with her win over the returning-from-injury Molik being her career-best performance. The rusty Molik apart, she has yet to face someone of Tanasugarn's experience so today's match-up will be much harder. I thought the Thai would be shorter in the market and as my program rates her a 61.5% chance of winning, I'll take the perceived value.

Tanasugarn $1.85 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)