Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #181  
Old 1st January 2013, 03:54 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

Hi, T.O.

Yes, it's not going too bad. Today, there's been one accident so far (Pt Mac 5/8 - Unitab's sole 100 pointer), yet it's about $10 in front at the moment.

Correction - Rosehill 8/14 is not a selection because there's less than 9 runners in the race.

Last edited by michaelg : 1st January 2013 at 03:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #182  
Old 1st January 2013, 07:39 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

A nightmare. From the 46 selections there were 4 accidents for a loss of $70.56.

There have now been 18 accidents from the 888 selections for a profit of $108.08. There's a lot of rebuilding to do, hopefully it's not the beginning of the end.
Reply With Quote
  #183  
Old 1st January 2013, 07:56 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,534
Default

michaelg,

bad runs happen. Just don't stop following this now because of it. Stopping now is what 99% of other punters would do.
Reply With Quote
  #184  
Old 1st January 2013, 09:58 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 464
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Micheal,

How about 1 more filter. Only lay those that have a bookies odds of $20 or higher.

Although this means you will will get less as the betfair odds will be longer it will also drop out those selections which won at less then $20. Its also a good complimentary filter to use as confirmation that the don scott markets are not out of whack with reality.

The problem with this filter is you need to do it at race time which does limit the system.
I think that this is excellent advice for any longshot laying method, UB. I have previously posted in this thread that where ratings and the market are way out of whack the market will prove more accurate more often. A bot would be needed and I see that TheBetEngine is still available for $16 per month.
Reply With Quote
  #185  
Old 1st January 2013, 11:13 PM
Mark Mark is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,410
Default

As ever, no offence intended in any way to any poster on here, but laying outsiders 1 out is doomed to failure, as I pointed out at the start.
This particular method has a fantastic strike rate of 98% and is officially in trouble. The risk so far (@ $30 per lay) has been $26640 & the profit is just over $100, the risk/reward ratio is way out.

Good luck if you stick with it.
Reply With Quote
  #186  
Old 2nd January 2013, 06:56 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

After yesterday's disaster I'm considering applying a price-limit for the selections, say of $50 or whatever. However I expect to continue as is, but limiting the price is just an option.

Yesterday's four accidents paid for the Win:

Morphetville 8/14 - $50
Pt Mac 5/8 - $9
Pt Mac 6/8 $13
Ascot 9/1 - $27

Mark, yes, laying outsiders is fraught with danger, however most of the method's accidents haven't been outsiders but been fancied in the real market, but unfortunately not Don Scott's.

I'll continue as is because it might just be a weak phase the method's currently going through, but as mentioned above limiting the prices is an option to consider.

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.

Last edited by michaelg : 2nd January 2013 at 06:59 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #187  
Old 2nd January 2013, 10:53 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

Today's selections:

Newcastle
4/1, 7

Sale
3/3

Dombeen
4/10

Narrogin
1/4
2/4
4/9, 10
6/9, 10
7/9, 10

Murray Bridge
5/5, 6, 10
6/1
8/7, 8, 9

Sapphire Coast
4/12
7/11
Reply With Quote
  #188  
Old 2nd January 2013, 01:05 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 464
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

Speedy Ben, fortunately this restriction can be applied to S.P., even early in the day.
Michael
I see where you can limit your max odds but I can't see where you can limit your min odds at SP. Am I missing it?
My comment was in relation to the suggestion that you only lay over 20.0.
Reply With Quote
  #189  
Old 2nd January 2013, 01:50 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

Sorry, Speedy Ben. You're right, I've never limited the odds on laying and when I saw the facility I assumed incorrectly.

That is now out of the question - pity.
Reply With Quote
  #190  
Old 2nd January 2013, 07:09 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

There were 20 selections today for 20 smiles for a profit of $14.23.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 04:31 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655