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#11
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i have read recently that the corporates have been blowing up about the number of favourites that won during spring having cost them profits - maybe these figures reflect that in a way. |
#12
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Initially it was alarming. Effectively <$30 is the first 6 favs. >$30 is the rest. Thus 2.9% winners above 6th rank in underperforming. Showing that the ratings are getting better |
#13
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#14
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Looking at our data (the whole lot) from 5/3/2010 the picture that emerges supports something I have been saying all along. The market is getting smarter all the time. This is the analysis of NSW TOTE average prices of all horses by Year and Quarters. Gone down from $8.30 to $7.70 over 4 years Code:
As a side note I have never analysed 603,000 + horses. It was both great to see that Axis can do it without bogging down (took 9 min) and note that no one ever would have systems that would total even a quarter of those selections so I am happy to reaffirm that Axis is system testing 'capacity safe' for the next 100 years or more.
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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings. http://www.ratings2win.com.au/ |
#15
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Good stuff Michal, very interesting, wonder if it is just part of a longer cycle or as has been suggested, the market is getting smarter.
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#16
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It is more efficiency. Probably due to computer use. The handicapper is getting better. I read somewhere that the average margin is down to 1.3 lengths from 1.7. This was put down to better resources for the handicapper. There may be some coming back from the EF, and or maturing of the official ratings
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#17
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this reduction in the dividends I think it could also be caused by "weight carried" compression.
Under that scenario the average horse more likely to be weighted out of the contest in favour of the more favoured, better bred and higher quality animal.. This is caused on the one hand major owners and trainers squawking when their horse has to carry 60kgs or more and at the other end jockeys blowing up when they have to get down to 54kg or less. Or it could just be rolling statistics and move out just as easily. Time will tell. |
#18
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Could it be the TAB's taking out a higher percentage from the pool thereby lowering the odds?
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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” ― Earl Nightingale |
#19
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I'll give you one reason, when the TAB dividend looks to be the same or larger than the betfair odds, I know of a number of punters who pound those odds.
Also with the best tote product, by it's very nature, it trims the excess prices when the bookies lay off.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 407,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#20
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i don't think that has increased in the last couple of years. it may have - i am not sure. if it has - well - yes it could explain it. |
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