I agree Goldmember, value is paramount be the track conditions wet or dry.

I bet in three races only yesterday, all at MONEY Valley. for two collects.

In the Steeple race 3, I had the winner Corrupted 2nd rated @ $5, taking $5 @ best fluctuation. In race 4, I gave the winner Leroy The Boy some chance but was looking for a shade better odds, backing the favourite Aquiline, who while racing well, it finding it hard to win, while in race 6, I had my best collect with Korcula, who I rated on top as a 11/4 chance, taking $7.50 odds at better than best flucuation.

Think that some punters have a mindset against wet tracks, finding it hard to win which in many cases is a self fulfilling prophecy, therefore IMHO they've lost well before they even commence the battle.

Fair enough. I'm not asking you guys to agree with me I was simply offering my professional opinion based on extensive statistical analysis of race results.

Still, if you're a $10 e/w bettor, go for it and have some fun.

Glad you backed a steeple winner La Mer. You know my views on rain affected tracks. You'd black out if you knew my thoughts on betting on jumpers.

iamcool - your choice mate.

Rest assured that I'm more than just a $10 e/w bettor.

As you stated, "your choice mate" - one person's poison it another's tonic.

It's interesting that you indicate that you do not think too much of betting on jumpers. Interesting because I have a mate who has similar thoughts to yourself and his perception is that you can't win backing jumpers. But when I pointed out to him, providing the necessary evidence, that favourites in jumping races have a far better record of success than any other race type/class, he still couldn't be convinced. Fine by me, it's his choice.

There is another thing we differ on. favourites. The quickest way to lose money is by backing favourites. I'd never support anything under $4 in any case.

Still, I've been making a successful living from punting using my own statistical based method for 3 years now so I must be doing something right.

I think it is hard enough to find a winner in flat events let alone finding a winner that has to negotiate 20 fences. Do you know the differences in probability between a racehorse falling in a flat race in comparison to a jumps race? I do.

I like watching jumps races, in fact earlier this year I attended an all jumps meeting at Fontwell Park in the UK and yes, bet on all the races! I had a great day out but draw the line on jumpers when it comes to serious betting.

Good luck.

Sorry...the comment "your choice mate" is for the originator of this thread "iamcool" I meant that it is now his decision to whether or not to take on board any comment I have made.

That's me - It's my choice

Thanks Privateer and Le Mer for your differing viewpoints, both appeal to me.
The reason i was asking for contributions was to try and find a way to bet on heavy/rain affected tracks given that wet track racing is prevalent at the moment. As Le Mer suggests the fact that wet tracks eliminate many pretenders is an interesting point and one that i will follow at a distance to see if it works for me. If not, i will heed your advice Privateer.

It just seems that something has to win so how would you go about assessing the race given the conditions etc..

I will take your advice on board with gratitude.