That was not pretty.

Result 6 runners were available @ the right? price.

Outlay 45
Return 0

Just one of those days.

Erik Hoffer must be to blame.

There are two things to consider with any selection method...

(1) The best horse in the field does not necessarily always win the race, in fact I would suggest that the ratio is a lot lower than what one would think. So if your selection method picks the best horse on class, form, strike rates, barrier position etc ; you may not necessarily get the winner even though your research says that it is.

The varying reasons for this are luck in running, suitable pace, barrier draw, the jockey riding the horse exactly to the very best to suit the horses method of running and being able to give it the run of the race.
The list goes on.

(2)No rule should be set in concrete.
For example you may include any horse which has a 50% place strike rate and discard any below this. However, there may be another horse in the field which has been running below it's best because of bad luck, bad barrier positions etc and comes out and wins a metro race by 5 lengths. Now that horse may only have a 20% place strike rate and so it doesn't qualify - and yet it should well be included.

So my summary is this...

You must have rules, and guidelines. But each race is different, and each horse is different, therefore you must be objective and bear in mind your rules, but look at what in the field may be an exception to this rule.

Just my thoughts.

A lot of those horses weren't the best in the race. I think that's where the problem started. Bad luck is not to blame so either blame Erik or yourself.

[ This Message was edited by: freddy on 2002-06-30 10:51 ]

A few observations on these horses:


Ipswich
1/2 Gullcatcher - racing against rubbish so oods weren't good.
2/6 Nova 3.20 - 7yo country horse?
5/3 West Ward - hasn't been finishing his races off.
6/3 King Lotto - Doesn't win often against quality opposition
7/8 Flying Sparks - ran a shocker LS.
8/1 Darcy D'or - rose 5.5kgs in weight

Rosehill
3/1 Timidity - Honey Ryder was down in class big time.
4/6 Charmeuse - Up in class, down 400m in distance.
6/11 Zabarra - won like a good thing
7/3 Magic Feather - 2nd up risk after 14 days, poor dividend. Has won 2nd up before but beat nothing
8/4 Oakfield Duke - due for a defeat, poor odds, wide barrier

8/10 had several things against them.

I didn't get to post my selections this Saturday but I did poorly like thekey and also testarossa, placegetters and others. My "sure things" were:

Rosehill

Race 3 #1 Timidity
Race 4 #4 Mr Attorney
#7 Kerouac
Race 6 #Etoile Bleue
Race 8 #Oakfield Duke

Vic Park

Race 4 #1 Zedimbi
Race 6 #1 Ex-Files

I ruined Mr Attorney - otherwise a good win - by backing Kerouac in the same race - couldn't separate 'em on my selection method.

Crash! A bad day. I'm prepared to put it down to a batch of bad selections rather than just bad luck and then try to learn from it. In hindsight now I can see the shortcomings of each of them. Glib selections, I think. Or lazy selections, I tell myself. Oakfield Duke, for instance, due for a loss, poor barrier, etc. Should have looked a lot closer.

Timidity was the first horse in recorded history to meet ALL my selection parameters - miserable.

I really thought I'd picked the best of the best horses this Saturday. Most of 'em lost. Most of 'em unplaced! In most cases it was because they were not, in fact, the best horses. I was wrong. So
a bad Saturday all round, but there were good lessons to be learnt. The best horse doesn't always win the race but if I lose it is still much more likely that the best horse did win but I didn't pick the best horse.

Conclusion: Plenty of room for improvement in my selection system!

Advice gratefully received!

Hermes

Don't we all have 20/20 in hindsight?

Gullcatcher: didn't even think about at the odds

Nova : carried 10kgs less than last start and had no luck in the straight I thought it was a good bet @ 13/2. My main concern was with the distance. It has won up to 1800 but that was a while ago.

West Ward: SHE was never considered at the price

King Lotto: The price thing again

Flying Sparks: chose to ignore last start for the base rating because he drew a nightmare barrier and was snagged straight back to last. (note Awesome Weather was rated 0.5kgs below and was good value, but not included because I said I would only post top rated)

Darcy D'or: yes up in weight 5.5kg but down in class about the same (OHP Rand to SCON Ipswich) has carried big weights well before, probably didn't quite get this distance with this weight. I would say the 2.00 I quoted was too short perhaps 3.00 which would have meant a NO BET.

Timidity: think you'll find it was down in class just as much as Honey Ryder and was fit and in form compared to other horses with a query on their fitness. Although the winner did have a couple of barrier trials.

Charmeuse: too short

Zabarra : very frustrating when the best price is half a point below what you want but you have to draw a line somewhere.

Magic Feather : too short thankfully as it bled and is now banned

Oakfield Duke: due for a loss ???? perhaps didn't penalise heavily enough for combo of weight rise and bad barrier. Perhaps the barrier beat him though as he crossed them pretty comfortably but maybe used to much petrol.

Freddy, let me know when there is a horse with no negatives running so I can get on at 1/2.

Honey Ryder - dropped from a Listed Race to a restricted race for F&M with 2 metro wins
Big drop.

Timidity - Racing in similar company.

With good horses like Zabarra $4 is fine. Don't know why you wouldn't take that.
May have been racing against older horses but most of them aren't world beaters. Also Zabarra had the highest $$$ per race, dropping 3.5kgs and ran good time last start.

I suppose you would've knocked back the $2.80 about Boreale - Nothing wrong with $2.80 if the horse is good and the opposition is ordinary.

Freddy

How about we see some rated prices from you!

Just for interests sake my ratings had 7 winners from 11 races in the top 3 so I can't be too far off the mark. 2 of the others were 4th and 5th respectively, one paid more than $21 (rated $25) and the other returned to its best after being out of the winners circle for 11 months. Two winners, rated 2nd were available at what I would consider good value and would have been enough to show a profit if backed.

I constantly review my selection and pricing technique and where I apply bonuses/penalties (note horses are considered as individuals when doing this), this is the only way to learn.

Last Saturday it was 11/14 winners in top 3 with value winners (top rated only) Heptonstall, Badgers Wood, Satashi and A Deena.

Using the same staking method the outlay was 59 units for 225 return. Profit 166 units. Puts the 45 lost yesterday into proportion?

15/6/02
5/8 in top 3
only 2 top rated available @ price
20 out 61 in Profit 41

I don't really care whether you believe this or not, but perhaps you could check some old posts of mine where I provide complete ratings for the Toowoomba Cup and Weetwood. Neither winner was top-rated but both were over the odds.

I believe yesterday was just a bad day, besides it was ONLY 6 selections.

I shall finish my contribution to this discussion with another quote, not sure who to attribute this too.

"If people learn from their mistakes, does this mean that people who have never made a mistake, don't know anything?"

Its easy picking winners if you have 3 selections per race.