Hi 2 bets,

The quote you should have been concentrating on was this one....
Crash wrote:
"The punter who can consistently recognize a false favorite and take the overs on offer in those races will though". [make money].

I had one system that showed an amazing 42% POT over 2 1/2 yrs. and I thought I had finally hit the jackpot. It was logical, had the right filters and no-one else had ever thought of it and I never told a soul. My bets per selection started at $10 and where up to $300 and I was still winning [I was rolling in it]. Then it went belly up after a sustained run of outs that had me gob-smacked. I still watch it but it has never recovered. It was all shear ************ chance. Tilt.

Yes, I know a few punters who play the small percentages with large sums of capital behind them with what possibly could be described as a mechanical system, but a lot of bets are involved and they have mathematical brains way beyond the average ability and a very in-depth knowledge of racing, percentages [odds] and the laws of probability. That isn't us though :-)

I'm not anti-system [I have a couple of hundred I've tried, many my own] and I'm following a couple now with small change [you never know], but my real money follows reason nowadays. It just makes me a bit sad to see so many hopefuls looking for golden gooses and wasting years ignoring where the winning money really is: VALUE and spending their time doing everything but leaning how to truly spot it and never betting on anything else. Consistent edge is everything and the only way to win at this caper. It's simple maths, you must have better odds than the house or the house wins in the long run. That's not 'cold water', it's an opportunity.

If you want to know how to spot false favorites, he's a hint: Have look at some of the winners at Sydney last Saturday and note them down to see if they run favorite next start. Melb. too. Money for nothing.

Crash: Seems to me you are knocking everything mechanical saying that you cannot beat the house. Yet in the same paragraph you say if you find overs that you can...

My question to you is what method do you use to find these overs? Do you look for the same things, or do you just randomly point to a horse and say that it is overs?

My guess is that you have a way that you are comfortable with and use the same method to find every over that you punt on.

Don't knock the mechanical system if you are doing it yourself.

Hi Crash,
You speak with the authority of a man who is successful in what he does. I have no doubt your method works. Unfortunately you've developed a blinkered view of the subject and now seem unable to understand that anyone elses approach can work too. You seem to think that anyone who doesn't use the false favorites approach is a fool and Punter57 thinks the only way to go is backing the long shots which are overs. I'm sure you both do well with your own method but telling others they can't win because you don't or can't understand their methodology makes you a fool yourself.
Now I know sweet FA about racing but I'm a good programmer, love mathmatical puzzles and have a lot of time on my hands. Racing is custom built for me, hobbywise. I started programming racing stuff about 18 months ago and I'm quite comfortable with the consistent profit margin I'm enjoying thank you, from essentially mechanical systems. But I'll tell you what, I'm quite happy to look at the false favorites method too. In fact I'll be thinking about that when I go out to mow the grass in a minute, wondering how I can use it to enhance my computerised system. My mind is open.

Looking back over your quote above, yes, there is a computer based method of winning money from lotto. Unfortunately I haven't been game to use it as it attracts a long gaol term if you're caught. :-)

An finally, please don't put s..t on punters even if you're (mistakenly or not) sure their method can't work. It doesn't worry me because I know mine does but you might scare them off the game forever. You should encourage them, someone's got to put money into the pool for the rest of us to win. :-)

KV

You obviously didn't read all of my thread BJ : "I'm not anti-system [I have a couple of hundred I've tried, many my own] and I'm following a couple now with small change [you never know]," I'll stick to that thank you and my other point that the 'real' [long term] profit in racing lies in spotting overs.

Apart from that, my opinion is my own and not yours to dictate as to how to express my opinions on racing. Try playing the ball and not the man maybe and I might have answered your question. You added nothing to the discussion at all except a little bitch session and that's all a bit sad.

Kenny,
For someone who states :Now I know sweet FA about racing' [your words not mine], you seem dead certain I'm wrong and like to play the man too and not the ball. My opinion for what I think works and what doesn't is just that, my opinion. Do you need me to say that every time I express my opinion ?

Whatever.

Appears that I am not the only one that disagrees with the way you have gone about your posting...

Yes I did read your whole post. Problem though is that you contradicted yourself.

All you have provided to this dicscussion is that your method is the only one. You can only win by betting overs on the "false favourite".
Overs are overs, whether the horse is favourite or not.

Yes you are entitled to your opinion. But so is everybody else. Get over yourself.

'Appears that I am not the only one that disagrees with the way you have gone about your posting'

Safety in numbers BJ? [more like mob mentality....and intelligence].

Ouch!!! Went in over the ball and took the player there. :-)

Now we can all be friend again :-)

I've got to work on my delivery [of my opinion], it sucks. I just re-read some of my posts again and even I felt rubbed-up the wrong way just reading the stuff !!!