Hi Jim,

Haven't you noticed everyone here is a 'winner'? Ever read a post here saying "I'm a looser"? Course you haven't.
I've punted on and off for 35yrs. and no punter say's it [I'm a mug-punter idiot].Banging their head away on the wall saying"this doesn't hurt and I keep doing it because there is hope I won't get a headache".
Yeah, there is a bit of that going on here, but many punters, like with their drinking, have punting well under control
and enjoy what they are doing. It's budgeted into our lifestyle along with everything else. And yes, winning is possible but not all the time and probably never long term for most of us anyway.

You didn't say it is impossible to win, just impossible to win on a permanent basis by using mechanical systems and related methods. Well how are these "professional .01%" winning on the punt then?
I call that a contradiction.

"Can even one person out there tell me why someone who knows of a "genuine, permanent" profit making method of punting would tell ANYONE about it? And then proceed to ask money for it?"

Here you are suggesting that these systems exist, but the ones getting sold are clearly **********. Yet another contradiction.

Please do not categorise everybody that has a punt on the horses as desperadoes. I personally take offense to it. Yes there are people that are desperate to find the holy grail and they probably never will. At the same time though, there are people who enjoy having a bet. They have fun it is within their budget, and nobody gets hurt. Then there are people that treat it like a business.

Let me tell you this Guitar Jim. It is possible to win long term on the punt. Just because you don't know how to, doesn't mean it can't be done.
Right now the opportunities are there to do this. It may not last forever, but no money will be lost on it when the opportunities dry up. It cannot lose.
I do not need to go into any detail, I am in it for myself. I could care less what you believe because I believe something different. You haven't provided any proof of anything, just your opinion, which you are welcome to.
I know I haven't provided any proof either. But, the difference is you are trying to change my views, not the other way around.

Now go and preach somewhere else.

Hi Jim,

well you have certainly stirred the pot with that post

"ALL seemingly profitable systems eventually collapse into loss."

What is the longest period, that you know of, that a systematic approach has been profitable? I'd be interested to learn...

Without a systematical approach to finding selections, and backing them, I dont see how anyone can possibly produce long term profits. This applies equally to using ratings...and applying a systematic approach to best using them..

maybe i'm misinterpreting what you are writing..becasue unless I am, you are saying that no one can make money in the long term...bookies included..dont forget bookies are betting on horses too....

" Can even one person out there tell me why someone who knows of a "genuine, permanent" profit making method of punting would tell ANYONE about it? And then proceed to ask money for it?"


Jim, I just dont buy that.."why would someone sell a winning method?" line. If that was the case Don Scott would never have written his book... and I have given one example where a selection method was given away freely. Not everyone in this world is driven by personal selfish needs...trust me...For some it is ego..for others it's an inability to keep a secret for a long time, and for others it is purely just to help out fellow humans..

I am the first to agree that there are people out there who develop systems for the sole reason of making money by selling those methods...but that is a totally different story in my book. I admit that it certainly gives methodical approaches a bad name.

All the best Jim
Cheers

I think what Jim is saying is that most punters will finish behind in the long run. Betting mathematics would suggest this is true. If we look at betting on the tote...win betting returns 86% of the pool back to the punter..therefore most punters by definition must lose. The bookies operate at over 100% most of the time therefore they have the odds in their favour and this is one of the main reasons they finish in front.

Some punters do win..they are usually the ones that have a unique logical approach that is not in the mainstream. Don Scott published his methods after they became well known to others as he stated. If you purely followed Don Scotts methods today you would end up losing. When Don Scott was using his approach in the 70's and early 80's they were unique and he was getting great overlays. Today most of the ratings based on DS are favourites and not overlays but underlays. You need to take them to a higher level.

And i am sure some punters have either taken them to a higher level or established better techniques to rating horses. Of course we wont know about these people because they are unlikely to publish their methods.

well said joelance. in recent years the wider racing and betting community has taken on the fast food rush-rush mentality of society in general . having been punting for over 30 years i have seen this lead to a sharp growth in an almost keno mentality in the way racing is promoted and hence also a rise in 'get rich sytems' .

It think the point to be made is that a system is just that - systematic . it is rigid and allows for limited flexibility . just the very words " guaranteed' , 'sure thing' , 'instant wealth' should send a shiver up most peoples spines.

from where i sit what lacks most in recent years is a 'get back to basics' approach . this has been lost in the 1 race every 3 and 4 minutes 7 days a week beamed into our tabs and pubs and homes. for this reason , i for one have found it heartening that some of the newer sites like **************************.com are actually seen to be trying to promote re-education by challenging the punter to think for themselves and not listen to the guy on the radio with the 'late mail' heard over last night steak and chips.


John

"well said joelance. in recent years the wider racing and betting community has taken on the fast food rush-rush mentality of society in general . having been punting for over 30 years i have seen this lead to a sharp growth in an almost keno mentality in the way racing is promoted and hence also a rise in 'get rich sytems' ."


Surely, this is getting back to what punting was all about pre Don Scott?

In the Depression years, when racecourse attendances were at an all time high, few punters were using any methodical approach to their selection and betting methods. That is precisely what racing was all about to most of the public..an enjoyable form of gambling. What the current promotions do is focus on that "luck" factor..and the enjoyment of gambling...

I think this is a good thing, not a bad thing. It helps to spread the money over more runners in a race. Bookies have been long complaining that they often struggle to lay more than a few runners in a race...melb Cup day is about the closest they ever get to what it was like in the "good old days"......with lots of mug money going on all the runners...

No matter how many times I am told that its impossible to win long term because of the Tab and bookie percentages, I just dont buy it. Im not backing all the horses in the race..Im only interested in one runner..and if i think I am getting value I take it. Surely the percentages cannot be working against me in such a scenario..they have to be working for me. Why is it that we tend to begrudge the takeouts so much when every other enterprise has these takeouts going on? The sharemarket is one example...

There is another common myth out there..that all bookies make money over the long term...yes, it was a klicence to print money in days of old, but the reality today is that many lose..its not easy for them either.. They are often just punting on the other side of the fence...I say "Punting" because as I said earlier..they can no longer set a book and expect to lay most of the field....they can usually only work with a few runners...except melb Cup day etc.

One thing I am sure of..with punting..as in many other endeavours, the real way to make money is to not do what most others are doing.....you have to think a little differently ....

I love it that there are programmes out there to crunch TABS with dutch betting methods etc..it has to be good for everyone. I love it that there are now more win pools that I can swim in...and "best fluctuations" etc on offer..

I love it that the TAbs are doing their best to bring back the gambling on to the track....The pleasure punters are a key to profitablility. .

Just my thoughts...enjoyable thread..thanks for all inputs

Well said w924. I agree.

Mentioning Don Scott makes me wonder just how good he would have been nowadays with the amount of info. we have a mouse click away ? I'm not sure of the % of race info available now Don Scott had available in his day, but he was probably winning with up to 50% less than we can access.

Maybe we have so much info. available, it's frying our brains ? It's well know psychology that there is an optimum amount of info for any given situation that the brain can process for a "best" decision. Any more info. and the decisions become progressively worse .