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#11
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Well, a lucky exacta or 2 can save your day.
Around 2 weeks ago I had a pretty bad day, only 1 winner from the 7 or 8 races I invested on. But one race was my value target race, as the fave was odds on i think & i thought it was way unders. Getting the quinny in that one race gave me a profit on a day I should have lost by all rights. You could argue I over-invested on that one race I spose, but whatever. It does happen. I'm like luv2bet, I prefer to take people at their word. |
#12
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Tarbs, I have been developing a rating system for my own use and have had the benefit of the wisdom of the forum members in working out possible criteria weightings and actual types of criterion should be included...to be honest my system relies on info from other sites still and is not as comprehensive or technically advance as the members (a template actually)...
My difficulty has been reducing the ratings to a small number of bets and then deciding what and how I use this information to maximise profits...in the end I realised- like others- that betting all around your one selection can be good if it wins but bring you down if it fails...having savers (as again suggested by forum contributors) on other runners (thats why a lot of pundits advise to keep watch on specific runners ...) can take away the pain of losing...but it came down to (for me) how serious I was about the whole idea of punting and making money because one can not be too emotional about it and what I could afford to lose... I have gone from the extremes of covering a lot of races backing one runner to backing 2-3 runners (to win and in exotics) to just the one/two selections for the day in 1/5 ratio (and would only do exotics if I felt that an outsider might come in as placegetters)...takes a lot of discipline but having said that, Im not a big bettor and am not looking to be a full time professional (dont have the balls lol!) Love the contributions of all the members and the sort of learning you can gain from reading their posts...an example being the inclusion of analysing videos (WA- Belmont only) and seeing how that develops... Thanks for your tips and good luck this weekend...will give you my thoughts after viewing vids at Belmont... |
#13
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Hi Tarbs ...i lose and lose alot i always admit it ..0 for 3 yesterday ..
my stake is 500 ...but i also have my Double stake specials.. (Lachlan River and Written By Xaar on Saturday) Blue Patriarch and Quad Queen today... win 400 ew's are 100 win 300 place trifectas 100 1st4 100 treble 100 with my tris my selection with the Field ..full $1 if its a field of 11 or less .. with the change of the 100 i'll back my selection with my 2 or 3 raters next in line ,,eg today Sr 3 ..Number 3 , 900 win ,,trifecta 3/f/f $72 ,, trifecta 3/1,4/1,4 x $14 costs $1000 I'll do the same with Quad Queen in the next at Warrick Farm,, $802 win .. 5/f/f costs $132 ... 5/3,4,2/3,4,2 X $11 costs $66 total $1000 Today Blue Patriarch and Quad Queen are my specials ..but usually its $500 per race,, with my tris if i have a danger ..i'll have a 2/6/6 or something ,,also if i've tipped a longshot i'll couple it at the top with the next in the ratings...but i'll still have it with the field,, Interesting to see how people bet on here,,,i was like you Tarbs ..i've always wondered how people when about actually making coin out of all the tips that go on here.. tipping is easy..its how you bet thats the hard part.. |
#14
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ouch ..can't win them all...
quad Queen running on but no Cigar .. |
#15
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Geez, those numbers are scary!
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#16
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Quote:
used to be scary...but as you know ..i started from humble beginnings.. built a nice bank and have been blessed at Brisbane tracks... Saturdays are alittle scary..especially if i've lost the first few races.. i like days like today when you got the first one over the line..takes the pressure off,,, |
#17
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Quote:
I have a turnover in excess of $1,000,000 per year but those risks scare me too. |
#18
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Just figured out what Tarbs meant by "it's my bucks party.... on sat...". It's like learning a new language on here! LOL Enjoy your "Bachelor" party Tarbs and don't back anything I wouldn't back! or back anybody i wouldn't back......... LOL
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#19
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Congrats as well, Tarbs. My wife told me if I kept betting the ponies she would leave me. I think I'll miss her. LOL
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#20
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Hey Saratoga,
I know that you follow Australian racing and one of the best analytical tools in this game is statistics. For example, favourites here win approximately 30-33% of all races. 90-92% of all races are won by the first six in betting order just prior to jump(or post-time). Earlier this year Australia's biggest punter gave the racing public an insight to his betting activities. This punter would have an annual turnover of approx $100million per annum......yes!......$100Million of our "Pacific Pesos!" He advised that 61% of all races are won by the horse leading at the turn. He also advised that most winners come from the first 6 in running coming to the turn. Obviously, speed maps may be helpful to you here. In your pursuit of knowledge to give you an "edge" in you selection and betting methods, I hope these statistics may have been of some assistance. Cheers. |
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