I remember reading in some book that barriers 1-6 win proportionally more than their fair share of races, eg:

say, B1 represents 7.2% of all runners in races, but wins 7.9% of all races.

From barrier 7 onwards it begins to fall away.

I'll see if i can dig the figures up

That would be great Brave Chief as I am road testing a system with barriers 1-7 too. I know why I chose those barriers but can't explain. It has been proven somewhere so if you can dig them out that'd be really helpful.

For Sydney Metro racing from 1/1/2003

Barrier	Wins	Starts	StrikeRate	ROI
1	283	2615	10.82%	93.92%
2	280	2615	10.71%	65.54%
3	286	2614	10.94%	64.83%
4	283	2614	10.83%	72.97%
5	283	2600	10.88%	78.89%
6	255	2558	9.97%	79.52%
7	235	2443	9.62%	72.54%
8	200	2235	8.95%	75.77%
9	175	1933	9.05%	66.96%
10	125	1528	8.18%	60.42%
11	92	1120	8.21%	74.42%
12	65	755	8.61%	103.39%
13	28	408	6.86%	78.95%
14	13	246	5.28%	56.71%
15	8	79	10.13%	205.38%
16	4	49	8.16%	105.10%
17	1	15	6.67%	73.33%
18	1	11	9.09%	190.91%
19	0	3	0.00%	0.00%
20	0	3	0.00%	0.00%

For Melbourne Metro from 1/1/2003

Barrier	Wins	Starts	StrikeRate	ROI
1	281	2739	10.26%	74.41%
2	277	2739	10.11%	63.18%
3	270	2741	9.85%	65.04%
4	274	2737	10.01%	71.11%
5	269	2726	9.87%	62.55%
6	289	2686	10.76%	72.21%
7	270	2586	10.44%	76.25%
8	213	2408	8.85%	63.79%
9	201	2134	9.42%	75.17%
10	140	1773	7.90%	69.20%
11	108	1388	7.78%	72.80%
12	76	990	7.68%	64.12%
13	41	652	6.29%	67.14%
14	15	430	3.49%	41.22%
15	18	262	6.87%	102.67%
16	1	149	0.67%	3.69%
17	0	8	0.00%	0.00%
18	1	6	16.67%	166.67%
19	0	3	0.00%	0.00%
20	0	3	0.00%	0.00%

Barriers 21+ excluded due to post length..

G'Day Blocka, barrier 9's results very interesting!

We have to be very careful when interpreting those standard barrier figures [and thanks for printing them Blocka].

What looks obvious on the surface isn't exactly so. How many races are there with 16 to 20 runners during a year's racing ? Barriers 1-7 get more use than any other barriers.

The figures I saw were barrier stats for various race sizes. The differences were small but when it comes to say a field with 16 runners [common during spring] the inside 7 get more wins. I remember that much. The outside barrier [jockey can keep out of trouble] like Le Mer suggested, might pay handsomely for itself though. I haven't seen any evidence but I get a feeling he is probably right.

A system with a rule of must be in barrier 1-7 or the outside barrier might have some worth. I like it.

Generally, trainer attitude seem to be that up to barrier 7 are good and outside that are lousy. A horse's individual running style might suit either being inside or out. Different tracks and different distances on them, all would have different alley win stats., but when working out system rules, we are after what's best overall.

Great thread guys.

I sacked barrier draws, as a factor in my methods, a long time ago...A scan look over the tables that Blocka has kindly posted doesn't change my opinion one bit.

Look at the stats for barrier 2 in melb and one can see that its actually slightly worse than barrier 8 for ROI..on these stats in both venues Barrier 2 looks rather ordinary imo.

Obviously, barriers 5 and upwards often become the outside barrier in many fields, Those who follow Dale's "outsider" method posted on this forum are well aware that the outside barriers have their fair share of winners ..often at big odds..and as a punter, winning odds do matter.

It is a given that an outside barrier draw means that horse is going to cover more ground than many of its rivals, and may have to use early speed to get to the fence, or drop back to cross over..yet despite this they still get up,. When beaten into 2nd place, however, it is very easy for us to blame the wide draw for its defeat...correctly or incorrectly.

"A system with a rule of must be in barrier 1-7 or the outside barrier might have some worth. I like it."

Food for thought there Crash..or maybe ..any barrier draw , providing that it is isnt 2

Ive noticed lately that the 2nd barrier draw in from the outside has been going ok lately..there have been a few races where the two outside barrier horses have fought out the finish and grabbed 1st and 2nd...

for your system CRash, your own existing barrier rule seems to work, if your results are anything to go by, so I can imagine your reluctance to tweak it.

Would be awesome to find out if the omission of the barrier draw rule altogether, (or the inclusion of outside barrier rule) would further improve, either your strike rate, or perhaps more importantly, ..p.o.t.

Here is the Sydney metro from 1/1/2003. This time only including horses in the market @ <= $10. To me it shows the change is S/R and ROI is not statiscally significant and why I don't tend to worry too much about barriers in general.

Barrier	Wins	Starts	StrikeRate	ROI
1	230	1262	18.23%	88.75%
2	241	1291	18.67%	80.70%
3	256	1306	19.60%	87.43%
4	241	1301	18.52%	82.98%
5	237	1253	18.91%	85.17%
6	204	1189	17.16%	79.99%
7	194	1125	17.24%	82.14%
8	158	948	16.67%	81.81%
9	143	820	17.44%	89.07%
10	108	567	19.05%	101.99%
11	65	378	17.20%	92.99%
12	46	249	18.47%	110.29%
13	22	111	19.82%	121.74%
14	7	65	10.77%	68.46%
15	4	13	30.77%	209.62%
16	2	12	16.67%	112.50%
17	0	3	0.00%	0.00%
18	0	3	0.00%	0.00%

924:
"Would be awesome to find out if the omission of the barrier draw rule altogether, (or the inclusion of outside barrier rule) would further improve, either your strike rate, or perhaps more importantly, ..p.o.t."

Well I hate to disappoint you 924 but that barrier rule is an addition I made to this system a long time ago. It was an improvement.

We should remember that the barrier figures here are probably from 1 Melb. metro track only [Flemington Blocka?] and not all 4 of them. They certainly don't represent all Metro tracks in all states. Those big Brisbane tracks would show a very different story and try outside barriers at tiny Rosehill track in Syd. !!

I can't confirm the outside barrier plus 1-7 idea, but I'm going to keep an eye on it as I really do like it.

One rule I am thinking of including though [to both my systems] is: 'ignore the race when there is a very strong under $3 PP favorite competing against your selection'. Makes good sense with Syd.R4 Pendragon at $2.40 and R5/1 Mummify at $2. They might get rolled, but in normal punting [doing the form] I always ignore those races.

crash, the barrier data includes all metro tracks for the indicated state.