I reckon Lad of the Manor has to be in with a good chance as he can sit up handy to the pace, does not mind it wet and has won 4 from 4 at the Valley. Also my back pocket is hoping he wins as I backed him each way at $26.00 just before he had his first start back this spring

Bet smart bet wise

After my initial review of runners in this year's Cox Plate I stress to fellow form students that only 6-7 runners even pass the first test of "true class" runners.
Accordingly, I will now involve myself in intense form study, importantly, ignoring all the hype and distractions of assorted media types.
N.B. look for "true class" horse(s).
Cheers.

I have been spruiking Lad of the Manor for along time now for this race basically saying the Makybe Diva will not beat him in another thread well I am not less confident now than I was a few weeks back when I said that. He has a great record at the Valley and a great wet track record no reason to be worried now I don't think.

i backed Hotel Grand in the Spring Champions and so watched him from barrier to box and jock' J Ford gave him the best run you have ever seen,can't see it happening this time.Desert War is up there for me,only worried about the Melb' way of going and WFA scale and maybe the wet.
as for God's Own as a 3yr old,is he as good as previous 3 yr old's to have won.....i don't think so yet.
Super Kid has been outstanding so far but looks a little one paced for mine.
if Lad of the Manor can handle the wet,he looks very good as of course does MD but she will have to make a long sustained run for mine.
maybe the #1 barrier for Desert War amounts to good value and i believe this horse is still on the way up.
same as MD for Xcellent but the best of him is yet to be seen IMO.
can't come at any of the others....Outback Prince has cost me a packet so far so he is sacked.....overated for mine.
anyway,i think the winner will come from the first few horses i mentioned.

I've tried to picture the race, and the only way we are going to

Get the odds and beat the Diva is we need to find a horse who

Will have a handy lead on the turn & hold on.

I can only come up with Lad of the manor. ( nice exacta)

Is there any other horses in this category ???

Maybe a bottom weight ?

GO Confectioner

__________________
? ph34r me ?

This is my picture and fantasy....

Jumped
Outback Prince (OP), Hotel Grand (HG) and Lotteria (LT) will jump fast to cross over the rail with Desert War (DW) hugging the rail for lead follow by Lad Of the manor (LM), Fields on Omagh (FOO), Greys Inn (GI) and Tosen Dandy (TD), Sky Cuddle (SC) in the middle with Super Kid (Kid) and God Own (GO) right behind outside SC and Makybe Diva (MD) hugging the rail at the back with Confectioner (C) outside and Xcellent (X) behind last..

At 1200m
DW, LT and TD have taken 2 len lead with the second bunch lead by OP and HG. LM, Foo GI will follow with no move from the back.

At 800m
As the speed right up in front by DW and LT, SK, LM, HG and FOO will start the move from middle of the field with MD and X also starting to come out from the back follow by C.

At 400m
LT, TD, OP, HG SC will start dropping out from the challenge. GI will move forward to tackle DW together with LM and FOO. GO and Kid will follow together with C, MD and X

You figure out the last 200m…..

For me, LM, DW and FOO will hang on (for 1st, 2nd and 3rd) together with Kid and C with MD 1/2 - 3/4 len behind. GO and X will follow with the rest at the back of the field.

Go punting….

i can tell you this much, at the 400 Xcellent and Makybe Diva along with Confectioner will all be Flat out and no more than 3 lengths off the leader who will be wilting due to all runners being flat out since the 800m mark.