Kennedy,

Just want to say love the software and thanks for your effort.

Just framing up the dog markets for tonights races at Albion Park.

I noticed in race 4 that Number 3 Ellies Diamond was given a chance of 6.38%. I looked at Ellies stats and found it has won 8 from 14 and its time is constantly improving.

I then looked at the fav for the race (based on the spreadsheet) and found it had a chance of 40.87% even though it hasn't raced to its best for quite some time (recent form is 68652). I then checked the racing speeds of both runners and found that Number 4 Zinger raced very well when he was much younger (2 years ago).

So based on the above I assume that the anslysis is done on all the races of a dogs career ? Would it be better to just use the last 10 races, or something similar (allow the user to choose it)? Is there a way you could program in the decrease in speed over the life time and plot it to determine if the dog is improving, steady or decreasing in MPS ?

Again, just making sure you know I am not critising the software as I love it. Saves me a lot of work. Just posting some suggestions for enhancements.

Thanks

Umm the data is from GRV. This means that it might not have data for dogs from other states.

I will look into it though and give you an answer.

Well its nice to see that GRV have opened up their form for all tracks in australia so it can be used for any track i think. As for your query you make a very valid point. Zinger in albion park r4 started its career well and has gradually gone downhill since then. For the time being just use the career mps but i will definitely consider changing it so you can decide how many previous starts you want to go back to.

I should point out how does it go over the monte carlo analysis?
I ask this because statistically speaking it is more accurate than the 1st method

Kennedy,

Thanks for the prompt reply ...

One more little thing which I know you can't fix and it is more of something to watch out for.

Race 6 at Albion Park Goliath is in Box 1. When you press "Get Form" it actually retrieves results for 2 dogs ... Goliath that ran in 1990 and Goliath who ran in 2005.

Obviously the dog has the same name and has not been racing for 16 years.

Any good info you can add here on tips/tricks on how to use your software would be great.

Thanks again.

Unfortunately i cannot fix that, out of my control.

I can say the best tip i can provide is simply to use the monte carlo odds and not the 1st method. I leave the 1st method on the sheet to provide odds based on one time. The monte carlo analysis will give a dog a time determined by normal distribution and a random number so the results can vary.

Just use the monte carlo odds and look for good value on the tote.

Kennedy,

I am giving your program a bit of a work out today but I hope I am providing some insights into what I like/dislike about it ( mostly love it ).

For Albion Park Race 8 Number 3 should be by far the favourite along with Number 5 and Number 7. But it has Number 1 as the fav.

I checked the data again ( cause its fun ) and found the reason number 1 was the fav was because it ran a lot of meetings only 366m rather than the current race which was 520m. This meant that it had a much better MPS as it did not get tired. But over 520 it runs only 16.3-16.6 times as opposed to its 366 which is 17.8-17.9 times.

Somethings to think about in the future are :
- Test only over the specified distance OR
- work out a standard drop in the distance for each increased length.

Thanks again .. still love the software and I am just modifying the data to only use the data I want tested again . For example I am removing the records for the 366 races and recalculating the MC analysis.

Now to see how the results go....

Thank You

Id love a copy, evan_c14 at hotmail.com.

cheers

Kennedy,

I have updated the program slightly. Would you like a copy ? ( you could just as easy make the change yourself it was pretty simple ).

I have changed it to only get the past results for the current distance being run. Primarily I don't want to bet on dogs who haven't run this distance before.

So Far I have run it on a couple of races and it has picked the top dog every time. It also picked the trifecta.

This is a top little simple program you have written.

Thanks