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  #11  
Old 1st November 2005, 05:44 PM
mad mad is offline
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Lay the Diva with confidence - eh?
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Last edited by mad : 1st November 2005 at 05:51 PM.
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  #12  
Old 1st November 2005, 06:00 PM
Marcus Marcus is offline
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Well Empower,
Your market was way out. I can understand if you didn't have the great mare on top, but instead had it second or third. But for it to be worse than 20/1?
You wrote:
"Win Betting - For those interested in win betting there is going to be great value here no matter which way you look at it for the simple fact Makybe Diva is going to start a relatively short priced favorite and she can't win."
SHE CAN'T WIN. Talk about messing it up. From memory you also badly missed Railings in the Caulfield Cup.

Here are your Cup prices. Sorry. Way out without the mare there.


Eye Popper 11/2 = 15.38% of market

Mr Celebrity 13/2 = 13.33% of market

Leica Falcon 15/2 = 11.76% of market

Greys Inn 9/1 = 10.00% of market

Strausbourg 12/1 = 7.69% of market

Distinction 12/1 = 7.69% of market

Kamsky 20/1 = 4.76% of market

Lachlan River 20/1 = 4.76% of market

Represents a total of 75.37% of the market.
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  #13  
Old 1st November 2005, 06:06 PM
mad mad is offline
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Folly of listening to others there Marcus, make your own selections and be happy if you win, learn from your mistakes when you lose and stuff everyone else.
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  #14  
Old 1st November 2005, 06:22 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Quote:
For those interested in win betting there is going to be great value here no matter which way you look at it for the simple fact Makybe Diva is going to start a relatively short priced favorite and she can't win.


This is what I was talking about on another thread. Even if you didn't have her rated on top, there's just simply no way you could say that a horse as good as her "can't win".
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  #15  
Old 1st November 2005, 06:28 PM
La Mer La Mer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
The Diva whole prep. was for the Cox Plate, not the Cup. The horse has pulled up well but that doesn't mean she is going to go out and win the Cup with 58kg. She peaked for the Cox end will be very vulnerable in the Cup.

Eye Popper gets his big chance at his pet distance with Distinction to me, the other big O/S danger.

John Hawkes is burning for a Cup and Railing is cherry ripe for this, but I wouldn't leave Demerger out as a serious contender after a perfect prep. She will be a lot tougher than in her easy Adelaide Cup win last May. Portland Singer has the right weight and the right Jocky.... heck, just take a Boxed field tri. in this race.


I did orginally post something else that probably wouldn't have stood up to management' standards, so perhaps I can ask this question of Empower, which is, how could any reliable ratings service have a horse such as Makybe Diva priced at 20/1 plus? It just doesn't stand up to any logical analysis.

Last edited by La Mer : 1st November 2005 at 06:37 PM.
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  #16  
Old 2nd November 2005, 11:49 AM
Filante Filante is offline
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...another classic example of why some people prefer to sell their information rather than punt it.
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  #17  
Old 2nd November 2005, 11:57 AM
Stix Stix is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Empower ISV
Lay Betting - Plain and simple the value lay here is Makybe Diva, lay her with confidence. You can even lay her in the place market with confidence!!!





Good luck and happy punting on the day!!!!!



WHOA..........
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  #18  
Old 2nd November 2005, 12:02 PM
Mr. Logic Mr. Logic is offline
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I once subscribed to a couple of ratings services. What a blunder. They certainly wouldn't want to be betting using what they sold. They regularly advertised big overlay winners. Here's what they did. In most races they had the favourite way out or not even in their ratings. They even justified this to their members by telling us that as the favourite loses two out of three races, the way to go is bet against the favourite. That huge value can be created by taking a different approach to the majority of punters who lose by backing favourites and instead taking on the favourites. When they were lucky enough to pick the winner in their top five they advertised a big value overlay winner. They forgot to tell you that in most of those races you'd be betting five horses, because they were all "value" once the even money favourite was left out or priced at 15/1. They also forgot to tell you that you'd be wiped out every time the favourite won and every time they missed the winner in their top five. But you saw plenty of ads like "rated 2/1 wins at 5/1."
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  #19  
Old 2nd November 2005, 05:52 PM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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Indeed, sound words, there are plenty like that. Don't sack them all though, there are some reputable ones out there.
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  #20  
Old 3rd November 2005, 12:52 AM
Empower Empower is offline
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Im not going to sit here and defend a bad call as there is no logic to it.

To assess a service on one race is foolish.

Have a look at our Caulfied Cup analysis, rated Eye Popper 2nd best in the race and suggested it as backing it for the place as the best option in the race, duly paid $8.00+

Have a look at the 2 Breeders Cup analysis posted on here. Landed the Sprint winner at 15/1 on top over the boom sprinter Lost In The Fog that was senr around at 1/1.
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