If you guys realy want to back some dog winners, the checkout www.insiderail.com

Its a "Free" Harness, Horse & Dog Racing site.

Good Luck

OK, I'm intrigued by Dapto dogs. [I drove past it once]. Just the name is a blow-out.

The brake and I used to be dog fanatics for about 10yrs. before they closed Olympic Park [Sandown was just too far from us] when we lived in Melb. We get down to Sale now and then [1hrs.drive] but that's about it for us.

Will be folowing the tips AB51 [with win bet $] for somthing to do as the the nags are a bit of a bore this time of year.

Hope we get some winners !!!

This is for Moee, badluck about the formatting, but it's a busy night, the last figure is Average Time behind winner converted to distance per grade, (lower is better) as I posted not too long ago, the other prices are first tier analysis (which means it doesn't have Box/Distance/Age/Spell adjustments), last 2 races compare grade 4 to grade 5 performances

Sandown Park

Race 2 Name LTD In Grade In Grade
1 GLENAVON NICK $6.68 $5.47 9.65
2 SISCO DI $12.10 $19.23 10.84
3 DARK RHYTHM $13.33 $20.83 5.21
4 LINTON'S TITLE $22.73 $15.71 10.00
5 GENTLEMAN CALLER $13.39 $18.75 10.31
6 CALL ME JAK $6.06 $5.33 4.05
7 FEEL THE FURY $3.45 $3.10 4.78
8 MICKY HUNTER $14.35 $21.58 8.75
9 ERA IN JUDGEMENT $29.70 $41.67 8.52
10 TONY'S EYE $63.83 $50.85 11.58


Race 3 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 MARTIN ALLEN $10.00 $10.27 8.56
2 ROCK COOL DADDY $12.50 $10.17 4.95
3 GOLD FEVER $33.71 $38.46 10.55
4 PHRENETIC $15.08 $11.19 5.68
5 TURBO UNO $4.13 $3.92 -0.02
6 MARBO KING $7.69 $16.85 6.23
7 ANOTHER WHISKY $5.23 $4.65 6.72
8 SLEEK PHYSIQUE $12.77 $10.95 5.42
9 BRINDLE TRENT $14.78 $18.63 5.97
10 BOOMA PETE $68.18 $68.18 7.47


Race 4 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 SIMPLY ON FIRE $4.64 $3.95 8.6
2 MAJESTIC FLEX $8.38 $12.88 6.1
3 JACK MITCHELL $9.01 $10.34 5.8
4 GUN STRIKER $16.67 $23.08 6.3
5 SUN ALERT $11.63 $18.63 8.5
6 JIGSAW JULIE $8.55 $5.07 3.7
7 EXTREMO $13.16 $9.40 4.7
8 WONGAWILLISUE $11.76 $6.80 5.6
9 ARVO'S BLITZ $8.11 $68.18 5.9
10 BEILHARZ SUNRISE $142.86 $100.00 7.0


Race 5 LTD In Grade In Grade 4 In Grade 5
1 LYGON STREET $3.84 $4.04 2.6 6.3
2 CODE OF PRACTICE $7.44 $5.43 19.9 5.1
3 TAMMY'S FOOL $8.80 $12.15 5.7 6.5
4 JIZE ALLEN $10.64 $9.93 3.8 7.0
5 VOLANDRI $11.24 $6.98 1.2 5.9
6 FREE LOADER $38.46 $45.45 9.6 6.5
7 DEVIL DEV $6.61 $12.00 5.2 8.2
8 SMURFS CANDIDATE $22.39 $14.29 7.9 9.7
9 BROTHER HARLEY $11.58 $14.93 6.1 4.8


Race 7 LTD In Grade In Grade 4 In Grade 5
1 CHEWY RUM***** $7.03 $8.22 7.6 7.8
2 MR TAB $7.13 $9.09 9.3 3.3
3 CAMZAMAN $8.33 $13.22 9.7 5.7
4 DETERMINATOR $15.87 $28.57 8.6 5.3
5 LEO BURING $25.86 $68.18 7.8 5.5
6 AMOS FLEX $13.51 $11.72 8.2 7.3
7 LEICA $5.91 $7.85 5.5 6.2
8 YOUTH WORKER $6.47 $5.99 6.5 6.9
9 BROTHER HARLEY $10.24 $3.80 6.1 4.8

I'll post the Grade/Class differences for Victorian tracks later tonight

The remaining races on the card,


Race 8 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 SISCO BUZZ $6.52 $11.15 7.3
2 EARTH QUAKE $4.74 $6.22 7.0
3 ALL THE MOVES $6.37 $8.20 5.2
4 DAYELEON PUZZLE $8.36 $4.08 8.0
5 MEPUNGA EAST $14.29 $14.22 4.7
6 SLAMM $26.55 $66.67 9.3
7 JIMELLA LAD $8.47 $11.86 6.6
8 FIRESIDE OSTI $11.11 $10.91 6.3
9 BROTHER HARLEY $23.08 8.26 4.8


Race 9 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 BULLSEYE BANDIT $4.72 $4.35 6.3
2 DYNAMO GYPSY $12.35 $17.70 7.1
3 OIZDON EXPRESS $7.71 $6.45 4.7
4 DYNA COMMANDER $4.05 $2.34 1.8
5 KURRANG KAIN $9.52 $18.69 3.5
6 FLYING VIRUS $17.34 $71.43 7.8
7 TANYA'S STAR $8.72 $43.48 6.7
8 COOPER ALLEN $24.19 $32.26 8.8
9 OUTER REACH $166.67 $111.11 9.7
10 AWESOME MOLLY $166.67 $666.67 7.4


Race10 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 WACOMA $4.39 $5.76 7.5
2 VICTORIAN $10.14 $6.90 4.8
3 TRAMOLINA $5.42 $3.39 5.5
4 LOONEY MISH $15.00 $13.33 6.1
5 SCORCHIN' $14.78 $20.83 11.3
6 NUGGETS BOY $8.17 $30.00 5.8
7 SPECIAL DIVA $11.03 $10.10 5.1
8 KAKADU ALLEN $12.00 $8.40 2.1
9 SAINT AMBER $250.00 $375.00 10.0
10 SUPER UNIT $18.52 $103.45 9.1


Race11 LTD In Grade In Grade
1 SOVEREIGNTY MAN $7.30 $7.44 7.4
2 MUSCAT $4.92 $4.55 5.8
3 DYNA SNOW $9.55 $9.26 8.3
4 JUDGE GALORE $12.24 $17.44 7.5
5 ALLEN KEITH $7.92 $6.05 4.3
6 PROVEN LUCKY $7.26 $8.70 8.5
7 ARVO'S JET $12.20 $10.27 7.7
8 MAMBO CREW $36.14 $37.97 9.0
9 SMOKY'S JUNIOR $20.98 $23.08 9.0
10 VINTAGE MOON $19.23 $30.00 7.8

Only just found your post Woofer.
Thank you for doing it.
I am just going through it but aren't understanding why you have 2 dividends beside each dog.
Could you explain please?

Hi Moe,
The first estimated payoff is based on using each dogs Life To Date raw time data, without any adjustments.
The second estimated payoff is based on using Lenghts beaten In Todays Grade LTD without any adjustments.

The third figure is using Lenghts beaten IN Todays Grade LTD.
The 3rd figure is compiled without using any Class/Grade adjustments from track to track, plus it is Life to date.

The purpose was to show Lenghts beaten In Grade is a very good indicator of Class, with some slight adjustments such as knowing the Class difference from track to track, deducting win margin from Lenghts beaten total, box position adjustments and using only say the last 6 starts (providing there is no breaks of more then 21 an over days between starts)its quite easy to handicap a race with only a formguide and pencil.

I am the first to admit that my posted assessment of the market is the worst that I've ever seen posted.
It should be impossible to lose more than 17%,because that is the take out.
Yet I continue to perform at a ridiculous Loss on turnover.
And the reason this is happening is because the factors I am looking at,are not the reasons why dogs do or do not win.
They should be,but they are not.

And can I say Woofer,without trying to bag your ideas,because they also appear sound,you also are looking in the wrong place.
Although it may very well have been a bad night to release your theory or perhaps there is really a phantom curse about.

I do understand that your market did not allow for the box draw and a number of important factors.
And I did not in fact do the maths of actually working out your returns that would result in backing the overs at your posted prices.
It would be criminal of me to expect a profit on turnover,but I would expect your overlay prices to have returned better than a 17% loss.

And again,I didn't do the maths,but considering that not a single winner started at over your posted prices,I may be over hastily condemning your efforts.

Please appreciate that I do appreciate your effort and am not condemning you or your mode of assessment.
Could you please,if you did in fact have a bet or two on the meeting,notify if you actually had a winning or losing night.

Thanks Woofer.

Can I say that I have been mentally playing around with a Greyhounds win/loss record.
And the win/loss record at the track over the distance.
And not actually applying any particular mathematical formula, I have noticed a substantial decrease in my monetary losses.

Am going to try and put these statistics into some sort of market framing exercise and see how it turns out.

I really do expect to post my markets and still fall flat on my face,AGAIN, but I will endeavour to reach inspirational heights.

moeee,

I have a quick system worth following if you are interested. I don't follow it as I know it loses in the long run but it does work short term. I have given it to a number of people who use it everytime they go for a quick drink and bet at the pub.

It takes a whole 2 secs to work out who to bet on and will win enough of the time to pay for your drinks.

The rules are :
1. Find any dog race.
2. Look at boxes 3,4,5,6
3. Bet on any under $5. (place or win up to you)

Here are some results from today.

Results for tonight at Warragul :
1. Box 5 (2nd)
2. Box 4 and 5 ( NP and 1st $4.70 )
3. No Bet
4. Box 4 (NP)
5. No Bet
6. Box 5 (NP)
7. No Bet
8. Box 4 (1st $3.10)
9. Box 4 and Box 6 ( 1st $4.20 and NP)

8 selections for 3 winners ($12). POT is 50%.

The theory is that the inside boxes (3,4,5,6) ALWAYS have better value then the outside boxes. The price of < $5 shows this dog has a chance. You won't win them all but you will win enough to pay for your drinks ...

If I was at the pub tonight that would have easily covered my drinks ( outlay of $40 for a return of $60 ).
Good Luck.

Can I tell you the trouble is the fluctuating price can p i s s you off because they change dramatically in the last minute and a half.
They shorten ,they ease.
Very frustrating.