I'm with you there Chuck. Too good to refuse and even the place odds [for 2nd. just in case] would be as good as the odds for Californian Dane to win on openers [$1.85 the Dane. $5.50 Sparky].

A 2 horse Exacta might be a hard one. The Dane might wilt in this class with the big boys. Never been in a 'pressure cooker' race yet. Might freak out 1st. time at this level :-)

2/7x1/2/3/4/7 the Tri.

[QUOTE=crash]Sportz,

Record times are often set in these type of races were the front runner is under absolutely no pressure. Meaningless.

QUOTE]

Bit of a strange comment there, if he is under no pressure wouldn't that mean he would slow them up, hence a slower time. I admit the record doesn't mean that much because Can lago beat it the week before (obviously the tracks racing very well) but the way he beat them other 3yo with 58kg and the form coming out of that race is hard to look past, then take into account the older horses have to give him 4kg, he will be extremely tough to beat, a deserved favorite.

If the trainer is confident, then I am in the same boat.

My favourite jock is on board, this is a young horse on the up, and I think CD will give the other older competitors a run for their money.

I'll be shouting for CD tonight, but the price is just not right for me.

Anyone lining up to take odds-on for the Dane in a first effort jumping several grades into a G2 will be very welcomed by any bookie and all other punters.

If a track record means immediate favoritism in a group 2, then where are all those other record holders who never made it beyond HCP level? Any quick check of track records will reveal heaps of them. I backed and tipped one last Sat. [in the tipping comp. in that 'other' forum], Landloper in a 45K race at Sandown who broke the 1600m record. Before that the horse had never won more than a 22k race and beat Kounthekash [a better horse] doing it. Are we going to see this 'speedy' 6yr. old in a group 2 anytime soon and winning? I don't think so.

The Dane's other times beside that one run at M/V are nothing more than very ordinary. Anyway, I love setting myself up to eat humble pie and I can look forward to either heaps of 'told you so' replies after the race or ...not a squeak from anyone :-)

I'll be dutching spark of life and virage de fortune. race in two for mine.

cheers
umrum

Hi crash,

No I won't be taking any worse than evens, but I think he'll win.

It is not the time alone that he ran, it is the way he ran, the ease and dominance in all his past races that he's won.

Sandown times are exceptionally quicker than normal because of the run down the hill.

Look at all the Sandown times over distances and compare them to almost all other metro tracks, they are faster by a fair way.

We all have opinions, that's what sets markets

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It will be interesting to see if the Dane can win showing the same 'ease and dominance' among this field. I think this is a good race for him to gain some experience in a pressure race. I also think Lee has got himself a good one here who might go on to great things [win or lose tonight], but I'm sure he would be 'coughing' at the odds. A lot of punters will be connned by the light weight. He won't go any faster and the topies run with their alloted weight all the time mostly.

Well, he wasn't odds on, Crash. Quite good value in the end I thought. A good run by Virage De Fortune too.

2.45 on Austote (minus commission) was the highest rated horse so far this year.. according to my ratings.. to take it on was pretty brave I reckon... I think we can safely say that class wasn't a problem tonight... a good win against a pretty fair field... Spark of Life disappointed IMHO...

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Yeah, I think he was a bit disappointing, but I stick by what I said in my earlier post. I do think he needs at least a dead track to perform at his best. Tonight's result makes it just 3 wins from 11 starts on good tracks, but he's won 7 from 9 on dead or worse. Not sure what they will do with him now after 2 poor runs?