Agreed....

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

crash you worry me, last bet i had on childs in the situation i described the odds were in the high teens, time before that were 7's or 8's, oh & btw he happened to win.

do i really need to tell you to steer clear of conveyances that every man & his dog are on? seems so....

patience, a punters best (only) friend.

Daves,
Don't worry about this old trooper, worry about your maths 8-)

2 bricks don't build a house nor 2 bets build a long term profit. Do your maths on following the jockey [any jockey in fact] at country meetings. Loss. loss. loss.

Sorry, Childs didn't even make the list.

Date: 01/08/2005 to 12/02/2006
State = AUSTRALIA Area = Country

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Strike Rate Rides
Ryan G 115½ 88½ 55½½ 51 53 22.6% 508
Robinson A W 105 79½½ 69½ 50 34½ 20.7% 508
Graham P 101 89 115½ 92 82½ 13.2% 764
Spriggs Dale 71 54½ 58 49½ 38 15.6% 455
Robl P 68 51 48 37 32 19.3% 353
Whiteley C 60 29 27 27 34 23.8% 252
Yendall D 53 62 37½ 47 35½ 13.0% 407
Penza J 53 42 30 31 50 13.7% 388
Whitney J 45 49½ 52 36 37 11.6% 387
Travers M 44½½½ 42 47 46 39 13.6% 323
Clark T 44½ 43½ 36 51½ 28 11.2% 392
Crossland D 42 20 19½ 12 10 31.8% 132
Buckley G 41 57 57 43 47 9.3% 439
Dolendo M 40 45½ 37 40 43 10.7% 373
Duric V 40 43 26 21 26 15.7% 254
Coleman D 40 41 36 33 26½ 14.7% 272
Allen Matthew 40 20 19 12 18 25.2% 159
Cross B 38 37 48 40 33 10.6% 359
Wheeler R 38 30 31 27 25 13.9% 273
Nolen L 38 27½ 24 27 15 18.3% 208



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Season 05/06 Tuesday, 14 February, 2006

He just made the city list [with 13.4 wins per 100 race]. At the very bottom. Any other 'money for jam' ideas?

Date: 01/08/2005 to 12/02/2006
State = AUSTRALIA Area = Metropolitan

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Strike Rate Rides
Beadman D 83 66 51 39½ 33 23.9% 347
McCoull B 57 28 14 22 16 32.4% 176
Colless G 52 46½ 29 14 21 21.4% 243
Williams C 47 51 33 27 31 15.7% 300
Boss G 45 45½½ 24 35½ 31 16.9% 266
Byrne J 45 21 27 21½ 24 21.5% 209
Beasley D 44 39½ 37 27½ 34½ 14.9% 296
Nikolic D 44 28½ 42½ 31 28 16.4% 269
Harvey P J 41 22 17½½½ 11 8 30.8% 133
Beasley L 41 21 18 25 16 20.1% 204
Callow N 36½ 21 17 13 7 20.7% 174
McMahon R 35 29 22 20 15 14.1% 249
Brown J J 34 37 27½½ 13 20½ 17.2% 198
Cassidy L 34 32 44 44½ 31 11.3% 300
Taylor J 33 35 33 36 29 9.2% 357
Leckey S 33 27 18 14 17 18.5% 178
Purton Z 32 38½ 46 26 42 10.6% 301
Lindop Ms C 30 26 22 19 21 14.9% 201
Fujii K 29 41½ 26 17 29 11.5% 253
Childs G 29 21 25½ 21 26½ 13.4% 216

Important missing info their is average price and POT/LOT for those jocks. Childs doesn't get on all the shorties like Beadman for example, and Childs is still one of the best jocks in the country. Beautifully balanced, patient, rides them calmly (not these bananas taking off 10W like they're on a trail bike fleeing a crime).

You just have to take inability of jockeys into your assessments Crash. As you probably know I'm a ratings man - if you have a horse who is obviously a consistent 103 rater (I'm using expert form points rating as the example so you know what scale I'm talking here) and he has I.M.Hopeless on his back, no way in the world will I allow him his 103. He'll get 100 or so. If however he had I.M.Fabulous (doesn't exist) on his back, he'd get his full 103. As with anything, jockey is just another factor to be considered. If he had Mr Fabulous on his back, he might be priced $3.0 by me. With Hopeless on board, he might be $11, or whatever.

I know it's the same thing that everyone has always said, but it's the right way - penalise the bad jockeys, don't penalise the good ones, and bet the overs.

That's my opinion anyway!!

Hi Crash!
I am probably out on a limb here, but I never take any notice of Jock or trainer any more in my ratings. (I used to!). As far as I am concerned the only entity in the race that is unaware of the price on the tote is the horse! That's what I concentrate on.
In my opinion you are right about country jocks.
And to prove that I am not blind re. jockey's abilities, I follow MS L Allpress who rides in NZ. She is good for a place if the horse is not shortish ie. >=15/1. or not too long ie. over 40/1. She is most prominent on long shots in feature races.
I give away one of my secret tools, for the benefit of you all, most of you probably know it anyway. I have a record of every horse's winning price pattern and bet accordingly, regardless if I rated it on top or if it's the fav.
It is amazing how many horses only win when the price is right????
How the h...l did they know?
Good luck

Faced with the stats of Child's poor strike rates [bottom in the city and not even registering in the country], it's amazing how you continue to believe that 2+2=5.

Give me a break Duritz. Drag up your proof on average prices. I've done enough leg-work I think on your unsubstantiated 'money for jam' claims.

PS. The lowest price on the 'country list is:Buckley G 41 57 57 43 47 9.3% 439 . To make a very small profit on him, you would need an average of $10 approx. per ride [not in a pink fit]. Childs who didn't even make the list, would have to average a lot better. Any chance of that? About as much as the Martians landing at dawn tomorrow.

???

Never laid claim to money for jam, and certainly don't think you can blindly follow a jockey and win, never said that either. What I SAID was that jockeys inability needs to be a major factor when you do the form. That's it.

Apologies for trying to help.

Whatever you say. Lets leave it at that. You never mentioned 'money for jam' following Childs in the bush.