Regarding the longest run of favourites not winnin...I have read on another australian website(can't remember which one unfortunately)that there were two runs of more than 50 favourites losing in a row over the last couple of years. Sorry I can't point you to the website, but if you surf for a while you might find it yourself, or maybe someone on this system has the data and would be willing to share it. Good luck.

Just reviving the question on morning lines. Anybody know a website that has these for Australian racing?

Thanks again,

-Duck

I thought I should also point out what I'm up to. While at the cottage I'm trying to figure out how to use opposing information. For example, we would like to bet on favourites but they don't come in as often as the word favourite might imply. So if we 'know' that horse won't be first, what can we do with the other information? Same thing with the absolute longshot.

I'm using a genetic algorithm to search for the appropriate rules. I'm also trying it in Prolog. Admittedly this is to keep up my experience on both but it's a very interesting application for them!

Thanks for all the info, directly or indirectly supplied. Results should be here first week in September.

-Duck

Gidday Duck.
Don't think we have your equivalent of an official morning line. There's pre-post prices in each metro newspaper but they're pretty rough, usually just one guy's estimate. No official pre-post prices exist as they are not needed for framing off-course markets.

The theoretical longest run of outs one should expect of the Fav ,which statistical show a strike rate of 30% ,
is 20 OUTS in a row, at some time , it might only happen 3 times within a year ,but it will happen , we just dont know when the run will start & end.
So one must have a provision in place to try & gear against total desimation, one idea is to stop once you have 8 outs in a row then start again once one of your selections gets up.
Last start winning Favs. win approx. 35% in their next start.

Check it out.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Bhagwan.
Alternatively one might wait until there are three or four or whatever consequetive losers, then begin your betting.

michaelg.what.come in on the grouter.

Hi Duck
Try http://www.australianracing.com/
Racing info, Overnights.

It's the closest thing to a morn.line I've
been able to find online.

Cheers

I ran the 141,121,161,etc idea through 8000 races .

Unfortunatly, it showed a -30% loss on turn over , one would have to place some filters onto it to drive it into some sort of profit.

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Cheers.

A filter that seems to work with the above plan is to only back the selections with exposed form of.
121,131,141,151,161,171,181,191,101.

1) TAB Nos. 2-5 only (it dies in the butt if No.1 is backed)

2) $4.20-12.00 in the prepost market.
( a % loss is created if backing mules under this vaue.)

__________________
Cheers.