OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#11

12th November 2006, 07:52 PM

Punter4211 Punter4211 is offline

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Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 156

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I plan on running this side by side with the formula i use, i am very happy with the results i get.

Hi,
Would you believe I've had so many things on, I havent had a chance to look at them as yet.. But I will do it during the week.

It's a shame there are only two days in a weekend.

Regards
Ozpunter

#12

20th November 2006, 07:54 PM

Punter4211 Punter4211 is offline

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Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 156

Quote:

Originally Posted by ubetido

Hi the formula is as follows:

X[(XY-1)(Z+1)
X+1

3[(3*4)-1(9+1)]
3+1

3*11*10
4

So to your dividends
2.5 2.7 12 expected dividend $53

Cheers

Hi ubetido,
Thanks for contributing to my request, but unfortunately I couldn't fathom your formula. When I did it on a spread sheet as I interpreted it I got an answer vastly different to the example you've given. Perhaps, if you have time you could walk me through it... The test dividends are A=2.5, B=2.7 & C=12 (dollars of course)

Thanks
Oz Punter

#13

20th November 2006, 07:59 PM

Punter4211 Punter4211 is offline

Member

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 156

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

The formula Ubetido put in is correct i have used it before works a treat, divis or normaly higher than the rated prices i will give an exaample from a race today.

The Oaks

Win div of the first 3 places from Unitab

1st $2.50 =a
2nd $2.70 =b
3rd $11.60 =c

take 1 from each price
1.5
1.7
10.6

(1.5x((1.5x1.7)-1)xC)/a)

Payout is $10.79

Trifecta payed $34.10

Hi Shaun,
Thanks for contributing to my request for a trifecta formula. Your explanation seems to be fairly easy to follow but I still couldn't get your $10.79 example result when I tried the formula out. Perhaps if you have time you could walk me through an example.

Kind Regards
OzPunter

#14

20th November 2006, 08:03 PM

Punter4211 Punter4211 is offline

Member

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 156

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfc

This is the correct solution:

A: 2.5
B: 2.7
C: 12
D: =0.8/(E1*F1*G1/(1-E1)/(1-E1-F1)) expected Div
E: =0.84/A1
F: =0.84/B1
G: =0.84/C1

It matches Brave Chief's formula (oft-repeated according to the search function).

It assumes unbiased distributions, Win returns of 84% and Trifecta returns of 80%.

Hi JFC,
Thanks for contributing to my request for a solution to the Trifecta problem, unfortunately I could not get a sensible result with the example given. Perhaps if you have time you could walk me through the formula to see how you came up with the result.

Thanks
OzPunter

#15

20th November 2006, 08:55 PM

ubetido

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: (Australia)

Posts: 348

Hi Oz Punter

On your spreadsheet in cell A2 type in the following:

=B2*(B2*C2-1)*(D2+1)/(B2+1)

If you type 5 in cell B2 and C2 and D2 it should give you 120

Cheers
ubetido

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Life should NOT be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in an attractive and well preserved body,but rather to skid in sideways, BEER in one hand- PIZZA in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming WOO HOO!

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