Racer

Well I can't offer an opinion on overseas racing, but the reason about 30% of favourites win Australian races is because on average they are given about a 30% chance in the market, isn't it??

As a very quick and dirty example, the average SP for all fav's on the Vic TAB at the city meetings in VIC, NSW, QLD and SA last Saturday 9th Dec was approx $3.09 (32.36%). The Saturday before, 2nd Dec, the figure was approx $3.18 (31.44%). That gives us an average over those two days of 31.9%. I've not deducted the TAB's vig but you get the idea.

In the 62 races run over those two days, 19 Vic TAB favourites won, which is about 30.64%

I'm not somebody that watch's the Fav's specifically. Sometimes I lay them, sometimes I don't. It all depends on how the planets align.

Bye

Pixie

Or the Jockey and horses Biorythym on the day.

Cheers.
darky

Yes, there's a US website that specialises in thoroughbred biorythms. Could be the magic angle ... or maybe not.

Fair enough thanks Pixie, your examples appear to back up your conclusion
and it would be approx. the same idea re. any of the other countries.

Regards.

So I'm relatively new to this racing game.

How exactly does this affect us punters?

I've 8 systems that have worked well over two years of back data and seem to have been working quite well up with the exception of November with real money.

Some of them are based on a speed rating others on the GTX ratings. How will this change affect them? Anyone have any ideas?

Alex.

Alex

I doubt it changes anything at all, although I'm certain some around here would disagree. If you've been collecting data for 2 years you should be able to draw a conclusion yourself. Are your numbers looking any different? Remembering though that there are many, many nag's going around at this time of year.

Pixie.

Me for one Pixie, but naturally I would very much like to be wrong, if you
and Alex are winners then I only wish you both continuing success, and anyone else who can WIN at this time.
I'm old and can't adapt to this new fangled mess, but you both might be young, sharp, and adaptable.

All I say is if you are both winning then it will be in your interests to
check re. any changing situation and the data should tell you if any downturn
is attributable to this new mess, or just simply random, because you and Alex might not go anywhere near the referred to racetypes, and therefore might not experience any real detrimentals.

Alex mentioned something about, until November, hopefully that was just a
fluke off month.
The only thing that tells all is time.

Regards.

It's interesting to note that since the introduction of computers with all the stats. now at our fingertips, the favorite win rate SR hasn't changed a bean.

In other words, the public who's weight of bets decide which horse is the final SP fav. has not improved it's ability in selecting the true SP fav. regardless of all the new high tech info. available.

The same number of favourites win, but you can bet your bottom dollar the prices are a lot worse now. You see the "real good" favourites have crunched in price enormously. The so so favourites have still held their price.
Edges have been ground away with the advent of computers, internet etc.
I know one old guy who had a system that returned around 18% POT over twenty years and in the last ten years it's gone to negative.
Of course, it could just be his system, but it's a very wide ruled one and I can't see why it would change, as the strike rate stayed the same, the odds have been decimated.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I was nodding my head 'Fav. prices going down, doWN, DOWN! YEAH, YES. OATH!" with all that in your post Chrome as I've been on the punt a very long time [about 37 yrs. now] and can relate to that. Then I started thinking about it ...'think' ...'think' ???

Now I'm no great maths. man but my reasoning ability, although mellowed by time a bit, is still pretty sharp and I can't quite get my head around prices going down and fav. SR staying the same due to more info. being available due to Computers etc. [?] Isn't that a mathematical oxymoron?

If the ability to pick winners has stayed the same [same SR as before high tech.] but prices are going down, then that means the number of punters picking [the same] winners has gone up but our ability to pick the CORRECT winner[s] hasn't changed.
In other words, we are still making the same mistakes as pre-HT [high tech.] punters, but just a lot more people [prices going down] are making the same ones!

You see what I mean about the oxymoron bit? It doesn't make sense, as HT should be improving the punter public's accuracy [higher fav. SR] in picking winners, not just increasing the amount of punters in the winner prize pools !

Maybe I just need a BEX and a good lie down [?] :-)