Hi Bhagwan

Plenty of food for thought there.

Very informative and encouraging, appreciated.

I will try your first plan over the excel sheet first, will take a few days.

I think its going to be hard to come up with a staking plan to suit average odds over 40 bets of approximately 15/8, my selections are going to be short priced and that cant be avoided.

Its the simplest selection plan that im able to work “on the run”.

There are not too many selections each day and this helps too, of course this time of year on this side of our planet the weather takes its toll.

Will get back soon with result of test.


Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Chrome Prince,

Thank you for your comment takes a bit of reading to see the point and I totally agree with you.

I personally don’t believe Level Stakes is a realistic betting system unless your bank is in the thousands, but I do agree that it’s the yardstick by which all other plans have to be measured.

Will be posting stats for my plan and with levels in a while, hope we can talk more then.


Kevin

Novice Punter

The Ten Commandments of Gambling
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1. Thou shalt honor thy gambling debts.

2. Thou shalt expect to lose.

3. Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.

4. Thou shalt not over-bet thy bankroll.

5. Thou shalt not believe in betting systems.

6. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

7. Thou shalt covet good rules.

8. Thou shalt not make side bets.

9. Thou shalt have good gambling etiquette.

10. Thou shalt tip [ the waiter :-) ].

See 'The Wizard of Odds' regarding staking plans etc.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

Hi Bhagwan

Quicker than I thought.

Here is the updated sheet, along the 112233 plan I have also put in an idea I was trying last year.

What is the easiest way to calculate ROI / SR / POT ETC, not things I know much about.


Kevin

Novice Punter

Attached Files

G 6 Plan 2.xls (154.5 KB, 1360 views)

Hi Novice,
This is the way I do it .

Net Profit calculation
(also known as P/L)
Write down the total Gross Returns (this means the total Ret including the bet amnt before net profit is calculated) e.g. $240

Write down the total Outlays e.g. $200

Take one away from the other e.g. $240-200= +$40 Net Profit & that will be ones P/L (profit /loss)

POT calculation.
Divide the above Net Profit figure into the total Outlay figure
e.g. +40/200 = 20% POT (profit on turnover)

If it was a Loss say -10/200 = -5% LOT (loss on turnover)

It makes it easy to compare statergys once everything is converted to percentages.

SR calculation
Divide the number of winners by the total number of bets
e.g. 50 wins / 167 bets = 30% SR (strike rate)

ROI calculation
(Gross Return on Investment) in this case it is the Gross Ret
e.g. $240 / 200 = 120% ROI (before net is caculated).
Take away 120% -100% = 20% POT (net profit)

Personally I dont use ROI calculation, I have shown it here because you requested it.

I use SR percentages & POT percentages only.

Average Dividend is caculated by dividing the No. of winners into the Gross $ Ret amount e.g. 50 wins / $240 = $4.80 av div.

Once you have worked out your SR, I will be able to give you an approximation of what the longest run of outs one should encounter at some stage & it will happen , no matter how good a plan is.
We need to know this, so we can create a stratergy in advance so when it happens , we wont be caught off guard.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan

Thanks for that very detailed explanation.

I always thought the day would come when I would regret all the time spent fishing instead of going to school, at my age now it was a safe assumption but today is that day.

Awesome stuff there, a bit complicated for me but I can get someone to go through it with me.

Will get back soon.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Very kind of you to take the time to help out another like that, Bhagwan. Good on you!

The old progressive staking plan Chestnut [turning lead into gold]. Just remember the maths: If your selection method makes a loss betting flat stakes, it'll make an even bigger loss with ANY progressive staking plan because they all increase both profit AND loss.

It's better to try to make a profit betting flat stakes with your selection process first before considering any progressive staking plan. If that fails, try to improve your selection method rather than lose even more money on staking plan 'Alchemy'.


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No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... -- Probability and Measure (page 94, second edition) by Patrick Billingsley

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'The number of 'guaranteed' betting (staking) systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis'.

-- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein
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Hi Novice,
Heres another angle one may like to check out.

Its called betting to price & is considered by many as a better way to place ones bets as opposed to level stakes betting.

The idea is to have a base takeout amount e.g. $10, one then divides the dividend into that amount.
e.g. $10/$3.20 = $3.00 bet
e.g. $10/2.10 = $5.00 bet

It is said that it keeps the bets in perspective based on the fact more shorter pricess horse win than longer priced horses.

An alternative to this is that one increases the base amount by 10% after each loss.
e.g. 10 11 12 13 14 15 ect
One repeats the base takeout amount if a winner is struck but still not in profit.

Maybe its an idea not to go past 15 so as to fit in with your G6 stratergy.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Yes... there is elements of greatness here, Duke.

PS the invite to the house of St A was of the real kind. Time is fleeting, madness....

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB