Very kind of you to take the time to help out another like that, Bhagwan. Good on you!

The old progressive staking plan Chestnut [turning lead into gold]. Just remember the maths: If your selection method makes a loss betting flat stakes, it'll make an even bigger loss with ANY progressive staking plan because they all increase both profit AND loss.

It's better to try to make a profit betting flat stakes with your selection process first before considering any progressive staking plan. If that fails, try to improve your selection method rather than lose even more money on staking plan 'Alchemy'.


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No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... -- Probability and Measure (page 94, second edition) by Patrick Billingsley

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'The number of 'guaranteed' betting (staking) systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis'.

-- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein
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Hi shoto,

May I say, if the members of this forum are a fair representation of Australian Society then I really would love to live there, the members here have been very helpful and courteous, believe me I know the difference having posted my ideas in other forums.

There is an old saying class will always come out on top.

I totally agree with you about Bhagwan, and if he doesn’t mind me saying, I believe he is a highly respected and valued member of this community.

I have read most of his posts and would recommend that beginners and improvers like myself to do the same.

I would like nothing better than talk racing all day with you guys and have a few long necks in the cooler, sounds like heaven to me.

Regards to All


Kevin


Novice Punter

Hi crash,

Thank you for them words of wisdom, they can never be said often enough or loud enough.

I will be posting the results of my system/plan soon and with that information hopefully we can improve on things.


Kevin


Novice Punter

I agree entirely with Crash on this one.

If the goal is to turn a negative expectation into a positive outcome, then a staking plan will merely temporarily "hide" your losses. This can be dangerous to the punter who is unaware of this fact and has false confidence in the future outcome of his strategy.

A staking plan will "eventually" magnify an existing profit or loss.

However, if the goal is to get through a long run of losses, knowing that the betting method is sound, then there is no better method than level stakes in my opinion.

Concentrating on the strategy itself rather than the amount staked will reap far greater rewards in the longrun. If a long run of losses occurs, it is likely that the profit from the strategy comes from one or two longshots overall and the likelihood of this repeating before you bust your bank is minimal and risky, therefore throwing more money at such a plan on false hope is dangerous play.

__________________
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Thanks Shoto,
For your kind words.



Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Chrome Prince,

Thank you for your comment takes a bit of reading to see the point and I totally agree with you.

I personally don’t believe Level Stakes is a realistic betting system unless your bank is in the thousands, but I do agree that it’s the yardstick by which all other plans have to be measured.

Will be posting stats for my plan and with levels in a while, hope we can talk more then.


Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Bhagwan

Here goes the moment of truth, I have never gone into this kind of detail before.

Not sure what it all means yet but thanks to you I can now do these calculations myself.

Level Stakes

POT
5.69%

SR
38.77%

ROI
105.69%

AV Div
6.35


G 6 Plan

POT
5.7828%

SR
38.771

ROI
105.78

Av Div
2.72839


Hope these make sense.


Kevin

Novice Punter

The Ten Commandments of Gambling
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1. Thou shalt honor thy gambling debts.

2. Thou shalt expect to lose.

3. Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.

4. Thou shalt not over-bet thy bankroll.

5. Thou shalt not believe in betting systems.

6. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

7. Thou shalt covet good rules.

8. Thou shalt not make side bets.

9. Thou shalt have good gambling etiquette.

10. Thou shalt tip [ the waiter :-) ].

See 'The Wizard of Odds' regarding staking plans etc.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

Novice Punter,
Your figures will make more sense if we know how many bets you are talking about [?]