Here's my comments on Maria's system.

It's one thing laying to her staking plan on UK racing and a whole different ballgame on AUS racing.

For example:

Odds on horses lose a lot more in the UK, because most of them are over jumps and two to three miles. Many of them do not win like odds on chances either, often they just get in or flop. It's rare to see them win by more than a few lengths.

Opposing that in AUS many odds on horses win and at Betfair prices you almost break even.

The most money I've made is laying odds on horses in the UK over jumps.
If I applied this to AUS racing I'd just sneak in a very slim profit.

This is why her staking plan was so successful.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Chrome, I think you'll find over time, the number of favs that win will even out and be very close to what happens here. Have at look at Adrian Massey's site. In regard to Maria's system, I only looked at the first couple of pages and the last couple. On the last day she did not seem to lay a lot of favourites, and the average price was around 7.70.

[QUOTE=Mark]
Balance $3000
0-3.5 $30
3.55-7.4 $18
7.6-11 $12

Todays losers.

G1 6 CLEARLOVE no bet
G2 4 SCHIBELLO 7.4 +17.10
G3 2 PRINCESS PEDRILLE 10 +11.40
G4 2 CLERIC 4.6 -64.80
G5 8 KING CLIP 9.4 +11.40
G6 13 SO FANTASTIC no bet
G7 3 GRAND TRAVERSE no bet
G8 6 NOTICED no bet

S1 2 YOU'RE FANTASTIC 6.4 +17.10
S2 7 MERRIER 2.8f +28.50
S3 12 GOLDEN DAISY no bet
S4 1 BOORTKOI DRAGON no bet
S5 10 GET THEM TIGRESS 7.0 +17.10
S6 10 MYCOLADA no bet
S7 5 ELECTRONIC MILLION 9.0 +11.40
S8 9 IN AN INSTANT no bet
S9 7 PRIZED PACKET 5.8 +17.10

A1 5 COUNTRY JOY 5.6 +17.10
A2 13 STARQUIST 3.7f +17.10
A3 4 AMBA ALE 4.7 +17.10
A4 7 OPEN EYRE no bet
A5 5 IRON MONGER no bet
A6 2 CLASSY GRACE 10.5 +11.40
A7 1 LITTLESIXFOOT no bet


24 picks, 13 bets, 12 winners, 92.3% strike rate.
Total profit = + $129.00, or +4.3% of balance.

Friday's starting balance $3129
Bets will be $31.29 (1%), $18.77 (0.6%), and $12.51 (0.4%).

A promising start.

From all of my selections, (which admittedly I did not post), top 2 picks won 46%, 3rd pick won 8%, and the winner was not in my top 3 in 46% of races. Which is pretty close to my long term average of 46/13/41. 3rd pick was less than normal which accounts for the good start.

Comments, ideas anyone???

I'm not suggesting that the number of winning favourites changes, just the strike rate of shorter favourites.

I'm also suggesting to be careful when laying those under $3.00, according to my calculations, you'd lose money laying them all, unless you have an angle.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I still think you'll find that the breakdown of winners prices would be very similar. I do agree about laying all under 3.0, however, there was only 1 today and it got beat.

Mark, CP,

I ran this against one of my laying methods to see how it would have performed in the last week (Feb 16th till Feb 22nd inclusive).

There were 37 winners from 187 lays (strike rate of 19.7%).

The total return minus betfair commission was 36.9% profit.

Assuming a bank of $3,000 and laying as Mark was with 30, 18, 12 amounts your total profit would have been $1,107

Thats not a bad return for a week. It might just have been a lucky week though.

I might try it over the next few days and see what it returns. Not one of the days returned a loss.

Good Luck.

Yes, Mark, a very promising start, and also very encouraging seeing that the strike rate of your top three selections did not deviate from the long term average.

I remember reading in one of Don Scott's books that it is silly to bet the same amount on each horse, particularly when betting multiple horses in the same race, and that the amount wagered should be weighted as per your rating/price even if there's only one horse in a particular race. Going on this, the bookie would therefore prefer you to ignore D.Scott's advice and to bet the same amount on each horse

If the bookie prefers you to bet the same amount on each horse it would therefore be logical for Betfair layers to do the same by laying horses for the same amount.

I wonder how Maria would have fared if she had done this and had also increased her stake proportionate to the day's result just as she actually did after a winning day.

Out of interest, I compared this with your system today - the result/profit was almost identical to yours.

Another observation - as Maria's strike rate was so good I would not be surprised if a more aggressive staking plan would have produced even more phenomenal results. If this is really the case, then you and Angry Pixie might consider a stronger staking plan?

Mark

Hi thanks yes it is going along ok. Only returning around 7-8% level POT but the projections look promising so it's all churn, churn, churn. I'm only working it on Saturday, Night, Holiday and Sick Day gallops meetings. It's quite selective with only around 10 or so lays on an average Saturday.

At the moment I'm laying to a fixed liability of 10% of my bank, using the TwoNix MiniMax staking method. I'm stepping that up to 11.67% starting this Saturday.

Anyway it's what you've started doing that everybody is interested in.

Pixie

open apology to mark to whom ive apparrently abused in the past ...for what i dont really know i am a drunk and i dont think that is a just excuse so cap in hand please accept this humble or pathetic apology ......ty

I've only been lurking here since just before Xmas.
I would never consider a lay before, but I decided to follow michaelg's picks for a lay. Then I got hooked and decided to try my own system. I started out on second favourites, but quickly noticed 3rd picks were better. I went 3 dayds without haviing to make a payout.
Didn't last long though, though. I copped 3 $60 dollar + payouts in one day.
Anyhow, i srarted with 100 dollars and I am now up to $1200 after about 4 weeks.My starting bets were $6 but now are $10. I use a free "betting assistant" to help me pick the "real" third favourite.
I also used a system similar to Maria's but not as good, so I'm going to apply her staking plan from tomorrow with a fictive $2000 bank.