Chrome,

No mate, you sprooking assumptions based on what you 'feel' is logical. One thing I have learned in this game is that racing 'logic' [most punters follow it] often leads to the poor house.

Someone puts a big bet on and all the wallies [those following the 'smart' money :-) ] jump on board taking whacking big unders and we all know that taking unders leads to the Salvo's ...... Shortener's = [inevitably] Underlays!

The golden rule is : VALUE and most shortener's by their very nature, don't fit that bill.

Opening prices and final prices would be required to prove anything about drifters and firmers.

Crash,

With all due respect, you seem to be following the tone of the email that was sent to me, that I have proven to be false by making in excess of 20% by doing the exact reverse for almost four months. Apart from the months I have been doing it, I researched 56,000 races - not TAB data but actual bookmakers fluctuations before I even contemplated betting.

It's not based on an assumption, nor on a gut feel, but facts from the track.

If you look at tote fluctuations, that's pretty useless and you do get the worst prices overall.

I pose this question...if there is no value in backing the shorteners, how is it I'm making a profit doing just that. I'm not the only one doing it either. The main difference I'm not getting underlays is because I'm getting close to the best price on those shorteners.

Those "wallies" do not bet on the tote, they bet where the value is, so that process alone belies the fact they are wallies.

Stable money rarely goes on the tote - it goes on the bookies.

For the record I recorded opening price, first fluctuation, second fluctuation and final price of bookies markets - not tote markets.

All that aside, I'm not trying to convert anyone, just pointing out that the email I was sent was not accurate according to my Betfair balance

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You'd need to test it by comparing the strike rate of firmers and drifters that start at the same price. As an example, do starters that firm from 6/1 into 4/1 win any more races than starters that drift from 2/1 out to 4/1?

I also have no bias either way but do know from experience that when the big firm is on, that's the lay bet I want to stay out of.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

AngryPixie,

That's actually how I started my investigation.
I kept getting beaten on my lay bets when a firm move was made. This happened on a regular basis and according to my records I couldn't ignore the hard facts any longer.

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I lost all of yesterdays profits in two lays that went bad today. They were absolute last second big firmers. Private info still rules!

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

With all due respect Chrome,

I'd love a $1 for every punting fact/fallacy based on a punters 'personal' experience/betting records/whatever. Your falling into the same trap as the em writer, as I bet his assertions/facts are based on exactly the same 'proof' your basing yours on, which makes his/her claims just as valuable.

Like I said earlier about drifters and shortener's, I have no opinion either way but I do know that my wins are mostly drifters as that's where the value is as far as I'm concerned. Whether they win more races or less races than shortener's is all a bit academic as I don't bet on every race being run.

As for 'Steamers': Your 'proof' originally claimed by you in first post...

"By avoiding them, he is suggesting you shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

The proof....

I have layed 80 drifters in the last three racing days for a profit of 14.67 units
I have backed 82 steamers in the last three days for a profit of 37.15 units

Had I backed the drifters instead of laying them I would have outlaid 80 units for a return of $64.33 - a loss of 15.67 units.

Had I layed the steamers, I would have lost close to 36 units."


Proof = 3 days of personal punting results[?] lol lol :-))

The three days was an example crash,

the proof lies in 4 months plus 56,000 races.

I never said you or anyone else can't make money from drifters, I said that ignoring the steamers was killing the golden goose, and for me it lays golden eggs.

each to their own, I guess.

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Following the money solely today - no form.

Out 50
In 70.66
Profit 20.66 Units
41.32% POT

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No use skiting about following 'the smart money' here mate [I saw a good example of that in r2 in Bris., following that donkey down to $1.15!].

You should have just followed my money, as you could have almost added another zero to your profit percentage yesterday.

The real smart money went on with a whoosh in Brisbane [another in Melb. too] far too late for money watchers to follow.
34/1 down into 15/1 within seconds before the jump while your lot was too busy jumping all over the donkey to notice anything!

PS: Don't take me too seriously Chrome. Just a friendly ribbing! lol lol :-))

I layed Scattergun crash, as there was no smart money for it, from my sources it remained rock solid at $1.20 all through betting, unless of course you're talking about tote corrections.

One can't necessarily carte blanche just lay drifters and back firmers, there is a point where drifters become profitable and firmers become unprofitable, but it's probably the reverse of what is commonly thought.

Some examples of the shorter horses I layed that firmed:
Black Tom
Aerated
Delusion
Scattergun
Go Sequalo
Mashudu
Hy Dream
Paris Zero
Fire In The Night
Collodi
Hot Danish
Camarilla
Blutigeroo
Foxy Boy

Of that lot only Mashudu and Hot Danish won.

Some examples of the shorter horses I backed that firmed:

Devil Moon WON
Lord Of The Dance WON
Bonza Crop WON
Two Fingers
The Jackal
Jay Low Girl WON
Miss Kooch
Tipungwuti
Mi Casa

Then I have the drifters that I backed:

Striken
Mr Lovalover
Jestajeune
Danes Mystery WON
Scenes
Class Apart WON
Starbird
Classic Truce
Bitabiff WON
Schapelle WON
Elegant Roi
Tricky Belle WON
Rock Slide WON
Romsey
Lachlan Valley
Shouldawon
Love's Great WON
Amberino
Evilweb WON
McCloud
Bianomour
Bobadah WON
Hot 'N' Ready
Haradasun
Bentley Biscuit WON
Yaya Lad
San Simeon

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