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  #11  
Old 27th April 2007, 04:32 PM
DR RON DR RON is offline
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Wes, are they the final ratings as on the worksheet, or do you use some of your own thoughts ? IMHO I think that the condition penalty for first uppers can be a bit misleading. They penalise them 6 kilos which I think gives some very false ratings on occasions. I have finished trying to work out a neurals method as it is just to hard to come up with something consistent, and have now moved back to the more traditional weight ratings. I'm going to try and post some past results using the don scott ratings but with my own style applied.
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  #12  
Old 27th April 2007, 04:39 PM
odericko
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call me a sceptical ************ but i think that web site that gives you those neural thingies is flawed ,,,i must admit i thought for a while there that neurals were a good thing but i have now seen the light?? why would they give something away for free .... my guess is in this game you dont give an edge away free therefore dont bother with them you will allways lose in the end i think.there fore iam ty..
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  #13  
Old 27th April 2007, 04:54 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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I like the thread title the "Don Scott Method". Sounds like some type of weight loss program. Good luck Wes, hope the weight doesn't come off the wallet first
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  #14  
Old 27th April 2007, 05:08 PM
crash crash is offline
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Following favorites every race on every card certainly has nothing to do with Don Scott but it's a good way to lighten the wallet [keep your rent money separate from your bet money].
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  #15  
Old 27th April 2007, 06:41 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Todays results :

Colac
Race 1: Miss Fiality ($2.10) - Ran at $4.00 LOST
Race 2: Fingal Bay ($3.80) - Ran at $4.90 LOST
Race 3: Park Ranger ($3.90) - Ran at $5.70 LOST
Race 3: Spy Valley ($3.90) - Ran at $3.10 LOST
Race 4: Noah's Pearl ($3.10) - Ran at $16.30 LOST
Race 5: Sir Trisdan ($3.60) - Ran at $3.20 3rd
Race 6: Dawnstorm ($1.90) - Ran at $3.00 LOST
Race 7: Off White ($1.70) - Ran at $6.90 LOST
Race 8: Sheer Vintage ($3.00) - Ran at $5.40 WIN $5.40

Grafton
Race 1: Hernani ($4.00) - Ran at $6.20 LOST
Race 2: Hastings Crown ($2.40) - Ran at $4.40 LOST
Race 3: Spikes 'n' Spurs ($1.20) - Ran at $2.10 2nd
Race 4: Medieval Countess ($2.60) - Ran at $12.20 LOST
Race 5: King Of The Nile ($1.30) - Ran at $2.00 WIN $2.00
Race 6: Classy Shinko ($4.20) - Ran at $3.60 3rd
Race 7: Dream Spirit ($1.90) - Ran at $30.00 3rd
Race 8: Beautiful Bearing ($2.40) - Ran at $3.30 3rd
Race 9: Success In Japan ($3.90) - Ran at $18.00 LOST

Queanbeyan
Race 1: Wilpena ($1.70) - Ran at $3.60 WIN $3.60
Race 2: Ticket To Run ($1.40) - Ran at $2.40 2nd
Race 3: Absolutely Me ($1.30) - Ran at $1.90 WIN $1.90
Race 4: Gold Waltz ($2.90) - Ran at $3.90 WIN $3.90
Race 5: Chronic Addiction ($3.30) - Ran at $3.70 LOST
Race 6: Cocomotion ($1.40) - Ran at $15.50 LOST
Race 7: Blevaria ($4.80) - Ran at $3.60 3rd
Race 8: Louisianna Flyer ($2.00) - Ran at $2.40 WIN $2.40

Rockhampton
Race 1: Queen Bird ($2.80) - Ran at $2.10 2nd
Race 2: Love God ($1.80) - Ran at $3.00 3rd
Race 3: Beg My Pardon ($3.00) - Ran at $15.00 LOST
Race 4: Wenona Rose ($2.10) - Ran at $40.00 LOST
Race 5: Jewel Speed ($1.70) - Ran at $5.30 2nd
Race 6: Where's The Spark ($3.40) - Ran at $3.70 LOST
Race 7: Kalinga Metal ($5.00) - Ran at $15.00 LOST
Race 7: Reaf Shar Baye ($5.00) - Ran at $4.50 WIN $4.50
Race 8: Danwana ($2.70) - Ran at $2.10 WIN $2.10

Sandown
Race 1: Catalan Bay ($3.90) - Ran at $4.90 WIN $4.90
Race 2: Regal Summer ($5.50)- Ran at $6.00 2nd
Race 2: Karikuri ($5.50)- Ran at $8.80 3rd
Race 3: Our Maharaja ($3.90) - Ran at $4.00 3rd
Race 4: White Diamonds ($3.10)- Ran at $6.50 3rd
Race 5: Samadji ($2.40) - Ran at $2.70 2nd
Race 6: Picquart ($4.60) - Ran at $9.70 LOST
Race 7: Loanhead ($2.00) - Ran at $3.20 WIN $3.20
Race 8: Millie Rose ($5.00) - Ran at $6.80 3rd


Today:

All Selections: 44
All Return : $33.90
Higher Selections : 37
Higher Return :$27.30
Double Selecitons : 13
Double Return : $3.60

All Time :

All Selections: 135
All Return : $149.80 (11% POT)
Higher Selections : 112
Higher Return :$120.40 ( 7% POT )
Double Selecitons : 52
Double Return : $41.90 (20% LOT )

It seems the further the value comes into play the worse the selections perform. My guess is this is where the selections have got it wrong for some reason ( which could be bad data on the AAP site ).
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  #16  
Old 28th April 2007, 09:19 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Ascot
Race 1: Prince Of Sands ($1.50) - Ran at $2.00 3rd
Race 2: Danes Mystery ($1.20) - Ran at $1.90 WIN $1.90
Race 3: London Court ($5.00) - Ran at $5.00 3rd
Race 4: Wingate Street($2.20) - Ran at $2.80 WIN $2.80
Race 5: Coalseam ($2.60) - Ran at $48.00 LOST
Race 6: Royale Harvest ($2.50) - Ran at $3.00 WIN $3.00
Race 7: Comfortably Numb ($3.00) - Ran at $2.50 WIN $2.50
Race 8: Brokaw ($3.40) - Ran at $4.60 WIN $4.60


Caulfield
Race 1: Love's Great ($5.00) - Ran at $5.70 3rd
Race 1: Perelmo ($5.00) - Ran at $7.90 LOST
Race 2: Okay Oky ($4.00) - Ran at $2.50 2nd
Race 2: Let Loushe ($4.00) - Ran at $9.70 LOST
Race 3: Bellini Rose ($2.80) - Ran at $2.90 WIN $2.90
Race 4: Manna Miss ($3.50) - Ran at $4.60 LOST
Race 5: Mojo Pin ($4.40) - Ran at $3.20 2nd
Race 6: Stanzout ($2.60) - Ran at $3.30 LOST
Race 7: Raise A Call ($2.50) - Ran at $9.00 LOST
Race 8: Mistake Creek($2.00) - Ran at $2.50 2nd

Eagle Farm
Race 1: Feline Hunter ($1.80) - Ran at $4.70 3rd
Race 2: Stirling ($4.20) - Ran at $12.30 LOST
Race 3: Regal Megan ($2.90) - Ran at $5.90 LOST
Race 4: Galen ($3.60) - Ran at $3.30 LOST
Race 5: Mesmerising ($5.50) - Ran at $9.20 LOST
Race 5: Palace Lover ($5.50) - Ran at $13.70 2nd
Race 6: Westicaro ($2.70) - Ran at $5.40 LOST
Race 7: Mitanni ($2.40) - Ran at $6.30 WIN $ 6.30
Race 8: Picablu ($3.90) - Ran at $10.00 LOST


Gold Coast
Race 1: Every Which Way ($2.00) - Ran at $15.00 3rd
Race 2: Monagetti ($3.20) - Ran at $15.00 LOST
Race 3: Asituation ($3.30) - Ran at $6.80 WIN $6.80
Race 4: Little Diva ($2.50) - Ran at $7.90 LOST
Race 5: In Order ($2.70) - Ran at $15.20 LOST
Race 6: Never Miss ($2.40) - Ran at $5.60 LOST
Race 7: Meanma ($2.60) - Ran at $6.90 LOST
Race 8: Iza Comin' ($2.40) - Ran at $5.70 LOST

Morphettville
Race 1: Cloneen ($1.80) - Ran at $5.50 3rd
Race 2: Our Currency ($4.00) - Ran at $6.40 LOST
Race 3: Jaffa Jonnie ($2.90) - Ran at $3.30 LOST
Race 4: Hurricane Dancer ($3.90) - Ran at $7.70 2nd
Race 5: Marryatville ($2.80) - Ran at $4.50 LOST
Race 6: Amici Forever($2.70) - Ran at $11.20 LOST
Race 7: Family Guy ($2.50) - Ran at $2.80 WIN $2.80
Race 8: Stone Queen ($3.20) - Ran at $9.20 LOST

Rosehill
Race 1: Adriatic Ocean ($2.60) - Ran at $2.20 3rd
Race 2: Cent Per Cent ($2.90) - Ran at $2.70 WIN $2.70
Race 3: Studio Star($2.00) - Ran at $4.20 3rd
Race 4: Face Of The Earth($2.00) - Ran at $4.10 2nd
Race 5: Strat's Flyer ($3.10) - Ran at $4.20 LOST
Race 6: Hadaaf ($3.80) - Ran at $2.60 WIN $2.60
Race 6: Pelennium ($3.80) - Ran at $5.70 LOST
Race 7: Kosi Bay ($2.90) - Ran at $2.20 3rd
Race 8: Strong Choice ($2.80) - Ran at $3.50 2nd

Seymour
Race 1: Key Change ($3.10) - Ran at $8.20 LOST
Race 2: Invincible Power ($3.30) - Ran at $4.70 2nd
Race 3: Encroacher ($6.50) - Ran at $8.80 2nd
Race 3: Jetsetter ($6.50) - Ran at $11.60 LOST
Race 4: I'm No Fake ($2.90) - Ran at $5.70 LOST
Race 5: D'argent ($3.20) - Ran at $9.80 LOST
Race 6: Viognier ($3.80) - Ran at $3.00 WIN $3.00
Race 7: Etihaad ($1.40) - Ran at $2.30 WIN $2.30
Race 8: Tell Meno Secrets ($2.70) - Ran at $4.80 2nd

Toowoomba
Race 1: Canny Make It($2.00) - Ran at $26.50 LOST
Race 2: Elate And Excite ($4.20) - Ran at $6.10 LOST
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  #17  
Old 30th April 2007, 09:18 AM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Sunday Results:

Tamworth
Race 1 : Jarred Up ($3.50) - Ran at $5.00 3rd
Race 2 : Dandazoom ($2.40) - Ran at $3.70 WIN $3.70
Race 3 : Sun Vegas ($2.70) - Ran at $3.80 LOST
Race 4 : Keats ($2.50) - Ran at $3.20 WIN $3.20
Race 5 : Frisco Model($3.20) - Ran at $6.40 WIN $6.40
Race 6 : Next Adventure($2.50) - Ran at $4.00 3rd
Race 7 : Life's Too Short($2.40) - Ran at $4.00 LOST
Race 8 : Foreshore($6.50) - Ran at $16.60 LOST
Bendigo
Race 1 : Ladies In Luck ($2.00) - Ran at $4.10 2nd
Race 2 : Gold Chant ($2.70) - Ran at $2.60 WIN $2.60
Race 3 : Kicking Class ($2.50) - Ran at $3.70 WIN $3.70
Race 4 : Kindrate ($1.60) - Ran at $3.80 2nd
Race 5 : Idria ($4.00) - Ran at $2.20 WIN $2.20
Race 5 : Young Love ($4.00) - Ran at $3.70 2nd
Race 6 : Veightjuice($3.90) - Ran at $8.30 LOST
Race 7 : Saki Saki($3.80) - Ran at $18.00 LOST
Race 8 : Surfwatch($3.00) - Ran at $8.50 LOST

Sunshine Coast
Race 1 : Like Dad ($1.90) - Ran at $4.70 LOST
Race 2 : Libra Magic ($2.50) - Ran at $5.80 LOST
Race 3 : Frisco's In Charge($2.40) - Ran at $40.00 LOST
Race 4 : Blue Fox($2.50) - Ran at $4.70 LOST
Race 5 : Miss Marebelle($5.00) - Ran at $5.00 WIN $5.00
Race 6 : Just Ordained($3.00) - Ran at $3.40 2nd
Race 7 : Pay Me ($3.80) - Ran at $2.80 2nd
Race 8 : Gold Coast Express($7.00) - Ran at $34.00 LOST
Race 8 : Bald Eagle($7.00) - Ran at $4.50 LOST

Narromine
Race 1 : Mr Rainbow ($1.30) - Ran at $4.60 3rd
Race 2 : Mumsedd ($1.50) - Ran at $2.30 LOST
Race 3 : Fling The Ding ($2.50) - Ran at $25.00 LOST
Race 4 : Brisk Crown ($4.60) - Ran at $3.20 WIN $3.20
Race 5 : Carry The Dance ($1.60) - Ran at $2.80 3rd
Race 6 : Chief Resident($1.80) - Ran at $4.20 2nd
Race 7 : Gold Sultan($3.60) - Ran at $3.70 LOST

Penola
Race 1 : Our Dior ($1.30) - Ran at $2.70 WIN $2.70
Race 2 : Her Opinion ($1.70) - Ran at $3.00 3rd
Race 3 : Squeaky Beach ($1.70) - Ran at $3.30 LOST
Race 4 : He's Royal ($3.50) - Ran at $4.20 LOST
Race 5 : Pepper And Salt ($1.90) - Ran at $2.80 WIN $2.80
Race 6 : Heavens Jester ($2.80) - Ran at $2.80 3rd
Race 7 : Irkutsk($2.40) - Ran at $5.00 3rd
Race 8 : Molokai's Ladd($3.80) - Ran at $5.30 LOST
Race 9 : Fancy Force($4.00) - Ran at $5.10 LOST
Race 10: Unite And Excite($3.50) - Ran at $10.00 LOST

Northam
Race 1 : Leica Steel ($1.20) - Ran at $1.80 3rd
Race 2 : Shashti($1.50) - Ran at $1.70 LOST
Race 3 : Artillery Prince($2.90) - Ran at $3.30 3rd
Race 4 : Oroya Gold($1.60) - Ran at $1.60 WIN $1.60
Race 5 : Vixen Minx($3.50) - Ran at $11.30 LOST
Race 6 : Brocky's Ace($3.60) - Ran at $6.70 LOST
Race 7 : Double Bay($4.00) - Ran at $30.00 LOST
Race 8 : Danish Sea($8.50) - Ran at $3.80 LOST
Race 8 : Do The Timea($8.50) - Ran at $15.00 LOST

Hobart
Race 1 : Tibooburra Travis ($2.20) - Ran at $3.00 LOST
Race 2 : The Boardwalk Boy ($1.80) - Ran at $11.50 LOST
Race 3 : Maywyn's Pride ($1.50) - Ran at $2.70 LOST
Race 4 : Daneland ($2.60) - Ran at $2.10 2nd
Race 5 : Bay Ritz($4.20) - Ran at $3.40 WIN $3.40
Race 6 : Arapeho($2.10) - Ran at $2.30 2nd
Race 7 : The Real Article($3.30) - Ran at $4.30 LOST
Race 8 : Stormy Youth($2.90) - Ran at $6.70 LOST
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  #18  
Old 30th April 2007, 03:45 PM
Ricardo8 Ricardo8 is offline
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becoming tougher wesmip?? results to date?

interested in overlay favs mainly (greater on tote/tab/ias than rated odds) ...played around with a while back, and top 4 in market overlays only.
find it too hard to keep data, well accessing data actually. cant go further back than a week or so.
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  #19  
Old 1st May 2007, 01:21 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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These ratings seem to work better mid week then weekends.

Cessnock:
Race 1 : Summer Raid - Ran at $8.80 LOST
Race 2 : Fine Dane - Ran at $5.10 3rd
Race 3 : Grondie - Ran at $4.80 2nd
Race 4 : Spurnover - Ran at $3.70 LOST
Race 5 : Booboo - Ran at $9.40 LOST
Race 6 : Del Amore - Ran at $3.50 LOST
Race 7 : Mercurial Miss - Ran at $4.50 3rd
Race 8 : Snowstream - Ran at $5.50 LOST
Race 8 : Dulcina - Ran at $8.10 WIN $8.10

Wangarratta
Race 1 : Bells All Round() - Ran at $5.00 WIN $5.00
Race 2 : Portiere () - Ran at $2.40 2nd
Race 3 : Leuwin Star () - Ran at $6.10 LOST
Race 4 : Firetime () - Ran at $3.90 WIN $3.90
Race 5 : Darn Good Singa () - Ran at $5.30 WIN $5.30
Race 6 : Heartpouring () - Ran at $2.90 LOST
Race 7 : Our Causeway () - Ran at $3.30 WIN $3.30
Race 8 : Gala Evening () - Ran at $4.20 2nd
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  #20  
Old 1st May 2007, 01:54 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DR RON
IMHO I think that the condition penalty for first uppers can be a bit misleading. They penalise them 6 kilos which I think gives some very false ratings on occasions.


Couldn't agree more Dr Ron.
6 kilos is not accurate to apply across the board, some horses are better first up than others.
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