I like to ask if you watch today when one
Jockey won on 4 long odds. and lost on short
fav?We have lately some very bad planetary
config. which bring ALL bad luck for all short priced favorites.
The horses get smarter because they winning when price is right.

Regards.

wjp.

You can't discount the pressure on the jockeys either.
When an odds-on favourite is running the punters expect a perfect ride, the trainer and owners also expect a perfect ride.
Racing isn't like that.
The best horse in the race doesn't always win. Punters seem to disregard genuine interference, bad luck in running, a pace in the race not suited to the horse etc etc.

Then they bag the hell out of the jockey.

If the horse was 10/1, they'd just say oh well maybe next time!

In reply to TESTAROSSA, I thought that being here might bring up a few answers to my suspicions.
I didn't know this forum was some sort of dark society where if you dare suspect a race is fixed, you shall be cast out and banned from ever returning.
You also say that I should stay away from the sport because of my opinion, well I know that I never back the top favourite of the day anymore, because of my suspicions.
Also, I am not saying that all racing is fixed, just merely pointing out the possibilty of the occasional race.
There are hundreds of chances per week and a jockey only has to do it every now and again to get that little bit of extra pocket money.
For years they have been crying poverty, even though they drive BMW,s & Mercs, so if they are feeling hard done by, they would be more inclined to plan the odd race outcome.
It is like the blue collar worker, and probably the odd white coller worker, they might see something lying around their work place for a long time, and think it would look better in their own place, so in the boot of their car it goes.
It is all human nature, and we are not all honest!
That is why when you are operating something so critical, like a money management plan based on horseracing, you have to know exactly what is going on.
The ones who know more probably are the ones that will end up on top.

freowaytogo,

I am not discounting the fact that the occassional race may be fixed - but it would be a very small percentage of races run these days - the risks are simply too high. I certainly doubt it would happen often enough to make a big difference to you long-term profit or loss.

A bigger problem for the punter, I believe, is that in many cases horses are not always given the best chance to win because trainers want to try out different strategies in lower quality races to see how the horse performs (eg. instructing rider to restrain horse at start of race to see whether it can come from behind or going out hard to see how it lasts, etc). Now this is mainly going to be a problem with the shorter priced horses in lower quality races (no trainer is going to throw away a major race) so the simple answer is avoid backing these horses.

The simple solution, which you already seem to have found, is simply avoid odds-on horses (a sensible idea anyway in my opinion). If you always back the longer odds horses then fixing, if it exists, will never be a problem for you because you will be more likely to benefit from it than be hurt by it!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Sorry Freowaytogo , didn't mean to sound so harsh.

It just seemed to me in your posts that you thought the majority of races were fixed and in that case you shouldn't be punting , but i stand corrected.

I love horse racing so much that i don't like focusing on the negatives , because there are so many positives.

In the old days it's been well documented about all the nasty characters involved in fixing races , but in this day and age it seems impossible for anyone to get away with it , especially a jockey which is watched very closely during every race to make sure his mount was given every possible chance.

__________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.

Another thing that used to catch my eye was the use of the whip.
I would have a couple of hundred dollars riding on the top favourite, to win a measily 10% for a place.
He would come cruising in, in 4th place, no whip at all whist the rest are whipping the living daylights out of theirs.
I know the jockeys know when their horse has gone as far as possible, but when you see the next race and everyone of them are thrashing them right over the line it also gets you thinking.
I don't mind the horses at the back not get the whip but when there is still every chance, it is a bit of a bummer when it is your money on them.

Another thing which I think is wrong in racing that all runners earn or get paid $200.00 in metro and bit less in country races.Because of that some horses running for trial.Trials cost money,
then better option for trainer is to run horse in race-try tactics and get paid for.
One of the racing rules is competitive racing
not trying to to race.
That's my opinion.

Besides, have you ever ridden a race horse? They do not like to go slow. It is a job for those guys on top to keep them in check if they're plan for the race is to pace. That's why experienced jockeys win the races. They know how to handle them.

A friend of mine in California has an uncle that breeds, runs and retires racehorses. We ride the retired ones for fun. When two of them get side-by-side you have to hold on for dear life! They really could give a damn that you want them to slow down. They've been bred all their lives to be the horse in front of the other horses. I don't know how jockeys do it. We have to all but stand on the saddle and haul back on those reins like we're stopping a train.

Sure is fun though!

-Duck

TheDuck,

I used to ride my horse only in trackwork.
(I only weight 63.5kg)
It's all about balance - the horse senses the slightest shift in weight and responds accordingly. That is why some horses respond to some jockeys and not others.

There is a definite affinity with the animal. If you don't understand the horse or the horse misinterprets your "body language" it's all over!

I can certainly say that riding retired racehorses would be fun!

Just a note though, if you relax the pressure off the reins a little the horse should lope into an easy stride - HOWEVER if the horse has not raced for a long time it will just reef and tear at the bit and want to bolt away with you.
In my limited experience what you do is this....
Providing you have a "kind" bit in the bridle "saw" the bit gently in the horses mouth to and fro every time the horse wants to bolt on you - the horse won't like the sensation and will slow down.
It doesn't injure the horse in any way, it's just annoying for them.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-24 13:48 ]

Quite apart from "fixing" it does seem to me a fact that not all runners in all races are there to win.

Testarossa, your latest scheme involved last start flops. Form figures of, say, 10 or 18. And then the horse comes back to win the next start.

Certainly, horses have bad days and there is bad luck etc. but how many of these last start flops - with a single glitch in their form figures - have been given an easy race by the jockey under instruction as part of a longer term strategy for the horse? These are often your short-priced faves. Race 1 they win handsomely. Race 2, starting at a short price, fifth or worse. Race 3, back to good odds, a carbon copy of race 1.

There are, as I say, many ways to account for this phenomenon but in *some* cases might it not be part of trainer's longer term strategy. Not a strategy to manipulate the odds, necessarily, but the trainer has his eye on race 3 and race 2 is just a warm up.

I'm not acquainted with the reasoning of trainers, but as an observer of races it seems to me there are occasions where the jockey gives a short-priced last start winner a less-than-full-committed run.

From what I've seen I think racing in contemporary Australia is remarkably clean, but there are countless, utterly undetectable ways to not win a race. Are all runners in all races there to win?

Hermes