You're doing well there Crash, it's always good when the plan starts off in profit. Do you have the bets listed in away that you can compare P.O.T.?
Are you actually betting or just a dry run?

Hi Party

Sadly, I haven't been actually betting the system [Geez, I would have liked to today], but I might start throwing a few dollars at it from Monday as it's a lot of bets tomorrow.

I'm confident that it might be a good little system. If it is, a lot of punters will jump on-board and then it will hit a run of outs [as these things always do] and they will all jump off and forget about it :-))

4 day running total:
Progression: T/ol 40 T/R 56.55 T/P 16.55
Flat Stakes: T/ol 32 T/R 48.5 T/P 16.50

For those interested in what the results would have been last Saturday:

Last Sat. 7 July

EAGLE FARM (BR)
r1 MY MAN MURPHY 1.80w

ROSEHILL (SR)
r1 CANYONVILLE 3.10w

SANDOWN (MR)
r1 PIT LANE 3.70w

GOLD COAST (QR)
r1 SIR TELES 1.80w

KEMBLA GRANGE (NR)
r1, loss
r2, loss, bet 1.5
r3, loss, bet 2.25

GEELONG (VR)
r1 loss
r2 FASLIYEV DANCER, bet 1.5 1.60w [2.40]

MORPHETTVILLE (AR)
r1 HOKUSPOKUS 4.00w

BELMONT (PR)
r1 loss
r2 SO SECRET, bet 1.5 2.60w [4.00]

DARWIN (XR)
r1 loss
r2 SWEPSCAY, bet 1.5 2.60w [4.00]

TOOWOOMBA (ER)
r1 loss
r2 SECONDE, bet 1.5 4.30w [6.45]
-----------------------------------------------
O/L 21.25 R 29.45 P 8.20
Flat Stakes: O/L 16 R 25.5 P 9.50

[Not a long betting period, but I hope I'm getting my point across about flat stakes vesus Progressive staking]

I'm trying to help punters here to think outside the square. I want you to make a buck as I'm not reliant on keeping secrets, as I punt for pleasure [not profit but yes, I make a bit of that here and there] and couldn't give a damb about keeping anything I think might be profitable to myself. It might all fall over, but I'm into sharing anything I think might be profitable to the average punter.

I think I might also be getting my point across about just how many favorites get up in the first 3 races on a card. WAY above the 30% average overall!

Cheers.

This is correct but I think we need to make it clear a high strike rate doesn't make a good ROT.

All Favs: 32% SR with a 87% ROT.
Race 1: 37% SR with a 86% ROT
Race 2: 35% SR with a 87% ROT

Then lets look at a later race .. say race 6.

Race 6: 32% Strike Rate 89% ROT.

ROT is better for a slight drop in the Strike rate.

This was over 3632 meetings.

Good Luck.

Crash, yes that's what I was getting at, when I said 30% S/R, I was talking about overall including everything , no filters etc etc. then when we start to scrutinize, sure some types of races, no of runners etc etc, may create a different S/R but the POT decreases accordingly, that's why I asked you have you recorded the results in such a way to COMPARE POT, not just points profit/loss?

I'm not having a go, looks like a decent way for the occasional punter to win a bit or at least lose less, I'm watching tomorrow!... almost as closely as I'm watching "PIKE"

Party,

I realize what you are getting at and thanks for your stats info., as it gives me a comparison base for the stats of something a bit different from the stat. findings you supplied [thank you].
The Stats. you supplied would be based on SP favorites. However, this system is not based on SP favorites. The system here would have different stats. How different is as yet unknown.

I have noticed for some time how often the 3 min. to jump favorite gets up, after [often] rapidly drifting into a nice price when it doesn't start as SP [the money has been poured onto another horse by the smart money brigade, followed by the money from the legion of smart money followers]. 60% of the time the 3 min. fav. will start as fav. It's the winners from the other 40% that add an edge to your stat. figures and it would differ between say Uni Tab and Stab.

It's this above edge I have no measurements for, but I'm confident it might tum out to be a decent edge that hopefully will push this system into clear profit. It will be only after a period of time that the stats. for the 3 min. favorite stats. can be compared with the SP favorite stats. you have supplied.

Leave out Melb.today I think, due to hurdle races.

I'll make Moonee Valley a r1 only bet win or lose, as r2 is a Hurdle.

Just found a very interesting stat ....

Why do favs win in early races .... Its becuase of the field size ...

Races 1- 4 have a larger proportion of smaller fields and therefore the strike rate of the fav increases in line with these proportions.

So really when you say more favs win in early races you are really saying more favs win in smaller fields which is just logical.

For example race 1 has three times more races with 7 or less runners than race 5.

Good Luck.

And the prices are pitiful as well compared to the later races,In general though FAV backers should go home after race 4 .

Cheers.
darky.

Wesmip,

Yes your right, but I'm well aware of that and I've already mentioned the smaller field sizes reason in an earlier post in this thread.

Oh and by the way, thanks for the stats. figures you supplied earlier that I accidentally attributed to Party. What figures are they from? Uni. Tab? Stab? or other?

Not all SP favorites are the same and their SR % and prices differ depending on source as shown within the first 2 races I bet on below.

I should also point out again that I'm not backing SP favorites [impossible], I'm backing 3 min to the jump favorites from UniTab Favorites, so your stats. just aren't relevant to what I'm doing [as I've already said in a previous post], but will be a great help for comparison in working out any edge above standard SP stats [if any and I believe there will be].

I'm betting them today [3 min to jump Unitab favorites] at $10 a pop for the win with Stab [better prices overall I think].

So Far:
MURTOA 01 at 10.56 AM SUPER VOBIS 3YO MDN PLT 1200M Jimoda 4.30w Stab [3.10 Unitab] Jimoda was 2nd fav. Stab and 1st fav Unitab at both 3min and the jump. Stab SP fav. was different from UniTab SP fav. too.

NEWCASTLE 01 at 11:00 AM RACING NSW FLOOD RELIEF MDN PLT 1850M Abra Ka Dabra 2.10w Stab [2.30 Unitab] 3 min. fav.and SP fav for both tabs.

Off to a good start anyway!