OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

3rd October 2007, 09:08 AM

crash

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Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

PUNTING TIP.

It works like this.
Supposing a roulette wheel had 49 Reds and 51 Blacks.
Suppose the house has 100 spins for today.
If the house pays even money on each colour, then the Punter wins $2 for every $100 invested if he only bets a dollar each spin on black.
The next day the same thing happens.100 spins.Another $2 is won for his $100.

100 spins yesterday and 100 spins today will equal 10,000 possible doubles combinations.
And the Punter would have got 2601 of them doubles.
And the house would have paid him 3 to 1 which amounts to $10,404 for an Investment of $10,000
The house lost $404 for every $10,000 bet by the punter.
OR, $4.04 for every $100 bet by the Punter.

JUST IMAGINE WHAT THE PUNTER WOULD HAVE OBTAINED IF HE WAS PLAYING QUADRELLAS.
Would it be 8% Profit or would it be 16%?
Whatever, it is no wonder that the PROFESSIONAL PUNTERS are doing well in the EXOTICS areas.

I think this is the post your replying too waggamick. It wasn't my analogy.

3rd October 2007, 09:57 AM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Waggamick, some good stuff there mate, but just one thing you say that I don't agree with, i.e. QUOTE: If odds are a reliable predictor then why is it that only one in three favourites salute?

Well, to me if 1 in 3 Favs. salutes and after adding back the bookies take out, the exercise returns close to break even or even a profit, so I reckon that is an incredible prediction almost spot on in fact?? i.e. on ave. if 1 in 3 of 2-1 shots win isn't that the perfect prediction?

3rd October 2007, 10:22 AM

darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline

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I recall Don Scott writing something in WINNING MORE about betting horses at 7/2 or thereabouts E/W.

Does anyone recall the actual wording?

Cheers.
darky.

3rd October 2007, 10:38 AM

moeee

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Pretty much in that the Bookmakers in their haste to lay these animals, tend to bet over the odds.
And If they are at close to their true odds, then a quarter the win price would be good value as well for the place.

3rd October 2007, 10:48 AM

darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline

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Thanks Mooee.

Wonder how many actually follow Dons advice here.?

Cheers.
darky.

3rd October 2007, 10:48 AM

Mark

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Location: Qld

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Darky, as far as I can remember he said that if you can get the best odds of every horse that starts between 1/1 - 7/2, then you need never do the form. Backing them e/w returns even more profit.

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