in post #6 i talked shortly about the layoff runners. but i was looking at it as maybe those horses were effected by the quarantines or something having to do with the outbreak in new south wales. caught a trend were these horses coming back fresh and winning against horses that were running all summer(your summer) or having 3 or more races. i was seeing horses that had great debuts being put aside and coming back and crushing. heard a track announcer that was wondering why a trainer had kept a horse away from the track for so long after a great debut. it was strange that he couldnt put things together.

really i just saw a trend and ran with it and it been successful so far.you guys are in australia maybe you guys can tweak it even more.im looking at a map to find out what tracks were affected in the area.

but im riding it till the end. where betting is concerned i dont bet with scared money. i have a good eye for physical appearance on horses,i look at the favorite and compare him to his previous runs and if i thin he/she will fail i unload from anywhere 1 to three horses to win. 1 horse ill go wp if he is big odds ill gow wps. if im betting two horses and one is a longshot ill go win on the non longshot and win/show on the longshot. i adjust accoring to the post time odds. sometimes it hurts me because here in the u.s. ill see horses drop from 9/1 to 5/2 after crossing the wire. just a gamble im will to take.

Dear PharFromOz,

I had a good look at you concept on Randwick today, new years day.

I'm pleased to say I didn't strike any winners (save one race with 4 runners) but I have a few reservations.

Firstly the odds of these runnes are quite long, and if one got up I'd have a strugle to recover... The other thing is that on Betfair its hard to get layed on a the lesser chances. The only way you can be sure to get a lay is to accept the sometimes outrageous odds on offer...

e.g. A runner could have a back price of $6 and a lay price of $25 +

How do you get around this problem?

Otherwise I think that with refinement it has real potential, but like i say, lookout for the long odds that get up.. There were a few today that got a place, so close is not good enough, but scary just the same..

I think its a stroke of genious, PharFromOz, all it needs is refinement and I'm sure I could automate it so that there is no need to pour over form to find the last starts etc. (of course you'd need acess to my 50k+ record database)

You're in my book as one thinking punter..

Keep up the good work.

And a happy and surely prosperous new year..

One obvious refinement, (before Crash chimes in) is that you dont have to bet on everything.. By being super selective you might get down to one bet a day or even every other day.. If you make it a reasonable sized bet you can see an meaningful return being reliased...

Happy new year EVERYBODY !

OzPunter

can the fresh horses do it tonight at musswellbrook?

just nailed the 2nd race.

had wins on #1 secret dane,#5 somemagic and #7 little topar.

#1 secret dane ran away at 9/1.

#5 somemagic- 4th
#7 little topar late scratch at gate

can someone tell me where stawell is located.

victoria

http://www.travelmate.com.au/mapmaker/mapmaker.asp

zoom out

thank you