Pengo

Thought we went through this y/day. Its an art, better done by those that only lay. Angry Pixie is a lay man. Search the posts for those that sound like they only lay & take notice. The rest (like me) are only good enough for the obvious lay advice and stating that your ideas of overall odds need work << which, as you still dont grasp is a a problem....for now.
For some more obvious advice i did notice yesterday you started raising your liability as you won. I think you started wanting to lose $80 then rose it by $6 every time you won. That's like staking but in reverse! i.e. you will always lose $80 every time your backer beats you doing that. Thats in punting 101 when your 8yo.
Pengo, when you learn to drive a car you learn in drive > think of drive as backing horses to win < as you get more confident you learn to reverse > think of reverse as laying < When you get older you may like to choose to drive for a living (pro punting OR i suppose a delivery driver so with practise and confidence you get a bigger license from the road authorities and thats your trade. You can either navigate the roads relatively risk free or you have your local tow truck mans number on speed dial.
My advice is:

A 17yo on his L plates just learning to drive cant reverse park a road train!!

Hi Pengo,
It is a very human initial reaction, when the idea of betting to lose comes up in conversation, but the reality is somewhat different.

Ask any of your friends if they are prepared to lay bet $10 on a 200/1 pop to lose, they will all say yes to the basic idea. Then tell them to keep in mind that if the thing happens to win, they are up for a liability payout of $2000, but if it falls over they get to profit the $10
Now watch their faces turn ashen white at the mere thought of it...funny ah!

Heres an exercise one may like to look at.
Pick a horse in every race that is $30 or slightly less.

One will find that one of these Donkeys will get up at least once in the next 30 bets.
If none get up within that 30 bets, one will probable see 2 of them get up in the next 30 bets.
It can be a very sobering exercise.

Go over vthe UniTAB results to see what I mean. These results can go back 2 years on this site.

If one wishes to do the lay thing with less liability, maybe have a look at place lay betting in races with 13+ runners.
You may discover that you have a gift for this.

I would strongly recommend to bet to price with a set liability.
e.g. Set Liability for each race could be say $20 = 1/20th of bank $400
Divide the horses fractional odds e.g. 10/1 into the $20 = $2 O/L
If the horse gets up to win , we lose $20
If horse falls over, we win $2
That's the harsh reality of lay betting.

Try & keep the same liability for each race on the day , because increasing the exposure, say half way through the day is financial suicide.
Set it up at the beginning of the day & dont change it until the next day up or down.

Maria's money management plan.
$1.00-3.50 = 1% bet of bank
$3.55-7.40 = 0.6%
$7.60-11.00 = 0.4%
Increase bank accordingly at the end of the day.
Decrease bet if bank drops by 35% at the end of the day.

Use the free Bet Trader Pro program to place bets under the Betfair min. of $6 a bet.
It also has a Dutch betting program in it for win & lay betting, you could use that.
What I do when using this program is enter 1/12th of bank into the square at the top . This equates to risking approx 1% of bank for each bet.

I feel one will have a greater chance of success & understanding of percentages, if one places their bets in this manner & less exposure to doing all their money very quickly, if a bad day should strike.

Good luck my friend.
Cheers.

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Cheers.

Yes, just like backing a horse to win you check its form same for the "loser". Tho the thing is the loser has more chance of losing since it only needs to be beaten by one other horse. Whereas the winner needs to beat by all the other horses. My logic is sound and will not be challenged !!! (/sarcasm).



As you just point out, you limit your liability so if that long shot comes in you don't lose your bank. Plus I wouldn't be staking 10 on the 200-1 long shot due to the eventuality that you have described. Instead I'd lay a horse that will allow me to limit my liablity to a predetermined amount. So that it doesn't destroy the bank if it gets up.

All I'm seeing here is naysayers, I guess we will see. Tho I appreciate the words of wisdom, if anything this just makes me want to succeed just that much more to show you it is possible.

How is giving over the odds not able to simulate a matched bet? It simulates it as a best as can be short of actually doing it. I'll look at the current back odds and give over that, so its more likely that it'll get matched. Also you can bring up what odds the horse has traded at and so I see what it has mostly gone for and give over that. So long as I make more than I lose its all good.

I still rekon lay betting is where its at, a horse only needs to place 2nd or worse and there are a lot more places for it to finish that will end up in a successful outcome for me, rather trying to finish in one particular place for a win bet. Basically, its harder to win a race than it is to lose it is my logic.

Also I'll be limiting my liability to no more than 100 units, so I will be set to a limited range of odds so I can stake 6. Once the bank builds, I'd use dutching to amplify my profits with limited liability. I won't be laying longshots (100-1), I'll be looking at the teens at most so that I am able to stake 6 units at whatever odds for the horse I have selected. The sweet spot from other threads says its 5-11.

I'm not expecting a 100% success rate but there is obviously a reason why the tote doesn't give a horse good odds. Sure they can get it wrong but the hope is that I'd make enough to cover the odd donkey getting up. Further you wouldn't lay purely on what the tote odds are, that only helps you to make a shortlist of selctions. Which just like any bet, you'd check its form and stats to come to a final decision.

I just think there is obviously money to be made and it seems this type of betting is more suited to my style. Also if there is no money to be made why are there bookies in the first place?

No skin off my nose if I get this wrong, I haven't risked anything other than my time.

No you won't be right 100% of the time, nobody is, BUT, you will need to be right 95% of the time simply to break even. Best of luck pengo.

Thanks, its just a bit of fun so I don't know what the big deal is if I get it wrong anyway

I've had my fun and learnt something in the process.

Pengo!

The original idea of this forum was that we share the little we know.
If you are hell bent on misinterpreting the advice as "knocking your idea" that's OK, but then why do you bother asking for comments on what you do?
Good luck

Pengo, yes it does seem like naysayer syndrome, but do you realise why everyone is jumping at you?
We have been there before and learnt the hard way.

As stated before Betfair favours backers, then you have commission.
It is extremely hard to win laying one horse per race, don't let anyone tell you it's easy.
It's easy to pick losers, it's not easy to lay them at a price that provides a profit.

For example, there is a more marked bias with longshots.
A horse at even money you might get matched at even money or $2.20, a horse at 150/1 I've seen at 500/1 or 1000/1.

You can win laying 150/1 shots at 150/1, probably up to 200/1, but you cannot win laying them at 500/1 or worse 1000/1.

I would suggest to anyone contemplating laying for profit to get the bookies prices on spreadsheet, add on the bookies overround to the prices, deduct commission, this is breakeven point, anything more is loss, anything less is profit. (overall)

You'll soon realise just how difficult it is.

For example again, I lay horses below TAB price and sometimes struggle to make a profit, imagine laying 20% above - no chance.

I won't go into how I do it, however, I can reveal that in almost every race
there will be a horse available to lay at below TAB odds, usually in the first four in the market.

I wish you well Pengo, truely, but it is just not as easy as it looks.

Browse the Betfair General Betting forum and you'll see how many people struggle and lose a lot of money in a short space of time, because they are laying over the odds.

It's really an ego thing, the layer thinks he can outsmart the market and pick the loser, he can, he just can't get the right price.

Imagine backing horses at 10% below TAB prices and trying to win, effectively that's what you are trying to do, but in reverse.

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I'm under the impression I win what I stake less commission, plus get back my liability. So if a horse loses, I'm ahead as I win my stake and it will b more than 0 regardless of commission. For arguments sake, I stake 6 with a liability of 100 so 106 is removed from my account. I win my lay and get paid 106~ (my 100 back plus 6 from the backer less commission).

Or am I missing something?

your are missing how it works mate,

the backer 'stakes' his $6
you are making liability of $100.

out of your account $100 WILL be taken

1. when the horse loses $106 goes back into your account.
the result = +$6 only. less commision

2. If the horse wins you get back nothing
the result -$100 (no commison as you werent the winner of the match)

so you either win $6 less commision or lose $100. theres no other result other then these 2

Umm isn't that what I said?