
12th April 2008, 08:26 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
I've never really given much thought to staking plans. However, let's look at the following scenario:
1 ) Bet the fave for $1.
2 ) After a loss increase the bet by $1
Assume there are 4 successive losers and the fifth fave wins paying $2.00. The outlay has then been a total of $15 ($1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). The return is $10 which is a loss of $5.
With level stakes the outlay has been $5 for a return of $2 which is a loss of $3.
The loss with the staking plan by my calcs is 33%, whilst the loss with level stakes is 60%.
Just a thought...
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I'm not trying to be contentious, but you might like to check out your maths 'conclusions'. It's easy to do, but you have tricked yourself into drawing wrong conclusions from unrelated percentages.
The two percentages are unrelated in any shape or form as the total amounts bet are very different. 60% represents a $3 loss on 5 bets. 33% represents a $5 loss from progressive bets. It's what the % means, not the size of it. Give me 10% of a $1000 over 50% of $100 any day. Just as I'd take a 60% loss on $5 rather than a 33% loss on $15 any day.
Last edited by crash : 12th April 2008 at 08:34 AM.
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