Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 15th April 2008, 10:54 AM
crash crash is offline
Suspended.
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Default

I know what Chrome was saying is correct:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
"Because you lose less betting on odds on favourites.
Longshots, you have to overcome 30% plus percentages against you versus 5% to 10% against."

But only as far as overall stats. go.

We don't bet 'overall', we bet 1 race at a time and in that situation, the percentages are meaningless, regardless of how many bets we have. Also, a $5 loss on an odds-on favorite is exactly the same $5 loss bet on any other runner. Every race bet is separate from any other bet. Their is no rule that says a longshot punter will lose more than an odds-on punter. It depends on the punter. If I back a horse at say $10, that's not because I think it is a 9/1 chance, it's because I think it's a 3/1 or 2/1 chance!

Last edited by crash : 15th April 2008 at 10:58 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 15th April 2008, 11:38 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rumply
Sorry Chrome Prince, have to disagree if your saying the reason to back shorties is because one 'loses less'?

One should take up another pastime if thats the logic they follow.


The logic is pretty logical actually, you have to find a 10% edge to make money as opposed to finding a 30%+ edge.
It's easier to find a smaller edge than a larger edge.

As crash says though, it's probably also easier to find a horse that is completely mispriced at longer odds.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 15th April 2008, 12:25 PM
crash crash is offline
Suspended.
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
The logic is pretty logical actually, you have to find a 10% edge to make money as opposed to finding a 30%+ edge.
It's easier to find a smaller edge than a larger edge.

As crash says though, it's probably also easier to find a horse that is completely mis priced at longer odds.


How do you measure 'edge' in a race [especially 10%] accurately? It's only opinion isn't it or is there a 'true odds' handbook each race day I don't know about?

As you said, I have no trouble finding plenty of horses I'd judge [ in my opinion] have 30%+ edge in their odds. I can be out quite a bit and still be mostly on overs, but 10%? $2.70 instead of $3?
Flip a coin, heads your overs, tails your unders. That's about as accurate as anyone will ever get in an individual race before it starts.

Last edited by crash : 15th April 2008 at 12:28 PM.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 12:29 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655