I had ago at it last night with $1 amounts and i can see how the stop loss works well, a few of the trades went against me and the stop loss reduced the loss to a few cents.

From what i can see it would be a tough way to make money but i guess nothing comes easy.

If your only interested in a few ticks profit, try placing your lay just before the jump, with a "keep in play" back a couple of ticks higher. A bit more risky, but unless the horse gets an absolute flying start, the natural ebb and flow of the in running market should see you matched. Don't get too greedy though. May not be the most prudent strategy on the fav - you'd have to pick your race there I think.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I have a new little strategy that takes the stress out of "trading".
I say "trading" because it's actually laying.

I have already half laid all UK markets now
So I'll share it.

It's complicated, but easy.

Lay your horse when the markets are out of whack early.
The average market I lay into is over 110% on the lay side.

If your horse drifts, bonus, you've laid to your advantage and probably well under the final Betfair price.

Here's the tricky bit...

If your horse firms, I have two ways of reducing the liability.
I try and lay it again after it's tumbled right in and then back it back higher(hedging after a rebound), the profit comes off the intitial liability.
Most often a horse will tumble in price, but at least rebound somewhat.
Should this all be matched, you've reduced the effective price you laid at originally.
The second part is to back it at the lower price and then lay it in running (keep bets) at $1.02.

Why $1.02?

Everyone is laying at $1.01, in the first UK race, there's already 50k waiting in the queue to be matched at that price with 6 hours to go, you'd be well at the back of the queue. But at $1.02, any trades at $1.01 have to buy your stake first. There's only 3.5k waiting at $1.02 and you are effectively at the front of the $1.01 queue.

Here's a real example:

Lay a horse @ $1.47 early to payout $30.

Scenario 1

It moves to $1.55, sweet!
You've laid it well under the Betfair price.

Scenario 2

It moves to $1.35, oh no!

Place a win bet @ $1.35 for half your lay stake.
In this case $10.20
Place a lay bet for $10.20 @ $1.02 and make sure it's keep bets in play.

Should the horse win, you've laid it at $1.31
Should the horse lose, you've laid it at $1.59 but for half the stake.

The important thing is that you are laying winners below the price, laying losers for half the stake, but also any drifters for full stake plus your price advantage.
More winners firm dramatically, so you are laying your winners for lower prices.
Combine this with betting back as the horses plunge and you're doing o.k.

I use the combo now.

__________________
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FOOTNOTE: for this to work, you must first trade the fluctuation to your advantage as the price plunges.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Shaun,
Its hard to get a true feel of the profit potential using $1
Try using min of $2
This allows the maths to do its thing.

Heres another approach that I have found to work well, on keep in running for UK races.

.Target the 3rd fav only. 1 min till jump

.Target 2000m+races
(200m = a furlong & 1600m = a mile)
These distances give plenty of time for the market to move up & down.

.Place Lay bet first .

.Then make a win bet at 2 ticks higher for in running.

The reason why this works very well is that 3rd Fav win stat is only 15%
Therefore the chance of getting matched is extreemly high.

The profit per tranaction is approx 5%

If one is using the Faibot program, there is a "Keep" in running button which saves a lot of hassel of having to go into the Betfair Options section & changing the Keep option after ones bet has been placed.

Keep option can only be done on UK & Sth African events.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hey mate,

I am playing with a few ideas, do you have a dutch lay formula for excel i want to test a few things with laying horses in the place market, i need to be able to return a set profit if just 1 runs a place.

Quite amazed nobody's commented or tried my approach.
Last night 20% POT
The night before 17.8% POT
The night before 15.6% POT
The previous night 26% POT
Last two weeks average 24% POT
Last month average 19.7% POT
Last six months average 22.4% POT

Hope someone can benefit from this info

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Well done Chrome, it looks like you have worked out a good angle that's paying good returns.

I have read the idea a number of times, but I am finding it difficult to get my brain around it.

Is the odjective to try & reduce the liability by half ?

Cheers.

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Cheers.

Hi Chrome,
I tried out the targeting the 3rd & 4th Fav betting the Blue side first at 1 tick higher than current price before placeing the Lay bet & it works a treat .

Less risky as well.

Thanks for that.

Cheers

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Chrome I was like Bhagwan didn't quite get it until I reread a few times.

Couple of Ques. 110% on the lay side, prices would have to come in to get close to 100% for the lay. (should that be back side)

Have you had any 1.02 in play matched lay's lose the race you would need approx. 1 in 50 to full over to get your money back.
Cheers
Off to work to get some money!! must be an ezy way