Actually I think Craig was not prepared for Sean to be so open, or is he always like that?

A very wasted opportunity imho, but a good interview all the same.

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I have sent an e-mail to the race club i suggest every one do the same, these so called singers that think they can personalise the anthem is just not on.

He reckoned it was over the odds. Said who? Bookies ride in rollers because of short priced 'over the odds' [they think] horses mugs bet on. $100k down the drain. Nobody but nobody can decide that a short priced horse is 'over the odds'. Look at todays results for odds-on horses all states. Most of them lost.

He didn't say it would win, he said it was over the odds.

So if all odds on favourites won today, one would assume you'd endorse backing them?

One day does not a summer make.

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If he backed it at $2.70 he lost nothing, see what prices was on offer, he would have been laying it off on his bookie site for sure.

Yes, as he stated it was over the odds and he had a bet to nothing.
That's smart punting.

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No I wouldn't. The average SR for odds-on horses winning is around 50%. Runs of in's or outs for odds-on horses doesn't make any difference. Good for arbitrage betting maybe, but hardly a good profit making target by guessing if odds-on runners are overs or unders. LOL. LOL.

Looking at odds of say 2.70 [Bartholomew's bet odds for his $100k], when
converted to book % we are talking tiny %. To be able to say 2% chance of winning is about right but 3% is overs, is absurd. There will never be enough info available about a field of horses, or how a race will pan out in the running to calculate such tiny chance differences. It's an educated guess at best surely.

I think when Bartholomew says a horse is unders or overs he's talking about what odds he can bet at compared to what odds he can lay for. By his own admission in the interview he's no form student, but investor [an abridger]. Great if you have enough capital to make the small % profits meaningful. He said he went broke 50 times as a semi-pro punter until he gave it up and went into backing and laying when he was a small time bookmaker for a short period.

If their is a good profit potential through his arbitrage betting style, he can then calculate a horse's 'overs' or vis-a-vis 'unders' very accurately, but he's using those terms loosely for convenience, not in their accepted meaning to most punters.

Cheers.

You don't need to guess, it's right there before us all.
The percentage book has not a lot to do with it.
At 100% market a horse can move as much as 20% without the market percentage actually changing.

Bookies do it everyday

For me it is dead easy to spot value on short horses, there are so many question marks on the others.

Apply one or two filters to these animals and you have a profit at tote prices, best tote or betfair returns close to 10% without raising a sweat.

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I agree with what your saying Chrome, but a horse's chances of winning is not decided by price moves, if they did denote winning chance %, all favorites would win, but 7 out of 10 don't. Why? Because of all the unknown factors involved.

Personally, I believe the way to profit is arbitrage betting [isn't that what you do?], but for most punter's with small banks, they would probably keel over from boredom using that betting style unless they were into accounting as well as their interest in horse racing [nothing wrong with that] and sure, that's what bookies do, but not punters.

For most punters the challenge and excitement is beating the bookie and the odd big win, even though the bookies will mostly win in the end.

Punting and arbitrage are two different animals serving two different endeavors.

My 2 cents... A Fav. who has drifted in the market statistically lose more than those who firm.

The average SR for odds-on horses winning is around 50% small lose, but if you backed them at over the odds like he did 2.70 you would win, if he couldn't get that price (or one he thought was VALUE) then no bet. That is how he bets. In the interview he said he would keep backing a horse till it came down to certain price.

He works on small % on large turnover, that is why he said the average punter cann't win on betfair paying 5% Comm. (don't agree) thats the bookie coming out in him.

Agree with you about arbitrage betting, just need two big banks

Cheers