13:53 tow R02 # 7 Vulcan
Q100 rater showing steady improvement on the graphs. Rank4 and IV's in it's favor, a good s/r at this distance and overall. Excellent jockey and trainer. Will start short but value at $2.00 or more. Yes $2.00

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Permanence is an illusion

Thanks for the tip Stebbo, he does look a particularly good thing, winning & running 2nd with 60+kg, meets an average lot at WFA, draws 2 and leads making his own luck. Taking the shorts won't worry me either

Didn't give a yelp, that's racing

I'm not saying an evens bet is a bad bet, but I think 'value at $2' becomes a very subjective measurement. Requires a 50% win SR just to break even. Out of curiosity, at what win SR % does that bet price become value [very worthwhile] and how realistically achievable is it?

All value is subjective. 'Value at $2.00' is no more subjective than 'Value at $5.00'.


Greater than 50%.

The point is somewhat moot as at $1.60 this was not a bet for me.

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Permanence is an illusion

I agree.

Ironically, your winners were the ones above $3 [uni-tab]
15:53 str R07 # 1 Token Promise 10/9 3.00 [sp 6.30] won
13:50 wag R02 # 3 Miramar 8/9 3.00 [sp 3.40] won
with the only shorty 12:50 ips R01 # 4 Spanish Fling 11/9 2.20 [sp fav. 2.40] won.

Considering there were only 3 bets backable above your 'value' amount for 3 wins [I think] and the other bets were below the amounts you put on them [mostly odds-on], that's nice going.

15:05 bep R01 # 6 Outside Influence
Has been running in higher grade than this mostly. Q100, Rank4 with all IV’s in it’s favor. Good jockey and trainer stats. Has shown improvement at both it’s runs this prep and is well down in this. Should figure in the finish. Rated $4.80 in the paper can’t see it starting anywhere near that. Will be value at $2.80 or above. Yes $2.80.

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Permanence is an illusion

Hey Crash

...... back before computers, did you used to go through a lot of white-out?

Stix

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

I was so poor back then I started using it as milk whitener. In fact I'm still using it. Apart from it's addictive properties, something in it might have had a negative effect, as I do have some weird growths and some very worrying thoughts!

Was just wondering....not for the addictive slant, but you seem to edit every post....there is a "Preview Post" button you know......just trying to help an elderly citizen across the technological road

(No offence intended, just my stoopid humour (and caring side) on show )

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!