Don't know about anyone else, but if I could get MY Ratings to consistently show a Profit, I'm sure I wouldn't make them publicly available.
What would be the Point?

If you want Ratings that DO make a Profit, then you shall have to purchase them.
But funny how so many Ratings are about from various places, but i don't recall anyone stating that their ratings make a Profit on a Flat Staking Investment.
Perhaps Punters Choice has that Information.
But then you would need to Purchase that I guess.

The Market that the Animals start at is pretty much a consensus of all methods and ratings that are around, and as soon as a Selection method becomes available that does better than the others, the Market soon reflects the Method and those selections start shorter and eventually begin paying the 15% or so less than what they should.

HUH???

That's like saying the favourite shouldn't have been the favourite because it didn't win the race. Want to expand on that a little? You're not suggesting that the top rater should win every race are you??

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

EXACTLY!

If the Favourite had every opportunity to win the Race, and didn't, then surely it shouldn't have been Favourite.
Surely the Caulfield Cup Winner shouldn't have been 50 to 1.
Any Winner should never have been a 50 to 1 Chance.

The TOP Rater should run like a top Rater.
If it don't, then the Race needs to be analysed afterr the event to find out why it didn't perform.
But as Punters we like to spend our time trying to predict winners of future races and nowhere near enough time is spent looking at previous Races.

Those that have videotapes of previous Races are the Punters who have the opportunity of finding those animals who are way over the odds, regardless of whether they are top Raters or not.

With all due respect moeee, the BEST horse does not win every race. And conversely, the winner of the race is not the best horse in the race just because it won.

A true 50% chance will win every second race. It can be the 'best' horse in both races, but as a true 50% chance it will only win one. Just because it's beaten on the day by a rank outsider (who manages to win it's first race after 50 starts and is paying it's correct $50) does not mean that the $2 is no longer the best horse in the race, nor that $2 was not the correct price for that horse.

Cheers,
Chris.

__________________
Permanence is an illusion

I can't see the odds changing for a coinflip because heads came up.

__________________
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Some of this sounds like manufactured 'special pleading', especially when we start talking about 'correctly' rating a horse and recognising overlays[?]. We win only if we correctly pick the winner regardless of ratings or overlays. Any mechanical 'science' of picking winners requires 'all' facts to be known and that will never be possible in this game. Art and intuition plays a big roll in picking winners. There will never be a mechanical science of picking winners as horses and Jockeys aren't machines and many unknown variables decide a winner more often than not.

I picked up a 15/1 shot today (Kyneton r5/5 SUPERIOR SHADOW 16.60w Stab) and my decision to back it had nothing to do with science, ratings or perceived overlay, just good old form study and a bit of art and intuition.

With all due respect Stebbo, I never said the BEST horse wins every Race.
And the TOP Rater is not necessarily the BEST Horse in the race.
But the Top Rater should have run very close to winning the Race.
If it didn't, then there must have been an excuse, or the Ratings are Crap.

I rated a Race today and my TOP Rater ran Last, and my 2nd Rated ran unplaced.
They both began well and bumped into each other putting one of them out of the Race.The other may have worked too hard early.
The winner wasn't Rated a Chance.
Obviously the winner was capable of winning the Race, and I didn't expect it to perform at its Peak today.

And this is where most selection services go wrong.
Predicting whether an animal will perform at its Peak Ability today , or like in the Caulfield Cup, where the Top Raters didn't , for reasons that are obvious now.