Efficient and All The Good are out of the Cup.

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For the form student and from a good site :

History over the last 17 years shows that the Melbourne Cup winner is:

1. Is highly likely to start at less than 20/1 in bookmaker markets

2. Will be coming off a top last start performance, either winning or finishing very close to the winner.

3. Has time ratings [110 or better] in one of their last two starts that demonstrate the ability to run fast overall time.

4. Can be drawn wide.

These simple rules should narrow it down to 3 - 5 good prospects.

Thanks Chrome.

I agree pity poor form wasnt it.

I remember Warren Block telling me that GOOD form =

1000 - 1600 = Won or ran with 2 lengths of the winner

1650 - 3200 = Won or ran within 3 Lengths of the winner,.

Sound advice I believe.

By the way Neil gave me some very sound advice that I am going to adhere too and for which I am very much appreciative.

Cheers.
Darky.

My system which has picked the last 8 winners out of the last 9 Melbourne Cups as follows.

Mad Rush
Nom Du Jeu
Zipping
Barbaricus
Bauer
Moatize
Gallopin
Zarita

So that's a third of the field.

I don't think Zipping can win, but he can certainly run a place.
I'm very confident about the chances of Bauer.

I think the winner will probably come from Bauer, Nom Du Jeu or Mad Rush.
Barbaricus can run into the placings.

I'll be betting for the win on Bauer, Nom Du Jeu and Mad rush and taking them each with the other 7 qualifiers in quinellas.

So the quinella outlay will be 21 units.

Go Bauer

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Id be interested to hear how you can rule out zipping...

Zipping for the place is a good bet. He's so good at it [1 win in 2yrs].

Zipping is just one of those horses who's handy but never actually delivers what's needed to get to the next level.
How many times are punters going to bet this horse short before they realise?
At 36/1 I'd give him a bet, at 18/1 they can have it.

Zipping is a consistent horse though, he's just definitely not a Cup winner.
Horses that go around short in lower grade races too many times and fail to win, don't win Melbourne Cups.

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Yep, good points.

I wouldnt be too quick to draw the line through it though, given the following:

* 4th Last year in the cup
* Great run in the Turnbull
* Great run in the Cox Plate.

I agree though, that some horses just dont know how to win..

Chrome, I'm amazed that you left out Septimus there?? surely it's 1 or 8 to win from 1,5,8

With a time rating of 130, Septimus has got to go in as a top chance. Though I wish it had a local Jock!

Gallopin: No hope of running the distance at a genuine pace. It was running on empty winning a jog and sprint last start.

Moatize: Ditto

Bauer: Beat a bunch of walkers at Geelong

Zipping: Give me a break!

My tips:
1. Nom Du Jeu
2. Septimus
3. Mad Rush
4. Honolulu
5. Barbaricus