A question for Thorns.

I've played around with similar systems to what your saying, backing around the fav, when the fav is say in that $3-$4 range. It's very much like a plan in one of those books, which I dont think I can mention on here. Plan A,...or Plan B,..or somethingorother. You back the next 2 or 3 in the market and then apply a sort of target betting scheme.

You were saying you might apply a divisor betting plan to this, you dont happen to have a spreadsheet for working this out,..??

Paul

I do actually, its a pretty simple one, but works for me.

Set your target, and start divisor. Enter your effective win dividend in the Win Divi column (ie if you backed 3 horses, and one won at $6, your win divi is only $2). You then have to manually adjust your divisor after wins/losing runs.

Then there is the option to record the results of "series" as well, to keep track of your results.

Hope this helps.

Okay, because I use open Office, it doesnt allow that sort of file type.
Anybody got a suggestion?

here you go, got it to work. Hope it helps.

Attached Files

DIVISOR.xls (30.5 KB, 411 views)

Out of curiousity I set some rules which are:

1 ) Max of 11 starters.
2 ) Min price of fave $3.10 in the pre-post market.
3 ) Any of the first three faves not to be scratched.

Yesterday was not a good day but the loss was less if no rules were set. I couldn't check Rocky because the Tele did not have a pre-post market. From the two remaining venues there were 9 qualifying races where only one race paid more than the number of runners according to Unitab divvies.

There was only one qualifying race on Monday. It had 9 runners, the winner paid $36.10 on Unitab. Interestingly, the total outlay at level stakes has been $67 for a return on Unitab of $66.10.

If anyone's interested, today's qualifying races in race order are:

Bendigo R3
Bendigo R5
Ascot R1
Dombeen R4
Canterbury R5
Gawler R6
Dombeen R7
Bendigo R10

We'll see how they go...

I have used that idea Paul, & it can work very well.

. Target races with 11 runners & less.

.Target the 2nd,3rd & 4th Fav

.Bet 3+3+2 = 8 units on each race.

.That's 37.5% + 37.5% + 25% of ones total race bet unit.

.The SR is 43%

.It comes out at just break even at level stakes over 100 races which is stronger than just betting the Fav on its own .

Using Betfair the bets are placed 1-2 min from jump time.

Because it breaks even, one can introduce a staking plan.

Keep in mind one will see odd runs of say 10 outs when the Favs decide to get up all day, so be prepared.

The run of outs are greatly reduced if one targets Hcp races only , for some reason the Favs don't seem to dominate as much & this includes races where there are odds on favs.

Staking plans can work well if there is a break even situation of its selections at level stakes.

If the maths stats are correct , the chance of 30% chance Favs getting up in 8 races in a row is .0065%
.30x.30x.30x.30x.30x.30x.30x.30 = .0000656 x 100 = .0065%

or 100 / .0065 = 15384.6 / 100 = 154

1 chance in 154 races.

If that is correct , how come it seems to happen so often?

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Slightly off topic but along the same lines, IAS used to offer 1/1 Fav against field or visa versa, not sure if they still do but if so it's an alternative.

Hi Michael
Heres an idea that can work well on its day with half the O/L of your example.

Use some of your exsisting rules
. 11 runners or less

. Must have a $3.10+Fav in pre-post

.Divide the field size by 2 rounded up
e.g. 11 / 2 = 6

.What ever that figure comes to, that's how many horses we target using the pre-post market for the selections in name order as they appear in
pre post market.
e.g. Target the first 6 horses from a field of 11 in the pre post market.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Good idea, Bhagwan.

If I can devise a suitable (in my opinion) staking plan I'll give it a go today.

If I do, I'll post the results tomorrow.

Michael.

Hey Party, they used to offer $1.50 some times a bit higher for the field but they stopped it a few years ago unless they started it again might be worth an e-mail to them.

Bhagwan, I bet the method today. I halved my friend's loss-chasing stakes because I was only backing half the field.

There were 17 races, and the winner was struck in 16 of them. My profit was 7.6 units.

However, if I had layed every selection at level stakes then the profit would have been close to 20 units.

It's interesting that backing them using the stakings plan produced a profit and laying the very same horses at level stakes also produced a profit.

Tomorrow I'll list the selections here.