Yep, less than 2 legths from winner etc are over cooked by the average punter/tipster

I did post the stats last night, but then thought again about it and removed them (not sure why, maybe this website has jaded me), but will say that a very large % all winners (all ages, All Metro tracks, all track conditions, all states) finished better than 5th at their second last start......

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Stix,

Thanks for that, and I can understand 'jaded'. If you search my nom de plume you'll see I have offered some friendly advice and stats previously, without giving away the whole box and dice so to speak.

Your point of a very high percentage of winners finishing better than fifth at its second last start has strong resonance with my emerging method.

Thanks for your assistance.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

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Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

Got an email address, I'll send the info through.

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Stix,

Very generous of you...

Thanks in advance.

luckyboypunts(at)yahoo(dot)com(dot)au


Cheers,
Luckyboy

__________________
Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

Have sent email....

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Hi Stix,

I have tried a couple of times to send you an email in response to your question, but it has bounced back.

Sorry for the time in responding, but I only check that email address, knowing something has been sent.

Anyway to answer your question. No I don't have the contact details for the person you seek.

And also, the little system I was working on that you helped me out with is bubbling along okay. Another three months and we might be cooking...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

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Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

Just out of curiosity I had a quick look at three random Saturday's racing. What I found was that 50-60% of the winners had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start. That sounds great, but then I went through and counted up all the horses that had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start, which ended up being between 50-60%. With all due respect, isn't it a bit like saying that a very large % of all winners have four legs, and trying to build a system around it? Or did I randomly choose 3 bad Saturdays to look at? Please understand that I'm not questioning your statistic. I'm questioning whether it is a statistic worthy of incorporating into a selection method, given the similar ratios of winners to the field.

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...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas

All I can say is it is something that has been thrown up and I continue to use it..... I look at inform 3-4 yo's not rising in weight by more than 1.5kgs.......this is basis for all my selections. Obviously other rules are used........all the best S&S.

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

I think what Stix is saying is useful, but could be refined a bit more maybe. From those horses that had finished between 1st and 4th at their 2nd last start [which ended up being between 50-60% according to Silver_and_sand's figures], if we check the race times of those 2nd last starts [and why not last starts too?] and ignore the horses that were in slow races, that 50-60% would probably narrow down to about 10%. Now that would be meaningful.

Totally agree Crash.

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!