just putting in my two bobs worth I dont think the raiders will run a drum unless it pours so dont waste your hard earned cash rain guage for mine.

You know, it's a funny thing pharlap, a mate of mine is also hot on Rain Gauge. I don't doubt him, he ran well last year , and fantastic last start. Just don't think he can win! Just think he is the best, along with Grey Song, of an ordinary bunch of Ossie competitors this year. I don't want these raiders to take our cup, as much as you don't. But I don't think our horses are as tough this year. I love Rain Gauge, but he's the best we got! We will probably put him in our top 5 for the first four, but I would prefer Grey Song. Still, it is not only up to me. I do have to respect my fellow punters. Love the way he came home in the Caulfield Cup though.

respect your fellow punters its there cash and all the mug punters on cup day we are trying to beat for profit especially in the exotic bets cheers.

Distinctly Secret appeals to me as the best hope of the Aussies. Should have been right in the finish of the Caulfield Cup if it wasn't for having a run closed between horses...and still only finished a length away from Northerly.

I will be watching him very closely in the Mackinnon on Saturday.

In saying that, the Melbourne Cup is always a poor betting race for punters...it's hard enough to line up form and obtain value in our normal races let alone one with so many uncertain variables.

Punting is about making money...cold and calculated decision making. If this race wasn't the Melbourne Cup, you have to ask yourself if you would even consider having a bet? 24 runners over 3200m, many untried at the distance, all the favoured runners are imports that historically have a very poor record.

Isn't it ironic that the largest tote pools of the year exist on the race where it is hardest to pick the winner?

If you must have a bet, I would suggest you try and strike an exotic...the pools will be full on mugs money, punters who have taken simple box trifectas and quinellas...mystery bets etc. etc. That is where the best opportunity for value lies.

Frankie wasn't on the 2nd horse last year.

:smile:

A question for my learned friends:

What was the last horse to win a Melbourne Cup having previously started but not won?

The Barb ?

That's right Mark. Frankie was on the second placegetter in 1999, Central Park @ 50/1. Richard Hills road Give The Slip last year @ 30/1. This year Dettori is on Pugin, and Hills is on Hatha Anna. Since both hoops rated their earlier mounts so well, we of course will only get a fraction of those odds. It's interesting to note that Pugin is a bold frontrunner. So, given that he draws reasonable, I suggest we can expect the pace on from the start to finish. Should make for a true staying contest. I think another interesting fact regarding the overseas bred horses is their record thus far. As has been mentioned by a lot of posters, most are full of hype, and run disappointing races. That is very true. But there is usually 1 or 2 of them that do run well, and I guess our task is to work out which ones they are this year. Results for the last 12 years for overseas bred horses, excluding the Kiwi's are:

2001 2ND GIVE THE SLIP (ENG)
2000 5TH ARCTIC OWL (ENG)
1999 2ND CENTRAL PARK (ENG)
1998 3RD PERSIAN PUNCH (ENG)
1997 4TH HARBOUR DUES (ENG)
1996 7TH GREY SHOT (ENG)
1995 3RD VINTAGE CROP (IRE)
1994 1ST JEUNE (GB)
1993 1ST VINTAGE CROP (IRE)
1992 NO STARTERS
1991 5TH IVORY WAY (USA)
1990 1ST KINGSTON RULE (USA)
1989 3RD KUDZ (USA)

I agree with you osulldj. The only chance to make decent money in this race is via the multiples, especially the NSW First Four.