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#11
23rd March 2009, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
Hi Paul, I'm quite surprised by your results. It suggests that all your profit comes from one or two longer priced collects. So rather than a steady upward trend, you are on a steady downward trend but the longer priced selections bounce you well above profit. Would this be correct, as it seems the only explanation for the percentage of bank results, especially as you'd lose your bank betting just 5%. FWIW I'd recommend 1% or 2% of betting bank. I use 10% of betting bank, but only because my strike rate is very high. Over 70%
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#12
23rd March 2009, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
If you have a high strike rate (like Chromes 70% above) then using 0.5% is way too "safe". However if you have a long-shot theory than 0.5% could be quite valid. One thing I also like to do is define reduction levels to build some protection into the profits. Eg. if I start betting 3% of $500 I may choose to reduce the stake by 0.1% everytime my bank moves up by 500.It ends up with something like this.... Bank and % 500 - 3% 1000 - 2.9% 1500 - 2.8% 2000 - 2.7% 2500 - 2.6% 3000 - 2.5% etc All the way down to whatever level you feel comfortable at. Some punters dont like this and I certainly dont use it for every system, but it does offer some "protection" for your profits against the expected long run of losers and still builds the bank nicely when performing well.
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#13
23rd March 2009, 05:16 PM
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thanks Chrome and Goty, I am glad this has generated some discussion and it is good to get everyones opinion on this. It's something I have thought long and hard about for some time now.
By the way after I left that post this morning I re run my figures with a 2% bet and I think it was around the 22% POT mark. And Chrome, looking through my winners the best in this period was Reward for Effort paying $16 when it won the BD. (I got short changed there using IAS top fluc as it paid up around the 25/1 on totes, oh well). I've had a few around the $10 mark, then more around the $4 - $7 mark and the usual shorties. I have to ask though, how on earth do you get a strike rate of 70%,..phewww, with just one selection per race..?? Good on you anyway, if you can achieve this. What sort of POT does this give you. Paul
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#14
23rd March 2009, 05:31 PM
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70% strike rate for horses opening less than $1.55 in the UK and taking Betfair SP.
POT 20% pre commission. Favourites in the UK win up to 40% of races because of the structure of racing. Usually there are only one or two horses in a big field with a generally realistic chance of winning. The POT arrives because the horses are rated much more accurately by the bookies, but Betfair markets mean that the price is forced up. If you back every odds on favourite at Betfair SP you break even before commission. Horses less than $1.55 get forced up, over $1.55 get forced down a little. So you can back the real shorties and lay the higher shorties, as the openers are a very accurate rating in themselves.
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#16
23rd March 2009, 06:44 PM
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I Find Ladbrokes to be the best, they aren't the earliest, but seem to be the most reliable.
You can also change to decimal odds to make it easier.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 422,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#17
24th March 2009, 11:39 AM
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Hi Chrome and very interesting, you have me intrigued here. A couple of silly questions here as I am not a Betfair person. These horses that open at less than $1.55, can you back them early or do you need to be sitting at your computer at jump time. It is our bedtime when its afternoon in the UK. And I guess your profit margins are very slim in some cases, meaning to win 20% on turnover with a strike rate of 70% you would have to be getting at least $1.75 on every one of your 7 winners from 10 bets. Not sure what the commission is that you then lose.
I'll check this Ladbrokes site out, just for a sticky, all very interesting stuff here. Paul
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#18
24th March 2009, 12:15 PM
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Paul, you can set your bets at Betfair SP well in advance, you don't need to sit by the computer.
You check the openers, set the bets, get what you get and wake up with profit. Well, not quite that easy, but that's the idea. A very sad development is that Betfair are restricted from offering SP on Aussie races for the foreseeable future  A product I used intently. Alas no more.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 422,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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