This is my plan for my early retirement, any and all advice is welcome.

First I split my bank in two, reserve and active.
The size of each bet is 5% of the active bank (2.5% of total bank)
Stop betting after 20% POT.
Find 1 stand out horse from ALL venues, thats paying $1.20 for the place.
This will double my active bank in 100 days.
When the horse fails to place, I have a few choices:
1. take the loss and carry on.
2. same bet 5% with the horse paying $1.40
3. same bet 5% for the WIN.
4 double the bet 10% to place at $1.20
If 2nd horse fails, the I'll start from the start.

I would like your advice, not just on the above, but punting in general.
I don't want your hard earned secerets or private systems. Just a bit of helpful advice.
Thank you all,
Mike.
P.S
If you want to email its mjm367 at gmail dot com
Mike.

G'day Mike,
All the best with your plan as any serious punters definitely need a "business" plan.
The only problem is that if a runner is showing $1.40 for the place this can shrink dramatically as the late money comes in. It is quite common knowledge that the bulk of money is invested in the last five minutes prior to race-start.
Also, could I recommend that you include in your plan to increase the unit value of your investments each time you win 100 units or similar.
Therefore you will have control over your betting bank and are not chasing losses which is the downfall of many punters.
Good luck to you.

Cheers.

gday mike, at $1.20 you will need to maintain an almost impossibly high strike rate to make it all worthwhile, so my only concern would be how you will 'Find 1 stand out horse from ALL venues'?

to do that is not an easy exercise in my experience, even before bringing to account elements such bad luck in running, poor/dodgy ride by the pygmy, etc etc

Yeah have to agree with the above. You might want to aim for horses paying a bit more. There is nothing more frustrating than for example getting 8 places in a row, only for two missess ti put you back to square one. Im sure it can be done, but I would rather target horses a bit longer. Myself, I wont back a horse if its showing under $1.70 before jump. This allows for a late crunch, and still should hopefuly show an alright price.

I guess if you are set in your ways of finding a $1.20 shot to back, you will want to be able to monitor all totes, and try and get teh best price. Even if you can 10 cents better each time it could be the difference between winning and loosing.

Mike,

Have a look at a thread from last Oct. -- a lot of relevance, I think

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=18101

I like your optimism Mike, but I wouldn't be planning on early retirement yet!
When I first started betting on the horses [40yrs ago], I worked out that all I had to do to get from struggle st. to easy st. was to back favorites for the place [why hadn't anyone else thought of such a plan? LOL].

AS Xanadu and Thorns have pointed out, TAB SP prices [especially for the place] cannot be known until after the jump, so you can never be certain what price you are accepting.

Theoretically, even if you did manage to get an average price of $1.20p per bet, you'd need a better than 80% SR just to break even and maintaining even that would be impossible, let alone trying to produce a profit.

All said and done, a better proposition for you might be aiming for one winner from 4 bets [25% SR] at an average price of $5w. If you were consistent enough you could make a profit. No easy task but with careful race selection, it's at least not impossible and worth aiming for.

Good luck whichever way you bet.

Mike you'd need to land close to 90% of the $1.20 shots to make it workwhile.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash