Crash,

Ladiesinluck, a known slow starter and comes from behind is its normal pattern. Got barrier one. 14 horses. But it jumped out quickly and was on pace. It won.

Now I would be interested in your prognosis.

The trainer said he raced the horse up front because it had barrier one and he thought it was up to racing on pace. Toss the map out the window on that one.

My feeling is that because it wasn't a favorite that helped. It didn't get away that quickly (but quick enough) and jockeys had their eyes on other threats. Had it been a $3.00 favorite some other horses would have been in there trying to bottle it up.

And in race 8 we had the slower starting favorite Memorise in barrier one and I believe it did get headed up an stuck for a run. Is that right? If so, it would be interesting.

You have now mentioned 2 of my Sat. winners so far, so before you mention any more there was also: Flem. r4 Testaguy and Wildwind Spirit in r4 at Hawksbury. A very good day with nice odds from 4 wins in 6 bets.

Ladies in luck's race wasn't easy because there was no leaders in the race and Phaze Action [likes it wet and a ridiculous favorite after a soft win in the heavy last start] was the only on-pacer.
Ladies in luck had run very good times in 4 straight starts at Flemington last prep. All the races were 100k and 1 was 150k. and all those starts had very good times.
Looking at the turn positions of the horse in the last 10 starts shows a flexibility in running style when needed. Mostly it runs from close to the back but also can run a good race from a more forward position. Parky was on the ball at the start and was able to avoid getting boxed in as many tipsters predicted from B1. At the odds I took a punt.
None of the horses in this race had good times last start [except Elmore's last start at Sandown] and most wins were soft ones. Ladies in Luck's odds were way overs too in my opinion. So the map did not need tossing out, just looked at carefully.

There is a reason I mentioned them. They were the two I could not get out of mind that I did not finally select. LOL

I can really see someone picking ladiesinluck. It was in my 3. My top pick Grand Destiny I felt was just plain unreliable. ladiesinluck has been up so long now I was frightened this race would be the one it drops its bundle.

But really, I suppose a speed map doesn't mean much with those draughthorses. The same goes for Memorize in barrier 1 in R8. It had nothing next to it smart enough that would have boxed it in. Yet it did get boxed in.... but had plenty of open road in the straight - more than enough - for a chance. It was not good enough. Could not understand why it was favorite.

I had two bets for two losers. I didn't like either of them, but I liked the others I picked even worse. Tempest Toast I got at $4. Diamondsonthe inside at $3.80. Bummer.

I couldn't work out why Memorise started favorite either. I had a good look at it and wasn't impressed for that race. The horse had never won beyond 1600m and an ideal barrier for a mid-pacer to get boxed in from is B1, especially if they are the favorite. Personally I like mid-pacers drawn out a bit in a more flexible position. Also, Memorise has had only 1 win from 8 starts compared to Zupacool who had 3 wins from 8 starts, had been running good times and had won at the distance at it's only try too. Good enough to back at the odds I thought.

Ya gotta love false favorites!

Yes well, that is on topic, isn't it?

Rating Horses on their Past Results

Zupacool had a much better history than Memorize. And so too Ladies In Luck as opposed to Grand Destiny, if you exclude its longshot 30-1 wins.




False Favorites?!

Now that would be a good topic: Factors to look for in identifying false favorites.

Track down the false favorites. One of the easier ways to assure overs.

I'm always looking for winners and sometimes my instincts say "false favorite!"

And a few times I have been the victim of one.

I should set out a set of criteria for false favorites

Good idea Brendon. A new thread perhaps?