You have a valid point there Stix. I think than in my post I was oversimplifying the point about acceptable price regarding SR.
Put another way, in the long run if we add up all our winning bet prices [from shorties to long-shots] and work out their average price and find we have lost for the period, then the prices we are taking must be improved in some areas, or alternately, our SR must be improved if we wish to make a profit. Naturally, as you have pointed out, our shorter priced winners will get up more than our long-shots. Getting the price balance right is the important thing. Looking at the performance of our 'price bands', will soon tell us where we need better prices.

We also have the option of ignoring a race if we feel the price on our selection is too low. Although we might be sure the selection will win, often it won't! We don't have to bet a selection regardless of price just because we think it will win. We can move on.

I ignore heaps of horses that I consider at a poor price and unless their is another horse in the race at good odds that I think has a better chance of winning than it's odds suggest. Some will lose but also some will win. Ditto a shortie I liked but ignored because below a certain price, not enough of them get up for me, to be profitable. Ditto above a certain price [unless I've spotted something, which doesn't happen that often].

Between $4 and $9 is my personal comfort zone and ironically, the higher odds winners [a bit less of them of course] are returning more profit than my shorter priced ones. That's my personal experience anyway. For other punters it might be the other way around.

For me, i guess value can also be a bit systematic, i have it priced at $4.00 (3-1) , but its showing 3.90, so i cant back it, unders? but if its 4.10 i can back it, overs? ..if you decisions come down to 10 or 20 cents, umaahhh your in trouble.
So basically then it depends , if you took the early price or missed the boat. oh...real world
my top selection $4, i see 3.90, i hope it will move out a bit, from the bird cage hes tipped it, and its an O'shea horse, so now the stable has hit the ring, now its 3.50 .... 3.00..the tote $2.50 ..wins with a leg in the air, like those good things do.....
next race, can you belive it ..same thing , top rated $4, it shows 3.90, it O'shea horse, while typing this its now moved now to $4, we'll take it, from the board cage hes tiped it second, but now its 4.50 ...sp was $5.50, it ran 3rd.
your down say $25, really you should be a little in front,..how much is depending ,if you took fixed or tote...or square if your busy watching the fashions on the field.
perhaps one example , said you are on the right track, the other said you maybe mistaken....

My markets are far better than than yours, BUT his is far better than mine and the other guys are even better, BUT the odd set early on, made by the head hcp'er in the NT, seconded by his back up,confirmed by their video watcher...are now being confirmed by the stable ..........but.. i ,we, you , know better and so much more?

One can see from that good example , that it is a strong idea to treat value in general terms.

Its easy to get too caught up in analysis paralysis.

Try not to beat ourselves up to much if we miss a collect.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

You're right Maurice, it's a tough one, a judgement call. How confident are you in the prices you have?

I remember a chap in the West who had a pricing service, and he would put up his working sheet on his website the Monday after the races. He axiom was to never accept unders no matter what, and his worksheet showed he never budged from that. It was fractional odds then, but as an example, if he rated something 9/4 he wouldn't touch it at 2/1. So he'd then stand it out in Trifectas, multiples etc. because better value would be had in those pools. But if he got 3/1 he'd have a decent win bet on it.

I wouldn't be so stringent and to not accept unders..but i cant disagree. It depends on how you structure you bets, I personally bet exotics more than anything, there is very little value in win betting, especially on metrop's, too many people with too much information, Superior resources and heaps of cash. Most of the runners with a realistic chance have been found by the bookies, and then crushed by the large punters. Although if your likely return was $100 from $70 worth of trifacta's but also and you can get a return of $90 from win bets, thats a choice.

And of course, i am always weary of anything printed on Monday, BUT then again, why should anyone give you anything in advance for free.

Post deleted. Low content. Moderator 3.

Robden Flyer is a very stupid horse. I didn't ask for much, just for it to be in front of the other horses at the end.